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University of Massachusetts Boston
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
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Full-Text Articles in Environmental Sciences
Cellulosic Biofuels: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Cellulosic Biofuels: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
In this paper we structure, obtain and analyze results of an expert elicitation on the relationship between U. S. government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies. While there was disagreement among the experts on each of the technologies, the patterns of disagreement suggest several distinct strategies. Selective Thermal Processing appears to be the most promising path, with the main question being how much funding is required to achieve success. Thus, a staged investment in this path looks promising. With respect to gasification, there remains fundamental disagreement over whether success is possible even …
Carbon Capture And Storage: Combining Economic Analysis With Expert Elicitations To Inform Climate Policy, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Carbon Capture And Storage: Combining Economic Analysis With Expert Elicitations To Inform Climate Policy, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler
Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series
The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant amount of disagreement between experts, even over the most mature technology; and this disagreement is most pronounced in regards to cost estimates. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the …