Earth Sciences Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Marine Investigations Of Greece's Santorini Volcanic Field, Haraldur Sigurdsson, Steven Carey, Matina Alexandri, Georges Vougioukalakis, Katherine Croff, Chris Roman, Dimitris Sakellariou, Christos Anagnostou, Grigoris Rousakis, Chrysanti Ioakim, Aleka Goguo, Dionysis Ballas, Thanassis Misaridis, Paraskevi Nomikou

Christopher N. Roman

The most recent major explosive eruption of the Santorini volcano in Greece—around 3600 years before present (B.P.), often referred to as the Minoan eruption—is one of the largest volcanic events known in historical time and has been the subject of intense volcanological and archeological studies [Druitt et al., 1999]. The submarine volcano Kolumbo, located seven kilometers northeast of Santorini and associated with Santorini's tectonic system, erupted explosively in 1650 A.D., resulting in fatalities on the island of Thera [Fouqué, 1879]. A large fraction of the erupted products from the Minoan eruption has been deposited in the …

Dissolved Organic Matter Composition And Bioavailability Reflect Ecosystem Productivity In The Western Arctic Ocean, Yuan Shen, Cedric Fichot, Ronald Benner

Faculty Publications

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved amino acids (TDAA) were measured in high (Chukchi Sea) and low (Beaufort Sea) productivity regions of the western Arctic Ocean to investigate the composition and bioavailability of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Concentrations and DOC-normalized yields of TDAA in Chukchi surface waters were relatively high, indicating an accumulation of bioavailable DOM. High concentrations and yields of TDAA were also observed in the upper halocline of slope and basin waters, indicating off-shelf transport of bioavailable DOM from the Chukchi Sea. In contrast, concentrations and yields of TDAA in Beaufort surface waters were relatively low, indicting …

Autumn Migration Of Mississippi Flyway Mallards As Determined By Satellite Telemetry, David George G. Krementz, Kwasi Asante, Luke W. Naylor

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We used satellite telemetry to study autumn migration timing, routes, stopover duration, and final destinations of mallards Anas platyrhynchos captured the previous spring in Arkansas from 2004 to 2007. Of those mallards that still had functioning transmitters on September 15 (n = 55), the average date when autumn migration began was October 23 (SE = 2.62 d; range = September 17–December 7). For those mallards that stopped for .1 d during migration, the average stopover length was 15.4 d (SE = 1.47 d). Ten mallards migrated nonstop to wintering sites. The eastern Dakotas were a heavily utilized stopover area. The …

A Watershed Scale Evaluation Of Selected Second Generation Biofeedstocks On Water Quality, Gurdeep Singh

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study compares a novel simulation approach to the conventional Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeler's approach for targeting biofuel crop production on marginal lands. In conventional SWAT modeling approach, non-spatial definition of hydrological response units (HRUs) results in the simulation of biofuel crops on both marginal and non-marginal land. This study provides an alternative approach in which a marginal-land raster was integrated into the land use and land cover (LULC) raster in such a way that the land uses were divided into marginal and non-marginal components. This modified LULC was used for model setup which resulted in marginal …

Glacial Shortcut Of Arctic Sea-Ice Transport, Michael Stärz, Xun Gong, Rüdiger Stein, Dennis A. Darby, Frank Kauker, Gerrit Lohmann

OES Faculty Publications

Due to the lack of data, the extent, thickness and drift patterns of sea ice and icebergs in the glacial Arctic remains poorly constrained. Earlier studies are contradictory proposing either a cessation of the marine cryosphere or an ice drift system operating like present-day. Here we examine the marine Arctic cryosphere during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using a high-resolution, regional ocean-sea ice model. Whereas modern sea ice in the western Arctic Basin can circulate in the Beaufort Gyre for decades, our model studies present an extreme shortcut of glacial ice drift. In more detail, our results show a clockwise …

Ecological Interactions Affecting Diatom Climate Reconstructions In Prairie Saline Lakes Of The Northern Great Plains (Usa), Courtney R. Wigdahl

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Sedimentary diatom profiles from saline lakes are frequently used to reconstruct lakewater salinity as an indicator of drought. However, diatom-inferred salinity reconstructions (DI-salinity) from geographically-close sites in the Great Plains (USA) have yielded disparate results. Here, I explore how within-lake ecological processes, such as physical changes in lake habitat and zooplankton grazing pressure, may affect the accuracy of diatom-based salinity reconstructions. I examined how relationships differed among drought, lake-level change, and diatom community structure over the last century by developing three-dimensional models of planktic:benthic habitat (P:B) relationships with lake level change. I explored the potential for zooplankton grazing influence by …

2000 Year Moisture Source Record From A Central Nevada Speleothem, Paul Pribyl

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The goal of this study was to determine the moisture source of winter precipitation in the central Great Basin for the past 2000 years, and to elucidate the role of Pacific Ocean and North American climate variability modes in driving observed droughts of the region around the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA, ~900-1300 CE). Here a high resolution (~2-4 year) precisely dated moisture source reconstruction is presented from the δ18O values of speleothem LC-1 collected from Leviathan Cave in central Nevada, which reveals significant δ18O variability. I attribute the δ18O variability to changes in winter-season moisture circulation over the past 2000 …

An Estimate Of Groundwater Recharge In The Nabogo River Basin, Ghana Using Water Table Fluctuation Method And Chloride Mass Balance, Melanie Lynn Krautstrunk

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The Cambrian-Precambrian fractured sandstone aquifer in the Nabogo River Basin in the Sahelian Northern Region in Ghana is one of the most important sources for fresh water supply for the local rural communities there. Recent population growth and commercial agricultural interests in this region could have an impact on this critical water resource. Groundwater recharge estimates are determined in this study using the Water Table Fluctuation Method and Chloride Mass Balance and can be applied to future sustainability studies of the region's water resources. Recharge estimates of the Water Table Fluctuation Method are in a range of 10-143 mm/yr or …

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience For Weather And Climate Information?, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Tonya Haigh, Amber Saylor Mase, Jim Angel, Chad Hart, Cody Knutson, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun Jia Lo, Jean Mcguire, Lois Wright Morton, Jennifer Perron, Dennis Todey, Melissa Widhalm

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this …

Comparison And Validation Of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Trmm) Rainfall Algorithms In Tropical Cyclones, Joseph P. Zagrodnik

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the …

Predictability Of Biomass Burning In Response To Climate Changes, A.-L. Daniau, Megan Walsh

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from …

Development Of A Ground Based Remote Sensing Approach For Direct Evaluation Of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Yuzhe He, Yonghua Wu, Barry Gross, Fred Moshary, Samir Ahmed

Publications and Research

The possible interaction and modification of cloud properties due to aerosols is one of the most poorly understood mechanisms within climate studies, resulting in the most significant uncertainty as regards radiation budgeting. In this study, we explore direct ground based remote sensing methods to assess the Aerosol-Cloud Indirect Effect directly, as space-borne retrievals are not directly suitable for simultaneous aerosol/cloud retrievals. To illustrate some of these difficulties, a statistical assessment of existing multispectral imagers on geostationary (e.g., GOES)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite retrievals of the Cloud Droplet Effective Radius (Reff) showed significant biases especially at larger solar zenith angles, …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Drinking Water Resource Directory, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

This document is intended to help local and regional planning agencies, and their constituent water utilities, integrate drinking water infrastructure planning and investments into plans for sustainable development. Resources listed here provide guidance on making land use decisions that protect water resources, setting adequate and sustainable drinking water rates, controlling water loss, funding water infrastructure projects, and managing water utilities.

The directory was developed by the Environmental Finance Center Network through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Environmental Protection Agency. Through this program, EFCN is providing capacity …

Late Holocene Sedimentation And Paleoenvironmental History For The Tidal Marshes Of The Potomac And Rappahannock Rivers, Tributaries To Chesapeake Bay, Neil E. Tibert, J. Bradford Hubeny, Mark Abbott, Joseph M. Kiker, Lindsay J. Walker, Shawn Mckenzie

Virginia Journal of Science

Instrumental tide gauge records indicate that the modern rates of sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay more than double the global average of 1.2-1.5 mm yr-1. The primary objective for this study is to establish a relative depositional history for the tidal marshes of the Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers that will help us improve our understanding of processes that influence sedimentation in the proximal tributaries of Chesapeake Bay. Marsh cores were collected from Blandfield Point VA, Tappahannock VA, and Potomac Creek VA. The sedimentary facies include: 1) a lower unit of organic-poor, grey clay with fine sand and silt layers …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Libraries At The University Of Massachusetts Amherst: Seeking An International Perspective, Maxine G. Schmidt

Maxine G Schmidt

Presentation delivered to librarians in China, Japan and South Korea as part of my sabbatical research on the use of libraries by Asian students in their home countries.

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett

CCPO Publications

Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation, separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis shows that rates of SLR have increased from similar to 1-3 mm y(-1) in the 1930s to similar to 4-10 mm y(-1) in 2011, an acceleration of similar to 0.05-0.10 mm y(-2) that is …

A Centennial Record Of Paleosalinity Change In The Tidal Reaches Of The Potomac And Rappahannock Rivers, Tributaries To Chesapeake Bay, Neil E. Tibert, Lindsay J. Walker, William P. Patterson, J. Bradford Hubeny, Emma Jones, Olivia R. Cooper

Virginia Journal of Science

Gravity and push cores from the Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers (Virginia Tidewater) were collected from central and proximal estuarine zones with known seasonal salinity stratification. The lowermost microfossil associations in the cores comprise alternating ostracode populations of Cyprideis salebrosa and Cytheromorpha. This microfossil association gives way to an oligohaline association dominated by the freshwater ostracode Darwinula stevensoni. Stable oxygen isotope values (δ¹⁸O) of Rapphannock Cyprideis salebrosa are highly variable ranging between -6.6 to -3.2‰ VPDB. δ¹⁸O values for Potomac Cytheromorpha fuscata range from -8.2 to -3.2‰ VPDB. Positive excursions in δ¹⁸O values …

Catching Air - Those Magnificent Jumping Suwannee Sturgeons, Ken Sulak

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

It starts deep at the bottom of the dark silent river, three to four powerful tail beats and three sharp acoustic clicks. Then, a sudden upturn of the body and the fish explodes upward, 100 pounds going vertical, catching air, lots of air. A good jump can power a big fish, six to nine feet into the air. You have to be quick to get a photo, hang time is only about a second, but an accomplished jump by a big old Suwannee River Gulf Sturgeon is impressive; a magnificent display of power. The exit is almost vertical. The tail …

The Geologic Records Of Dust In The Quaternary, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Study of geologic records of dust composition, sources and deposition rates is important for understanding the role of dust in the overall planetary radiation balance, fertilization of organisms in the world’s oceans, nutrient additions to the terrestrial biosphere and soils, and for paleoclimatic reconstructions. Both glacial and non-glacial processes produce fine-grained particles that can be transported by the wind. Geologic records of dust flux occur in a number of depositional archives for sediments: (1) loess deposits; (2) lake sediments; (3) soils; (4) deep-ocean basins; and (5) ice sheets and smaller glaciers. These archives have several characteristics that make them highly …

Impact Of Diatom-Diazotroph Associations On Carbon Export In The Amazon River Plume, Ly Yeung, Wm Berelsen, Et Al, Deborah K. Steinberg, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Offshore tropical river plumes are associated with areas of high N-2 fixation (diazotrophy) and biological carbon drawdown. Episodic blooms of the diatom Hemiaulus hauckii and its diazotrophic cyanobacterial symbiont Richelia intracellularis are believed to dominate that carbon drawdown, but the mechanism is not well understood. We report primary productivity associated with blooms of these diatom-diazotroph assemblages (DDAs) in the offshore plume of the Amazon River using simultaneous measurements of O-2/Ar ratios and the triple-isotope composition of dissolved O-2. In these blooms, we observe peaks in net community productivity, but relatively small changes in gross primary productivity, suggesting that DDA blooms …

It Takes A Global Sustainability Movement, John C. Dernbach

John C. Dernbach

No abstract provided.

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

Bioactive Trace Metal Distributions And Biogeochemical Controls In The Southern Ocean, Christopher Measures, Mariko Hatta, Maxime Grand

Faculty Publications

Extensive sampling in many regions of the Southern Ocean has demonstrated that surface water concentrations of dissolved Fe are low enough to limit phytoplankton growth. In contrast, there is currently no evidence that other bioactive elements (e.g., Mn, Zn, Co) are similarly limiting. Although atmospheric input of dissolved Fe to Southern Ocean surface waters appears to be low, resuspension of sediments from shallow regions around islands and the Antarctic coastline can inject significant amounts of Fe into the surrounding waters, stimulating primary production and providing a natural laboratory for studying the response of biological systems to natural Fe fertilization processes. …

The Ross Sea: In A Sea Of Change, Walker O. Smith, Peter N. Sedwick, Kevin R. Arrigo, David G. Ainley, Alejandro H. Orsi

OES Faculty Publications

The Ross Sea, the most productive region in the Antarctic, reaches farther south than any body of water in the world. While its food web is relatively intact, its oceanography, biogeochemistry, and sea ice coverage have been changing dramatically, and likely will continue to do so in the future. Sea ice cover and persistence have been increasing, in contrast to the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sector, which has resulted in reduced open water duration for its biota. Models predict that as the ozone hole recovers, ice cover will begin to diminish. Currents on the continental shelf will likely change in the coming century, …

Ipads In The Classroom Pilot Project, Anu Vedantham, Caitlin Shanley

Anu Vedantham

Sediment Mixing In The Tropical Pacific And Radiolarian Stratigraphy, Ted C. Moore Jr, Larry A. Mayer, Mitchell Lyle

Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping

The reworking of older radiolarian microfossils into near-surface sediments of the tropical Pacific has long been the source of confusion for the development of radiolarian stratigraphy and of puzzlement over the mechanism(s) that could effect such pervasive reworking. Widespread dissolution “pits” in the sediments of the tropical Pacific are believed to be associated with hydrothermal circulation cells in the older oceanic crust and are here linked to processes which expose older sections and inject older non-carbonate material into near-bottom waters. Discharging waters of these circulation cells tend to dissolve carbonate in near-surface sediments; thus, only the non-carbonate material (including radiolarians) …

Groundwater Quality Assessment From Domestic Water Wells In The Fayetteville Shale Gas Play Area In Central Arkansas, Anna Marie Nottmeier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study establishes a spatially distributed domestic water well groundwater quality data set, throughout the Fayetteville Shale Gas Play (FSGP) in central Arkansas. The data set facilitates characterization of the geology and groundwater quality across the study area, benefits residents who may have concerns about the potential impacts on their well water quality, and provides a groundwater quality basis to which complaints can be compared and resolved. The assessment included: research of the study area, site reconnaissance, water sampling and collection, interviews with owners of the property, analytical analysis, Quality Assurance and Quality Control, and groundwater data interpretation.

The study …