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Full-Text Articles in Applied Mathematics
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
Theses and Dissertations
Understanding what causes countries to be in a state of violent conflict is of vital importance to developing realistic national strategies on both a regional and global scale. Given these causes, it is important to understand the effects of missing data, how to impute that data, and the interrelation between data elements. Utilizing both open source data and previously generated equations that predict a country’s likelihood to transition conflict statuses, this research projects data into the future and predicts each nations’ subsequent conflict statuses. Future data is populated using a novel approach inspired by stochastic regression imputation. The replicated future …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …
Classifying Failing States, Nathan E. Nysether
Classifying Failing States, Nathan E. Nysether
Theses and Dissertations
The US is heavily involved in the first major war of the 21st Century -- The Global War on Terror (GWOT). As with any militant group, the foundation of the enemy's force is their people. There are two primary strategies for defeating the terrorists and achieving victory in the GWOT. First, we must root out terrorists where they live, train, plan, and recruit and attack them militarily. Second, we must suffocate them by cutting off the supply of new soldiers willing to choose aggression or even death over their current life. This thesis helps to achieve these objectives by applying …