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Full-Text Articles in Applied Mathematics
Understanding Covid-19 Dynamics And The Effects Of Interventions In The Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study, Jamie M. Caldwell, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, Robert Neil F. Leong, Richard T. Gray, James G. Wood, Linh-Vi Le, Emma S. Mcbryde, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer
Understanding Covid-19 Dynamics And The Effects Of Interventions In The Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study, Jamie M. Caldwell, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, Robert Neil F. Leong, Richard T. Gray, James G. Wood, Linh-Vi Le, Emma S. Mcbryde, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer
Mathematics Faculty Publications
Background
COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries; possibly because of differing demographics; socioeconomics; surveillance; and policy responses. Here; we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines; a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.
Methods
We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility; testing; and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy; MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon; Central Visayas; and the National Capital …
Impact Of Vaccine Supplies And Delays On Optimal Control Of The Covid-19 Pandemic: Mapping Interventions For The Philippines, Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla, Joshua Uyheng, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Jay Michael R. Macalalag, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar
Impact Of Vaccine Supplies And Delays On Optimal Control Of The Covid-19 Pandemic: Mapping Interventions For The Philippines, Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla, Joshua Uyheng, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Jay Michael R. Macalalag, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar
Mathematics Faculty Publications
Background
Around the world, controlling the COVID-19 pandemic requires national coordination of multiple intervention strategies. As vaccinations are globally introduced into the repertoire of available interventions, it is important to consider how changes in the local supply of vaccines, including delays in administration, may be addressed through existing policy levers. This study aims to identify the optimal level of interventions for COVID-19 from 2021 to 2022 in the Philippines, which as a developing country is particularly vulnerable to shifting assumptions around vaccine availability. Furthermore, we explore optimal strategies in scenarios featuring delays in vaccine administration, expansions of vaccine supply, and …