Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Optimal Scheduling Strategy Of Virtual Power Plant With Carbon Emission And Carbon Penalty Considering Uncertainty Of Wind Power And Photovoltaic Power, Jijun Shui, Daogang Peng, Yankan Song, Qiang Zhou

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To better meet the development needs of China's new power system, an optimal scheduling strategy of virtual power plant(VPP) with carbon emission and carbon penalty considering the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaic power is proposed. The mathematical description of photovoltaic(PV), wind turbine(WT), combined heat and power(CHP) unit and energy storage system (ESS) is carried out, and a wind-solar output model considering the uncertainty is established. The scenario generation and reduction method is used to generate the typical scenario. To maximize the overall operation benefit of VPP, considering carbon emission cost and carbon penalty, an optimal scheduling model of …

Structured Invariant Subspace And Decomposition Of Systems With Time Delays And Uncertainties, Huan Phan-Van, Keqin Gu

SIUE Faculty Research, Scholarship, and Creative Activity

This article discusses invariant subspaces of a matrix with a given partition structure. The existence of a nontrivial structured invariant subspace is equivalent to the possibility of decomposing the associated system with multiple feedback blocks such that the feedback operators are subject to a given constraint. The formulation is especially useful in the stability analysis of time-delay systems using the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach where computational efficiency is essential in order to achieve accuracy for large scale systems. The set of all structured invariant subspaces are obtained (thus all possible decompositions are obtained as a result) for the coupled differential-difference equations …

Multiple Imputation For Robust Cluster Analysis To Address Missingness In Medical Data, Arnold Harder, Gayla R. Olbricht, Godwin Ekuma, Daniel B. Hier, Tayo Obafemi-Ajayi

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Cluster Analysis Has Been Applied To A Wide Range Of Problems As An Exploratory Tool To Enhance Knowledge Discovery. Clustering Aids Disease Subtyping, I.e. Identifying Homogeneous Patient Subgroups, In Medical Data. Missing Data Is A Common Problem In Medical Research And Could Bias Clustering Results If Not Properly Handled. Yet, Multiple Imputation Has Been Under-Utilized To Address Missingness, When Clustering Medical Data. Its Limited Integration In Clustering Of Medical Data, Despite The Known Advantages And Benefits Of Multiple Imputation, Could Be Attributed To Many Factors. This Includes Methodological Complexity, Difficulties In Pooling Results To Obtain A Consensus Clustering, Uncertainty Regarding …

Uncertainties In Retrieval Of Remote Sensing Reflectance From Ocean Color Satellite Observations, Eder I. Herrera Estrella

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Ocean Color radiometry uses remote sensing to interpret ocean dynamics by retrieving remote sensing reflectance (𝑅𝑟𝑠) from satellite imagery at different scales and over different time periods. 𝑅𝑟𝑠 spectrum characterizes the ocean color that we observe, and from which we can discern concentrations of chlorophyll, organic and inorganic particles, and carbon fluxes in the ocean and atmosphere. 𝑅𝑟𝑠 is derived from the total radiance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). However, it only represents up to ten percent of the total signal. Hence, the retrieval of 𝑅𝑟𝑠 from the total radiance at TOA involves the application of atmospheric correction …

Research On Period Emergency Supply Distribution Optimization Under Uncertainty, Li Zhang, Mingling He, Qiushuang Yin, Ning Li, Le'an Yu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Aiming at the uncertainty and multi-periodicity of emergency supply distribution, a novel period vehicle routing problem(PVRP) multi-objective optimization model is built and a three-step optimization method is proposed. A triangular fuzzy number is used to eliminate the uncertainty. An AHP approach is used to transform the multi-objective function into the single objective function. An improved ACO algorithm is proposed to solve the single objective optimization problem. By classical data set, the time effectiveness of proposed method on emergency supply distribution problem is verified. The computational advantage in convergence speed is proved by the comparative analysis of the proposed …

Addressing The Challenged Of Dcop Based Decision-Making Algorithms In Modern Power Systems, Luis Daniel Ramirez Burgueno

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Natural disasters have been determined as the leading cause of power outages, causing not only huge economic losses, but also the interruption of crucial welfare activities and the arise of security concerns. Because of the later, decision-making considering grid modernization, power system economics, and system resiliency has been a crucial theme in power systemsâ?? research. The need to better withstand catastrophic events and reducing the dependency of bulky generating units has propelled the development and better management of behind-the-meter generation or distributed energy resources (DERs). DERs can assist in the grid in different manners, not only by meeting energy demand …

Advances And Applications Of Dsmt For Information Fusion. Collected Works, Volume 5, Florentin Smarandache, Jean Dezert, Albena Tchamova

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This fifth volume on Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics, and is available in open-access. The collected contributions of this volume have either been published or presented after disseminating the fourth volume in 2015 (available at fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book4.pdf or www.onera.fr/sites/default/files/297/2015-DSmT-Book4.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals, or they are new. The contributions of each part of this volume are chronologically ordered.

First Part of this book presents some theoretical advances on DSmT, dealing mainly with modified Proportional Conflict Redistribution Rules (PCR) of …

Uncertainty Simulation Method Based On Deep Bayesian Networks Learning, Nie Kai, Kejun Zeng, Qinghai Meng

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: There are lots of uncertain elements in battlefields situation assessment and the uncertainty simulation would enhance the ability of situation assessment. A deep variational autoencoder bayesian networks (BN) model with memory module is proposed aiming at the problem of being unable to represent the uncertainties exactly caused by the various combat objects and more uncertain elements. Based on the deep BN learning, the situation assessment model is designed from the deep generative model. The principle of deep generative model mixing with the memory module is discussed and the leaning and reasoning process of the model is explained. The proposed …

Sources Of Variability And Uncertainty In Food-Energy-Water Nexus Systems, Heydi Calderon-Ambelis, Deepak R. Keshwani

Biological Systems Engineering: Papers and Publications

A nexus approach contributes to the strategic allocation of resources to secure food, energy, and water for the world population. Integrated models considering the complex interactions across food, energy, and water (FEW) enhance decision-making and strategic planning towards resilience. However, a significant number of the existing integrated models leave unaddressed the inherent variability and uncertainty present in the FEW sectors. Here, we review the importance of characterizing variability over spatial and temporal scales and the importance of decreasing the uncertainty present within a FEW nexus systems. The review also discusses existing modeling tools that address variability and uncertainty on single …

Jointly-Learnt Networks For Future Action Anticipation Via Self-Knowledge Distillation And Cycle Consistency, Md Moniruzzaman, Zhaozheng Yin, Zhihai He, Ming-Chuan Leu, Ruwen Qin

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Future action anticipation aims to infer future actions from the observation of a small set of past video frames. In this paper, we propose a novel Jointly learnt Action Anticipation Network (J-AAN) via Self-Knowledge Distillation (Self-KD) and cycle consistency for future action anticipation. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art methods which anticipate the future actions either directly or recursively, our proposed J-AAN anticipates the future actions jointly in both direct and recursive ways. However, when dealing with future action anticipation, one important challenge to address is the future's uncertainty since multiple action sequences may come from or be followed by …

Reduced-Order Dynamic Modeling And Robust Nonlinear Control Of Fluid Flow Velocity Fields, Anu Kossery Jayaprakash, William Mackunis, Vladimir Golubev, Oksana Stalnov

Publications

A robust nonlinear control method is developed for fluid flow velocity tracking, which formally addresses the inherent challenges in practical implementation of closed-loop active flow control systems. A key challenge being addressed here is flow control design to compensate for model parameter variations that can arise from actuator perturbations. The control design is based on a detailed reduced-order model of the actuated flow dynamics, which is rigorously derived to incorporate the inherent time-varying uncertainty in the both the model parameters and the actuator dynamics. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first robust nonlinear closed-loop active flow …

Active Learning Intelligent Soft Sensor Based On Probability Selection, Xuezhi Dai, Weili Xiong

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Aiming at lack of tag samples and high cost of sampling tags in complex industrial processes, an active learning algorithm based on probability selection is proposed. Firstly, unlabeled samples are performed subspace integration by using the principal component analysis. Then, the information of unlabeled samples is evaluated by the uncertainty, which is calculated based on the out put of all sub learners. And the most valuable samples are selected to mark manually. Finally, the function of unlabeled samples and labeled samples are analyzed, and the termination conditions are designed by introducing the performance index of training set. Through simulations …

Computational Modeling For Decision-Making Under Climate Change Uncertainty: Reservoir Simulation Game, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

Almost every decision you make is under uncertainty. Will I need a rain jacket in the afternoon? Will they say yes if I ask them out? Is 1 hour enough time to finish this assignment? Oftentimes, we can use computational modeling to simulate different scenarios of what might happen in the future to inform what decisions are best on average, or what decisions minimize the worst case outcome. For example, you could decide what player to draft for your Fantasy Football team by simulating player performance. In this activity, we will simulate how much water to release from a dam …

A New Method For Optimal Expansion Planning In Electrical Energy Distributionnetworks With Distributed Generation Resources Considering Uncertainties, Amir Masoud Mohaghegh, S Yaser Derakhshandeh, Abbas Kargar

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The present study aims to introduce a robust model for distribution network expansion planning considering system uncertainties. The proposed method determines optimal size and placement of distributed generation resources, as well as installation and reinforcement of feeders and substations. This model is designed to minimize cost and to determine the best time for the installation of equipment in the expansion planning. In the proposed expansion planning, the fuzzy logic theory is employed to model uncertainties of loads and energy price. Also, since the proposed model is a nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problem, a tri-stage algorithm is developed to solve it. …

Optimal Planning Dg And Bes Units In Distribution System Consideringuncertainty Of Power Generation And Time-Varying Load, Mansur Khasanov, Salah Kamel, Ayman Awad, Francisco Jurado

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Global environmental problems associated with traditional energy generation have led to a rapid increasein the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in power systems. The integration of renewable energy technologiesis commercially available nowadays, and the most common of such RES technology is photovoltaic (PV). This paperproposes an application of hybrid teaching-learning and artificial bee colony (TLABC) technique for determining theoptimal allocation of PV based distributed generation (DG) and battery energy storage (BES) units in the distributionsystem (DS) with the aim of minimizing the total power losses. Besides, some potential nodes identified by the powerloss sensitivity factor (PLSF). Thereupon TLABC is …

Communicating Uncertain Information From Deep Learning Models In Human Machine Teams, Harishankar V. Subramanian, Casey I. Canfield, Daniel Burton Shank, Luke Andrews, Cihan H. Dagli

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

The role of human-machine teams in society is increasing, as big data and computing power explode. One popular approach to AI is deep learning, which is useful for classification, feature identification, and predictive modeling. However, deep learning models often suffer from inadequate transparency and poor explainability. One aspect of human systems integration is the design of interfaces that support human decision-making. AI models have multiple types of uncertainty embedded, which may be difficult for users to understand. Humans that use these tools need to understand how much they should trust the AI. This study evaluates one simple approach for communicating …

Color Face Image Recognition Based On Lbpt Method, Jihua Ye, Yahui Chen, Shimin Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Aiming to the shortcomings of exiting algorithm to obtain better color face image information for color facial image recognition, the LBPT algorithm was proposed to realize the high efficiency recognition of color face image. LBPT algorithm reflected the texture features of gray image through adaptively obtaining neighborhood radius, ascertaining the relationship between neighborhood radius and neighborhood pixel number, setting threshold. The RGB color model was used to separate the color face image into the R,G,B three component diagrams. The LBPT algorithm was used to obtain the feature of the component diagrams. In order to realize further recognition, the method …

Rotorcraft Blade Angle Calibration Methods, Brian David Calvert Jr.

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The most vital system of a rotorcraft is the rotor system due to its effects on the overall flight quality of the vehicle. Therefore, it is of importance to be able to accurately determine blade position during flight so that fine adjustments can be made to ensure a safe and efficient flight. In this study, a current calibration method focusing on the pitch, flap, and lead-lag blade angles is analyzed and found to have larger than acceptable error associated with the sensor calibrations. A literature review is conducted which reveals four novel methods that can potentially increase the accuracy of …

Gcps Adaptive Scheduling Model Based On Cooperative Executor, Zhang Jing, Chen Yao, Sun Jun, Hongbo Fan

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the uncertainty of grid cyber physical systems leads to chain failure, an adaptive GCPS dispatching model based on co-actuator is established. First, the constraint conditions of the system are analyzed. A model constraints of GCPS system is presented to describe the constraint conditions of the power system, and it is proved that it meets the consistency of the measure and representing methods. Second, the optimal value of approximation error is solved by PILOT, and the framework of CA-SADM is described. Finally, the performance index, output power accuracy and the influence of fault on the …

Method Of Power System Energy Storage Configuration Based On Flexibility Promotion, Weiqing Sun, Li Zhen, Yiming Tan, Fenglei Lü, Wenping Qiu, Hongzhong Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To solve the problem of renewable energy access and aiming at system’s response capability to short-term uncertainty, power system flexibility and its evaluation index are defined. A method of energy storage configuration based on flexibility evaluation is proposed. The uncertainty from power supply is analyzed. Aiming at the uncertainty of renewable energy, a source flexibility evaluation index is defined. The principle and method of energy storage configuration are presented from the aspect of siting and sizing. The energy storage configuration model is created and solved considering both the system flexibility requirements and energy storage costs based on the …

Transmission Expansion Planning Based On A Hybrid Genetic Algorithm Approachunder Uncertainty, Ercan Şenyi̇ği̇t, Selçuk Mutlu, Bi̇lal Babayi̇ği̇t

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is one of the key decisions in power systems. Its impact on the system?s operation is excessive and long-lived. The aim of TEP is to determine new transmission lines effectively for a current transmission grid to fulfill the model objectives. However, to obtain a solution, especially under uncertainty, is extremely difficult due to the nonlinear mixed-integer structure of the TEP problem. In this paper, first genetic algorithm (GA) approaches for TEP are reviewed in the literature and then a new hybrid GA with linear modeling is proposed. The proposed GA method has a flexible structure and …

Decision Making For Dynamic Systems Under Uncertainty: Predictions And Parameter Recomputations, Leobardo Valera

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this Thesis, we are interested in making decision over a model of a dynamic system. We want to know, on one hand, how the corresponding dynamic phenomenon unfolds under different input parameters (simulations). These simulations might help researchers to design devices with a better performance than the actual ones. On the other hand, we are also interested in predicting the behavior of the dynamic system based on knowledge of the phenomenon in order to prevent undesired outcomes. Finally, this Thesis is concerned with the identification of parameters of dynamic systems that ensure a specific performance or behavior.

Understanding the …

Advanced Probabilistic Power Flow Methodology For Power Systems With Renewable Resources, Dinh Duong Le, Nhi Thi Ai Nguyen, Van Duong Ngo, Alberto Berizzi

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Renewable~resources have added additional uncertainty to power grids. Deterministic power flow does not provide sufficient information for power system calculation and analysis, since all sources of uncertainty are not taken into account. To handle uncertainties PPF has been introduced and used as an efficient tool. In this paper, we present a cumulant-based PPF approach that can account for various sources of uncertainty in power systems with renewable resources such as wind and photovoltaic energy. We also propose the use of a new methodology to estimate probability distribution for wind power output based on measured data. The proposed approach is carried …

Periodic Control For The Cart Pendulum System With Structured Uncertainty, Arindam Chakraborty, Jayati Dey

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

The robust stabilization of the cart pendulum system was studied under structured uncertainty with a continuous-time periodic controller. The cart pendulum system was considered here as the test set-up as it is a well-known example of an unstable nonminimum phase system. The uncertainty in the system rose due to measurement error or dry friction in it. In this paper, the robust stability of the periodic controller in the presence of uncertainty was examined. The gain margin and delay margin endow with the periodic controller were superior to those obtained in the case of linear time invariant (LTI) control even in …

Design Optimization Of A Stochastic Multi-Objective Problem: Gaussian Process Regressions For Objective Surrogates, Juan Sebastian Martinez, Piyush Pandita, Rohit K. Tripathy, Ilias Bilionis

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) problems arise frequently in science and engineering situations. In an optimization problem, we want to find the set of input parameters that generate the set of optimal outputs, mathematically known as the Pareto frontier (PF). Solving the MOO problem is a challenge since expensive experiments can be performed only a constrained number of times and there is a limited set of data to work with, e.g. a roll-to-roll microwave plasma chemical vapor deposition (MPCVD) reactor for manufacturing high quality graphene. State-of-the-art techniques, e.g. evolutionary algorithms; particle swarm optimization, require a large amount of observations and do not …

The Role Of Uncertainty In Categorical Perception Utilizing Statistical Learning In Robots, Nathaniel V. Powell

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

At the heart of statistical learning lies the concept of uncertainty.

Similarly, embodied agents such as robots

and animals must likewise address uncertainty, as sensation

is always only a partial reflection of reality. This

thesis addresses the role that uncertainty can play in

a central building block of intelligence: categorization.

Cognitive agents are able to perform tasks like categorical perception

through physical interaction (active categorical perception; ACP),

or passively at a distance (distal categorical perception; DCP).

It is possible that the former scaffolds the learning of

the latter. However, it is unclear whether DCP indeed scaffolds

ACP in humans and …

Combining Interval And Probabilistic Uncertainty In Engineering Applications, Andrew Martin Pownuk

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In many practical application, we process measurement results and expert estimates. Measurements and expert estimates are never absolutely accurate, their result are slightly different from the actual (unknown) values of the corresponding quantities. It is therefore desirable to analyze how this measurement and estimation inaccuracy affects the results of data processing. There exist numerous methods for estimating the accuracy of the results of data processing under different models of measurement and estimation inaccuracies: probabilistic, interval, and fuzzy. To be useful in engineering applications, these methods should provide accurate estimate for the resulting uncertainty, should not take too much computation time, …

An Interval-Based Contingency Selection Approach Considering Uncertainty, Chao Xu, Wei Gu, Lizi Luo, Jianguo Yao, Shengchun Yang, Ke Wang, Dan Zeng, Miao Fan

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Static security assessment is affected by uncertainties of load flow distributions introduced by renewable sources. A fast contingency selection approach based on interval theory is proposed in this paper. Firstly, an interval line active flow calculation algorithm is developed to reduce conservation in application of interval mathematics in line flow calculation. Then a novel interval comparison method based on Bayesian probability theory is applied in interval index comparison to give the relative severity information of contingencies. Finally, an approximately consistent ranking method is utilized in contingency ranking to rank screened contingencies. Numerical studies on several IEEE standard test systems and …

Managing Risks Of Market Price Uncertainty For A Microgrid Operation, Sriram Raghavan

Masters Theses

"After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …