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Applied Mathematics Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

2022

Differential equations

Virus Diseases

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Full-Text Articles in Applied Mathematics

Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug May 2022

Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Viral hepatitis negatively affects the health of millions, with the worst health outcomes associated with the hepatitis D virus (HDV). Fortunately, HDV is rare and requires prior infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) before it can establish infection and transmit. Here, we develop a mathematical model of HBV and HDV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa to investigate the effects of hepatitis B vaccination on both HBV and HDV. Our findings illustrate a hepatitis B vaccination rate above 0.006 year-1 reduces hepatitis D by over 90%, and a vaccination rate above 0.0221 year-1 reduces hepatitis B by over 90%, …