Environmental Sciences Commons^™

Paleolimnological Data Synthesis To Assess Long-Term Ecological Change In Vermont Lakes, Ismar Biberovic

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Lakes are excellent early indicators of environmental change on a landscape scale. Due to their connectedness in the landscape, any alteration of land-cover extends beyond a single watershed and can only be amplified by the effects of climate change. These processes can reflect differently across lakes of various characteristics, however, combined, they can leave a lasting impact on biogeochemical processes of a lake, resulting in profound effects on biological communities residing in it. Lake sediments are terrific archives that integrate and preserve this evidence, which then allows us to investigate the extent to which a lake has changed given its …

Tile Drainage Flow Partitioning And Phosphorus Export In Vermont Usa, Ryan Ruggiero, Donald Ross, Joshua W. Faulkner

Lake Champlain Sea Grant Institute

Tile drainage (TD) has been identified as a potential non-point source of phosphorus (P) pollution and subsequent water quality issues. Three fields with TD in Vermont USA were monitored to characterize hydrology and P export. Fields were in corn silage and used minimal tillage and cover cropping practices. Preferential flow path (PFP) activity was explored by separating TD flow into flow pathway and source connectivity components using two hydrograph separation techniques, electrical conductivity end member unmixing, and hydrograph recession analysis. TD was the dominant P export pathway because of higher total discharge. Drought conditions during this study limited surface runoff, …

Changing Environmental Conditions And The Response And Potential Adaptability Of Freshwater Whitefishes, Taylor R. Stewart

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Changes in winter conditions, such as increased temperatures and decreased ice coverage, have been observed worldwide. The responses of many lake fish populations to changing winters are projected to be inadequate to counter the speed and magnitude of climate change. Such environmental changes have been hypothesized to explain the low recruitment observed in freshwater whitefishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae). My research focused on measuring the impact changing winter conditions may have on coregonine reproductive phenology and developmental and morphological traits to better predict changes in coregonine populations as a result of climate change.

I used experimental incubation methods and modeling to explore …

Revealing The Direct And Indirect Effects Of Climate Change On Soil Nutrient Dynamics And Forage Resources In Mountain Ecosystems, Kenna Elizabeth Rewcastle

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Modern climate change is already altering the structure and function ofecosystems around the world in nontrivial ways. Mountain ecosystems in particular will continue to experience a greater magnitude and rate of climatic warming than the global average, threatening the stability of key ecosystem processes like nutrient cycling as well as the supply of benefits from ecosystem services provided by mountains. While significant advancements have been made to address the direct effects of rising temperatures on nutrient cycling dynamics, our understanding of the synergies between the direct effects of warming and the indirect effects of climate change, mediated by the response …

The Origins Of Manufactured Dissent And The Efficacy Of Climate Change Narratives, Emma Elisabeth Giering

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

The year of 2020 revealed many things about the fragility of socially constructed institutions and the public trust which grants such entities legitimacy, which is perhaps what reinvigorated social discourse surrounding the existential threat posed by climate change. Amid a pandemic, Americans watched wildfires engulf much of the west coast, environmental regulations unravel in the hands of the Trump administration, and Wall Street begin trading futures contracts on the U.S.’s water supply. Given the ever-expanding record of environmental travesties, how are citizens to respond, and from where should they derive their inspiration for response?

This thesis answers the above question …

Climate Impacts Associated With Reduced Diet Diversity In Children Across Nineteen Countries, Meredith T. Niles, Benjamin F. Emery, Serge Wiltshire, Molly E. Brown, Brendan Fisher, Taylor H. Ricketts

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

It is widely anticipated that climate change will negatively affect both food security and diet diversity. Diet diversity is especially critical for children as it correlates with macro and micronutrient intake important for child development. Despite these anticipated links, little empirical evidence has demonstrated a relationship between diet diversity and climate change, especially across large datasets spanning multiple global regions and with more recent climate data. Here we use survey data from 19 countries and more than 107 000 children, coupled with 30 years of precipitation and temperature data, to explore the relationship of climate to child diet diversity while …

Enhancing Ecosystem Services And Climate Resilience In Agriculture: A Transdisciplinary Approach, Alissa White

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

A complex of social, economic and environmental factors influences agricultural management in the northeastern US. Farmers often balance goals of farm viability, environmental stewardship, and resilience to climate change, while also under public pressure to enhance the provisioning of ecosystem services from their landscapes. Changes in farm management have been identified as cost-effective ways to address both local water quality issues, and global anthropogenic influences on greenhouse gas concentrations. Individual decision-making on the part of farmers that determines the fate of ecosystem service provisioning from agroecosystems, placing increasing importance on understanding how policy, outreach and research can support farmers’ capacity …

Evaluating The Distributional Equity Of Ecosystem Services Under Land Use And Climate Change Scenarios, Jesse David Gourevitch

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Nature supports human well-being and sustainable development through the provision of ecosystem services (ES). While ES have been mapped, modeled, and valued with multiple methods by a wide range of disciplines, understanding the distribution of ES benefits among individuals and groups within society remains a critical gap. Addressing this gap is essential for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. In this dissertation, I present four studies that evaluate the distribution of ES among demographic and socioeconomic groups under a range of land use and climate change scenarios.

In my first chapter, I project changes in the supply, demand, and …

Water Use Governance In A Temperate Region: Implications For Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation In The Northeastern United States, Rachel E. Schattman, Meredith T. Niles, Hannah M. Aitken

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Climate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise …

Smallholder Farmers Spend Credit Primarily On Food: Gender Differences And Food Security Implications In A Changing Climate, Marissa Carranza, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

In many low-income nations agriculture is used as the primary source of income, which in the face of a changing climate, is known to be at considerable risk for the smallholder farmers that rely on it. Financial resources may enable smallholder farmers to implement adaptation practices and diversify income and investments, which has the potential to affect household income and food security. Here we explore relationships between access to different types of financial resources among male and female-headed households and women vs. men, use of financial resources, and its relationship to food security. We use data from the CGIAR Climate …

A Comparative Analysis Of Governance And Leadership In Agricultural Development Policy Networks, Jessica Rudnick, Meredith Niles, Mark Lubell, Laura Cramer

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Agricultural development initiatives feature many public and private organizations working together across sectors and scales to pursue the goals of food security and climate resilience. Policy networks are considered a crucial ingredient for the learning and cooperation needed to effectively implement agricultural development projects and increase community resiliency, yet very little comparative empirical data has been collected to assess where and how these networks operate. We contribute to filling this gap by characterizing the governance and leadership patterns within agricultural development policy networks that connect organizations working on climate resilience and food security activities in 14 smallholder farming communities across …

Food And Earth Systems: Priorities For Climate Change Adaptation And Mitigation For Agriculture And Food Systems, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Bruce M. Campbell, Peter J.M. Cooper, James W. Hansen, Todd Rosenstock, Eva Wollenberg

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Human activities and their relation with land, through agriculture and forestry, are significantly impacting Earth system functioning. Specifically, agriculture has increasingly become a key sector for adaptation and mitigation initiatives that address climate change and help ensure food security for a growing global population. Climate change and agricultural outcomes influence our ability to reach targets for at least seven of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. By 2015, 103 nations had committed themselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, while 102 countries had prioritized agriculture in their adaptation agenda. Adaptation and mitigation actions within agriculture still receive insufficient support across …

Does Household Capital Mediate The Uptake Of Agricultural Land, Crop, And Livestock Adaptations? Evidence From The Indo-Gangetic Plains (India), Sameer H. Shah, Courtney Hammond Wagner, Udita Sanga, Hogeun Park, Lia Helena Monteiro De Lima Demange, Carolina Gueiros, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Farmers in the Indo-Gangetic Plains produce much of the wheat and rice grown in India. However, food production and millions of farm-based livelihoods in this region will continue to be adversely affected by hydro-climatic change and variation, reduced land productivity, and declining groundwater levels. Thus, agricultural adaptations are essential for protecting and improving upon intersecting goals of food security, poverty alleviation, and wellbeing. Household “capital” (e.g., natural, human, financial, physical, and social) is commonly cited as an indicator of livelihood adaptability and innovation. We develop a series of mediated structural equation models to empirically evaluate the validity of capital as …

Local Farmer Knowledge Of Adaptive Management On Diversified Vegetable And Berry Farms In The Northeastern Us, Alissa White

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Agricultural adaptation to climate change is notoriously context specific. Recently updated projections for the Northeastern US forecast increasingly severe and erratic precipitation events which pose significant risks to every sector of agricultural production in the region. Vegetable and berry farmers are among the most vulnerable to the risks of severe precipitation and drought due to the intensive soil and crop management strategies which characterize of this kind of production. To successfully adapt to a changing climate, these farmers need information which is tailored for the unique challenges of vegetable and berry production, framed at the level of climate impacts, and …

Climate Change And Land Use/Cover Change Impacts On Watershed Hydrology, Nutrient Dynamics – A Case Study In Missisquoi River Watershed, Linyuan Shang

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Watershed regulation of water, carbon and nutrient dynamics support food, drinking water and human development. Projected climate changes and land use/cover change (LUCC) have been identified as drivers of watershed nutrient and hydrological processes and are likely to happen jointly in the future decades. Studying climate change and LUCC impacts on watersheds' streamflow and nutrients dynamics is therefore essential for future watershed management.

This research aimed to unveil how climate change and LUCC affect water and nutrient dynamics in the Missisquoi River watershed, Vermont. We used 12 scenarios of future climate data (2021 – 2050) generated by three GCMs (ccsm4, …

Farm Service Agency Employee Intentions To Use Weather And Climate Data In Professional Services, Rachel E. Schattman, Gabrielle Roesch-Mcnally, Sarah Wiener, Meredith T. Niles, David Y. Hollinger

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of …

Mixed Methods Approach To Understanding Farmer And Agricultural Advisor Perceptions Of Climate Change And Adaptation In Vermont, United States, Rachel E. Schattman, V. Ernesto Méndez, Scott C. Merrill, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The relationships among farmers’ belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climate-related risks that differ from those faced in other regions. We used a mixed methods approach to examine northeast farmers’ perceptions of climate change and climate-related risks over time, and perceived trade-offs associated with on-farm practices. Our investigation shows how northeastern farmers think about climate-risk, and what they are doing to address it.

The Climate-Smart Village Approach: Framework Of An Integrative Strategy For Scaling Up Adaptation Options In Agriculture, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Andy Jarvis, Bruce M. Campbell, Robert B. Zougmoré, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Leocadio S. Sebastian, James Kinyangi, Osana Bonilla-Findji, Maren Radeny, John Recha, Deissy Martinez-Baron, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Sophia Huyer, Philip Thornton, Eva Wollenberg, James Hansen, Patricia Alvarez-Toro, Andrés Aguilar-Ariza, David Arango-Londoño, Victor Patiño-Bravo, Ovidio Rivera, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Bui Tan Yen

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It …

Climate Change And Food Systems: Assessing Impacts And Opportunities, Meredith T. Niles, Richie Ahuja, Jimena M. Esquivel, Nelson Mango, Mil Duncan, Martin Heller, Cristina Tirado

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Mountain Forests And Sustainable Development: The Potential For Achieving The United Nations' 2030 Agenda, Georg Gratzer, William S. Keeton

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

The world is facing numerous and severe environmental, social, and economic challenges. To address these, in September 2015 the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted the resolution Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The United Nations' 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and their 169 targets are ambitious, broadly encompassing, and indivisible. They are intended to guide nations and communities toward attaining healthy and peaceful livelihoods free of poverty and hunger. Collectively the goals envision sound and safe environments, where global threats like climate change are successfully combated through both mitigation and adaptation. Agenda 2030 envisages sustainable …

Evaluation Of A Proposal For Reliable Low-Cost Grid Power With 100% Wind, Water, And Solar, Christopher T.M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, Paul D.H. Hines, Paulina Jaramillo, Daniel M. Kammen, Jane C.S. Long, M. Granger Morgan, Adam Reed, Varun Sivaram, James Sweeney, George R. Tynan, David G. Victor, John P. Weyant, Jay F. Whitacre

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

A number of analyses, meta-Analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of …

Transitions In Climate And Energy Discourse Between Hurricanes Katrina And Sandy, Emily M. Cody, Jennie C. Stephens, James P. Bagrow, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Christopher M. Danforth

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public discourse. Media coverage of extreme weather events simultaneously shapes and reflects public discourse on climate issues. Here, we analyze climate and energy newspaper coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina …

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …

High Flow Events As Hot Moments Of Reactive Fe And P Export: Impacts Of Land Cover And Seasonality, Braden Rosenberg

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

High flow events often comprise the majority of annual discharge and riverine geochemical flux of phosphorus (P) and metals such as iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) due to glacial melt, snowmelt, and storm-driven sustained high flow. Aquatic ecosystem productivity in receiving water bodies such as Lake Champlain and the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) are impacted by the riverine import of nutrients. The magnitude of these high flow events can be a strong predictor of receiving water body conditions, and in some cases can contribute to eutrophication. We explore the intersection of high flow events and land cover in contrasting catchments …

Impacts Of Projected Climate Change Over The Lake Champlain Basin In Vermont, Justin Guilbert, Brian Beckage, Jonathan M. Winter, Radley M. Horton, Timothy Perkins, Arne Bomblies

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above …

Land Use Adaptation To Climate Change: Economic Damages From Land-Falling Hurricanes In The Atlantic And Gulf States Of The Usa, 1900-2005, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland) areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic …

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …