Mathematics Commons^™

A Probability Model For Strategic Bidding On The Price Is Right, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The TV game show “The Price is Right” features a bidding auction called “Contestants’ Row” that rewards the player (out of 4) who bids closest to an item’s value, without overbidding. This paper considers ways in which players can maximize a winning probability based on the player's bidding order. We consider marginal strategies in which players assume opponents are bidding individually perceived values of the merchandise. Based on preceding bids of others, players have information available to create strategies. We consider conditional strategies in which players adjust bids knowing other players are using strategies. The last bidder has a large …

A Comprehensive Analysis Of Team Streakiness In Major League Baseball: 1962-2016, Paul H. Kvam, Zezhong Chen

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

A baseball team would be considered “streaky” if its record exhibits an unusually high number of consecutive wins or losses, compared to what might be expected if the team’s performance does not really depend on whether or not they won their previous game. If an average team in Major League Baseball (i.e., with a record of 81-81) is not streaky, we assume its win probability would be stable at around 50% for most games, outside of peculiar details of day-to-day outcomes, such as whether the game is home or away, who is the starting pitcher, and so on.

In this …

Adjusted Hazard Rate Estimator Based On A Known Censoring Probability, Ülkü Gürler, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In most reliability studies involving censoring, one assumes that censoring probabilities are unknown. We derive a nonparametric estimator for the survival function when information regarding censoring frequency is available. The estimator is constructed by adjusting the Nelson–Aalen estimator to incorporate censoring information. Our results indicate significant improvements can be achieved if available information regarding censoring is used. We compare this model to the Koziol–Green model, which is also based on a form of proportional hazards for the lifetime and censoring distributions. Two examples of survival data help to illustrate the differences in the estimation techniques.

Adjusted Empirical Likelihood Models With Estimating Equations For Accelerated Life Tests, Ni Wang, Jye-Chyi Lu, Di Chen, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article proposes an adjusted empirical likelihood estimation (AMELE) method to model and analyze accelerated life testing data. This approach flexibly and rigorously incorporates distribution assumptions and regression structures by estimating equations within a semiparametric estimation framework. An efficient method is provided to compute the empirical likelihood estimates, and asymptotic properties are studied. Real-life examples and numerical studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology.

Multi-Cause Degradation Path Model: A Case Study On Rubidium Lamp Degradation, Sun Quan, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

At the core of satellite rubidium standard clocks is the rubidium lamp, which is a critical piece of equipment in a satellite navigation system. There are many challenges in understanding and improving the reliability of the rubidium lamp, including the extensive lifetime requirement and the dearth of samples available for destructive life tests. Experimenters rely on degradation experiments to assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable products that seem unlikely to fail under the normal stress conditions, because degradation data can provide extra information about product reliability. Based on recent research on the rubidium lamp, this article presents a multi‐cause …

Extending The Skill Test For Disease Diagnosis, Shu-Chuan Lin, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

For diagnostic tests, we present an extension to the skill plot introduced by Briggs and Zaretski (Biometrics 2008; 64:250–261). The method is motivated by diagnostic measures for osteopetrosis in a study summarized by Hans et al. (The Lancet 1996; 348:511–514). Diagnostic test accuracy is typically defined using the area (or partial area) under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. If partial area is used, the resulting statistic can be highly subjective because the focus region of the ROC curve corresponds to a set of low false‐positive rates that are chosen by the experimenter. This paper introduces a more …

Length Bias In The Measurements Of Carbon Nanotubes, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

To measure carbon nanotube lengths, atomic force microscopy and special software are used to identify and measure nanotubes on a square grid. Current practice does not include nanotubes that cross the grid, and, as a result, the sample is length-biased. The selection bias model can be demonstrated through Buffon’s needle problem, extended to general curves that more realistically represent the shape of nanotubes observed on a grid. In this article, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is constructed for the length distribution of the nanotubes, and the consequences of the length bias are examined. Probability plots reveal that the corrected length …

Load Sharing Models, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Consider a system of components whose lifetimes are governed by a probability distribution. Load sharing refers to a model of stochastic interdependency between components that operate within a system. If components are set up in a parallel system (see Parallel, Series, and Series–Parallel Systems) for example, the system survives as long as at least one component is operating. In a typical load-sharing system, once a component fails, the remaining components suffer an increase in failure rate due to the extra “load” they must encumber due to the failed component.

Degradation Models, Suk Joo Bae, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Reliability testing typically generates product lifetime data, but for some tests, covariate information about the wear and tear on the product during the life test can provide additional insight into the product’s lifetime distribution. This usage, or degradation, can be the physical parameters of the product (e.g., corrosion thickness on a metal plate) or merely indicated through product performance (e.g., the luminosity of a light emitting diode). The measurements made across the product’s lifetime are degradation data, and degradation analysis is the statistical tool for providing inference about the lifetime distribution from the degradation data.

Degradation Models And Implied Lifetime Distributions, Suk Joo Bae, Way Kuo, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In experiments where failure times are sparse, degradation analysis is useful for the analysis of failure time distributions in reliability studies. This research investigates the link between a practitioner's selected degradation model and the resulting lifetime model. Simple additive and multiplicative models with single random effects are featured. Results show that seemingly innocuous assumptions of the degradation path create surprising restrictions on the lifetime distribution. These constraints are described in terms of failure rate and distribution classes.

Statistical Models For Hot Electron Degradation In Nano-Scaled Mosfet Devices, Suk Joo Bae, Seong-Joon Kim, Way Kuo, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In a MOS structure, the generation of hot carrier interface states is a critical feature of the item's reliability. On the nano-scale, there are problems with degradation in transconductance, shift in threshold voltage, and decrease in drain current capability. Quantum mechanics has been used to relate this decrease to degradation, and device failure. Although the lifetime, and degradation of a device are typically used to characterize its reliability, in this paper we model the distribution of hot-electron activation energies, which has appeal because it exhibits a two-point discrete mixture of logistic distributions. The logistic mixture presents computational problems that are …

A Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model For Ncaa Basketball, Paul H. Kvam, Joel Sokol

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and …

Reliability Modeling In Spatially Distributed Logistics System, Ni Wang, Jye-Chyi Lu, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article proposes methods for modeling service reliability in a supply chain. The logistics system in a supply chain typically consists of thousands of retail stores along with multiple distribution centers (DC). Products are transported between DC & stores through multiple routes. The service reliability depends on DC location layouts, distances from DC to stores, time requirements for product replenishing at stores, DC's capability for supporting store demands, and the connectivity of transportation routes. Contingent events such as labor disputes, bad weather, road conditions, traffic situations, and even terrorist threats can have great impacts on a system's reliability. Given the …

Statistical Reliability With Applications, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This chapter reviews fundamental ideas in reliability theory and inference. The first part of the chapter accounts for lifetime distributions that are used in engineering reliability analyis, including general properties of reliability distributions that pertain to lifetime for manufactured products. Certain distributions are formulated on the basis of simple physical properties, and other are more or less empirical. The first part of the chapter ends with a description of graphical and analytical methods to find appropriate lifetime distributions for a set of failure data.

The second part of the chapter describes statistical methods for analyzing reliability data, including maximum likelihood …

Estimating Load-Sharing Properties In A Dynamic Reliability System, Paul H. Kvam, Edsel A. Peña

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

An estimator for the load-share parameters in an equal load-share model is derived based on observing k-component parallel systems of identical components that have a continuous distribution function F (˙) and failure rate r (˙). In an equal load-share model, after the first of k components fails, failure rates for the remaining components change from r (t) to γ1r (t), then to γ2r (t) after the next failure, and so on. On the basis of observations on n independent and identical systems, a semiparametric estimator of the component baseline …

Reliability Estimation Based On System Data With An Unknown Load Share Rule, Hyoungtae Kim, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

We consider a multicomponent load-sharing system in which the failure rate of a given component depends on the set of working components at any given time. Such systems can arise in software reliability models and in multivariate failure-time models in biostatistics, for example. A load-share rule dictates how stress or load is redistributed to the surviving components after a component fails within the system. In this paper, we assume the load share rule is unknown and derive methods for statistical inference on load-share parameters based on maximum likelihood. Components with (individual) constant failure rates are observed in two environments: (1) …

A Nonlinear Random Coefficients Model For Degradation Testing, Suk Joo Bae, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

As an alternative to traditional life testing, degradation tests can be effective in assessing product reliability when measurements of degradation leading to failure can be observed. This article presents a degradation model for highly reliable light displays, such as plasma display panels and vacuum fluorescent displays (VFDs). Standard degradation models fail to capture the burn-in characteristics of VFDs, when emitted light actually increases up to a certain point in time before it decreases (or degrades) continuously. Random coefficients are used to model this phenomenon in a nonlinear way, which allows for a nonmonotonic degradation path. In many situations, the relative …

Nonparametric Estimation Of A Distribution Subject To A Stochastic Precedence Constraint, Miguel A. Arcones, Paul H. Kvam, Francisco J. Samaniego

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

For any two random variables X and Y with distributions F and G defined on [0,∞), X is said to stochastically precede Y if P(X≤Y) ≥ 1/2. For independent X and Y, stochastic precedence (denoted by X≤_spY) is equivalent to E[G(X–)] ≤ 1/2. The applicability of stochastic precedence in various statistical contexts, including reliability modeling, tests for distributional equality versus various alternatives, and the relative performance of comparable tolerance bounds, is discussed. The problem of estimating the underlying distribution(s) of experimental data under the assumption that they obey a …

Common Cause Failure Prediction Using Data Mapping, Paul H. Kvam, J. Glenn Miller

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

To estimate power plant reliability, a probabilistic safety assessment might combine failure data from various sites. Because dependent failures are a critical concern in the nuclear industry, combining failure data from component groups of different sizes is a challenging problem. One procedure, called data mapping, translates failure data across component group sizes. This includes common cause failures, which are simultaneous failure events of two or more components in a group. In this paper, we present methods for predicting future plant reliability using mapped common cause failure data. The prediction technique is motivated by discrete failure data from emergency diesel generators …

Ranked Set Sampling From Location-Scale Families Of Symmetric Distributions, Ram C. Tiwari, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Statistical inference based on ranked set sampling has primarily been motivated by nonparametric problems. However, the sampling procedure can provide an improved estimator of the population mean when the population is partially known. In this article, we consider estimation of the population mean and variance for the location-scale families of distributions. We derive and compare different unbiased estimators of these parameters based on independent replications of a ranked set sample of size n. Large sample properties, along with asymptotic relative efficiencies, help identify which estimators are best suited for different location-scale distributions.

Nonparametric Bayes Estimation Of Contamination Levels Using Observations From The Residual Distribution, Paul H. Kvam, Ram C. Tiwari, Jyoti N. Zalkikar

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

A nonparametric Bayes estimator of the survival function is derived for right censored data where additional observations from the residual distribution are available. The estimation is motivated by data on contamination concentrations for chromium from one of the EPA's toxic waste sites. The residual sample can be produced by hot spot sampling, where only samples above a given threshold value are collected. The Dirichlet process is used to formulate prior information about the chromium contamination, and we compare the Bayes estimator of the mean concentration level to other estimators currently considered by the EPA and other sources. The Bayes estimator …

Bayes Estimation Of A Distribution Function Using Ranked Set Samples, Paul H. Kvam, Ram C. Tiwari

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Aranked set sample (RSS), if not balanced, is simply a sample of independent order statistics generated from the same underlying distribution F. Kvam and Samaniego (1994) derived maximum likelihood estimates of F for a general RSS. In many applications, including some in the environmental sciences, prior information about F is available to supplement the data-based inference. In such cases, Bayes estimators should be considered for improved estimation. Bayes estimation (using the squared error loss function) of the unknown distribution function F is investigated with such samples. Additionally, the Bayes generalized maximum likelihood estimator (GMLE) is derived. An iterative scheme based …

Fisher Information In Weighted Distributions, Satish Iyengar, Paul H. Kvam, Harshinder Singh

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Standard inference procedures assume a random sample from a population with density f_μ(x) for estimating the parameter μ. However, there are many applications in which the available data are a biased sample instead. Fisher modeled biased sampling using a weight function w(x) ¸ 0, and constructed a weighted distribution with a density f_μ^w(x) that is proportional to w(x)f_μ(x). In this paper, we assume that f_μ(x) belongs to an exponential family, and study the Fisher information about μ in observations obtained from some commonly arising weighted distributions: (i) the k^th order …

A Quantile‐Based Approach For Relative Efficiency Measurement, Paul M. Griffin, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Two popular approaches for efficiency measurement are a non‐stochastic approach called data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a parametric approach called stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Both approaches have modeling difficulty, particularly for ranking firm efficiencies. In this paper, a new parametric approach using quantile statistics is developed. The quantile statistic relies less on the stochastic model than SFA methods, and accounts for a firm's relationship to the other firms in the study by acknowledging the firm's influence on the empirical model, and its relationship, in terms of similarity of input levels, to the other firms.

Computational Problems With Binomial Failure Rate Model And Incomplete Common Cause Failure Reliability Data, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In estimating the reliability of a system of components, it is ordinarily assumed that the component lifetimes are independently distributed. This assumption usually alleviates the difficulty of analyzing complex systems, but it is seldom true that the failure of one component in an interactive system has no effect on the lifetimes of the other components. Often, two or more components will fail simultaneously due to a common cause event. Such an incident is called a common cause failure (CCF), and is now recognized as an important contribution to system failure in various applications of reliability. We examine current methods for …