Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Critical Factors And Individual Decision Making In Earthquake And Tsunami Preparedness Among Coastal Communities Inoregon U.S.A., Shelley Olds

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Earthquakes and tsunamis are natural hazards that cause considerable loss of life, destruction of property and infrastructure, and economic damage. Preparedness is critical in regions of significant earthquake and tsunami risk. A key challenge for organizations that manage hazard preparedness and response is mobilizing earthquake preparedness among individuals and families. This dissertation provides an examination of individual earthquake and tsunami preparedness from both a global and regional perspective. It comprises two publications that explore various aspects of disaster preparedness.

Chapter One provides an overview of global seismic and tsunami hazards, along with potential impacts, and addresses the challenges in promoting …

Simulation On Flood Disaster In Urban Building Complex System Based On Lbm, Shen Zhang, Zewang Yang, Yifan Wang, Liang Sun, Ming Cheng, Fankai Meng, Ting Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Because of the extreme climate change, the potential flood disaster risk in the southeast coastal areas of China can not be ignored. Based on lattice Boltzmann computational fluid dynamics method, a three-dimensional simulation study of waterlogging process in tsunami impact scenario is carried out for a coastal city building complex system, and the reliability and accuracy of the numerical simulation method for the flood impact test of an ideal building complex are verified. The results show that the buildings along rivers and coastlines have obvious cloaking effect, while the buildings inside the city are less affected by floods. The …

Primary Versus Secondary Gravity Wave Responses At F-Region Heights Generated By A Convective Source, C. J. Heale, P. A. Inchin, J. B. Snively

Publications

A 2D nonlinear, compressible model is used to simulate the acoustic-gravity wave (AGW, i.e., encompassing the spectrum of acoustic and gravity waves) response to a thunderstorm squall-line type source. We investigate the primary and secondary neutral AGW response in the thermosphere, consistent with waves that can couple to the F-region ionospheric plasma, and manifest as Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). We find that primary waves at z = 240 km altitude have wavelengths and phase speeds in the range 170–270 km, and 180–320 m/s, respectively. The secondary waves generated have wavelengths ranging from ∼100 to 600 km, and phase speeds from …

Field Investigations And Numerical Modeling Of Earthquake And Tsunami Risk At Four Vulnerable Sites In Indonesia, Claire E. Ashcraft

Theses and Dissertations

Maps and models of seismic and tsunami risk are constructed from a variety of measurements taken in Indonesia, which have the potential to reduce loss of life and infrastructure. The first study uses the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method to calculate the time-averaged shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30). These measurements were taken at 58 sites in the city of Pacitan, Java and on the islands of Lombok, Ambon, and the Banda Islands. Vs30 calculations are compared with local geologic maps to extrapolate site class for locations not measured directly. Site class maps are then compared …

Exploring Improvements To The Convergence Of Reconstructing Historical Destructive Earthquakes, Kameron Lightheart

Theses and Dissertations

Determining risk to human populations due to natural disasters has been a topic of interest in the STEM fields for centuries. Earthquakes and the tsunamis they cause are of particular interest due to their repetition cycles. These cycles can last hundreds of years but we have only had modern measuring instruments for the last century or so which makes analysis difficult. In this document, we explore ways to improve upon an existing method for reconstructing earthquakes from historical accounts of tsunamis. This method was designed and implemented by Jared P Whitehead's research group over the last 5 years. The issue …

Advances In Assessing Flood Hazard And Sediment Dynamics At The Coast, Hannah Baranes

Doctoral Dissertations

Earth’s coastlines are shaped by geophysical and human dynamism. Waves, tides, currents, and sea level change reconfigure coastal environments on hourly to centennial timescales, and the coast is experiencing the fastest economic and population growth rates in the world. This coexistence of a dynamic environment and human development makes coastal communities uniquely vulnerable to natural hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate flooding and erosion hazards in the future; thus, it is critical that we understand the underlying physical drivers of coastal change. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to improve the mechanistic understanding and quantification of dynamic processes …

Tsunami Hazard, Warning, And Risk Reduction In Italy And The Mediterranean Sea: State Of The Art, Gaps, And Future Solutions, Stefano Lorito, Alessandro Amato, Lorenzo Cugliari, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Tonini, Cecilia Valbonesi, Manuela Volpe

Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences

Historical catalogues show evidence for about 300 tsunamis in European coastal waters since 1600 BC, and tsunami hazard models like the NEAMTHM18 provide the probability of future inundation from earthquake-induced tsunamis. A recent wake-up call came from the 2020 Mw7.0 Samos-İzmir earthquake and the following moderate, damaging tsunami. Five accredited Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) run by IPMA (Portugal), CENALT (France), INGV (Italy), NOA (Greece), and KOERI (Turkey), and several national centers monitor the seismicity and provide tsunami alerts in the framework of the UNESCO Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS). …

Sediment Provenance Of Tsunami Deposits: Implications For Assessing The Relative Intensity Of Paleotsunamis From The Sendai Coastline Of Japan, Tiffany Otai

Master's Theses

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami impacted the northeastern coast of Japan and caused unexpected damages due to the underestimation of this type of hazard. Of particular importance is the fact that geologic evidence for a predecessor event, the Jogan tsunami (CE 869), could have forecasted the severity of the 2011 Tohoku event. While the timing of tsunamis is important for effective hazard mitigation, outside of the 2011 Tohoku event, the intensity of past tsunamis remains unclear. To understand paleotsunami intensity, it is important to document characteristics of modern analogues like the 2011 event. This study utilizes surface distributions of foraminifera from …

The Dynamics Of Nonlinear Atmospheric Acoustic-Gravity Waves Generated By Tsunamis Over Realistic Bathymetry, P. A. Inchin, C. J. Heale, J. B. Snively, M. D. Zettergren

Publications

The investigation of atmospheric tsunamigenic acoustic and gravity wave (TAGW) dynamics, from the ocean surface to the thermosphere, is performed through the numerical computations of the 3D compressible nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. Tsunami propagation is first simulated using a nonlinear shallow water model, which incorporates instantaneous or temporal evolutions of initial tsunami distributions (ITD). Ocean surface dynamics are then imposed as a boundary condition to excite TAGWs into the atmosphere from the ground level. We perform a case study of a large tsunami associated with the 2011 M9.1 Tohuku-Oki earthquake and parametric studies with simplified and demonstrative bathymetry and ITD. Our …

Visual Tsunami Simulation And Disaster Risk Assessment, Xie Cui, Jinjin Xun, Xiaowei Zhou, Junyu Dong

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Based on the effectively modeling and visual simulation of the potential tsunami event in the South China Sea, the tsunami generation, propagation, runup and inundation could be visually simulated with multiple scenarios. The inundation probability, the flood inundation area and degree were computed. The location and function of buildings/critical facilities in the study area were extracted and classified by GIS analysis and image processing technology. Then the population distribution was effectively modeled and the vulnerability of people response was estimated for risk assessment combining with the geographical information and the historical disasters record. This improved method considered the inundation …

Toward Near‐Field Tsunami Forecasting Along The Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid Gnss Source Models, Amy L. Williamson, Diego Melgar, Brendan W. Crowell, Diego Argas, Timothy I. Melbourne, Yong Wei, Kevin Kwong

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Over the past 15 years and through multiple large and devastating earthquakes, tsunami warning systems have grown considerably in their efficacy in providing timely and accurate forecasts to affected communities. However, one part of tsunami warning that still needs improvement is forecasts catered to local, near‐field communities in the time after an earthquake rupture but before coastal inundation. In this study, we test a rapid, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)‐driven earthquake characterization model using a large data set of synthetic megathrust ruptures for its near‐field tsunami forecasting potential. We also provide a framework for tsunami forecasting that focuses on the …

Mesopause Airglow Disturbances Driven By Nonlinear Infrasonic Acoustic Waves Generated By Large Earthquakes, P. A. Inchin, J. B. Snively, J. Aguilar Guerrero, M. D. Zettergren, A. Williamson, D. Melgar

Publications

Near-epicentral mesopause airglow perturbations, driven by infrasonic acoustic waves (AWs) during a nighttime analog of the 2011 M9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, are simulated through the direct numerical computation of the 3D nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. Surface dynamics from a forward seismic wave propagation simulation, initialized with a kinematic slip model and performed with the SPECFEM3D_GLOBE model, are used to excite AWs into the atmosphere from ground level. Simulated mesopause airglow perturbations include steep oscillations and persistent nonlinear depletions up to 50% and 70% from the background state, respectively, for the hydroxyl OH(3,1) and oxygen O(1S) 557.7-nm emissions. Results suggest that …

Mapping And Modeling The Seattle Fault Tsunami Inundation In Puget Sound, David Bruce

All Master's Theses

Coastal communities of Puget Sound are susceptible to tsunami inundation from multiple sources. Two sources of potential tsunami hazard that threaten the region are earthquakes on crustal faults in the Puget Lowlands, or earthquakes originating on the Cascadia subduction zone. This study investigated two coastal marshes in Puget Sound, Deer Lagoon and Doe-Kag-Wats, for evidence of a paleotsunami record to combine with tsunami modeling, in order to predict how future events could inundate Puget Sound. A deposit, interpreted as a paleotsunami, is traceable thought the marsh stratigraphy near the modern day tidal inlet of Deer Lagoon, a site that has …

Tsunamigenic Potential Of The Baiyun Slide Complex In The South China Sea, Linlin Li, Fengyan Shi, Gangfeng Ma, Qiang Qiu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

The Baiyun slide complex contains geological evidence for some of the largest landslide ever discovered in the continental slopes of the South China Sea. High-resolution seismic data suggest that a variety of landslides with varied scales have occurred repeatedly in this area. The largest landslide reconstructed from bathymetric and seismic data has an estimated spatial coverage of ~5,500 km² and a conservative volume of ~1,035 km³. Here, using geomorphological and geotechnical data, we construct a series of probable landslide scenarios and assess their tsunamigenic capacity. By treating the slides as deformable mudflows, we simulate the dynamics of …

Defining Historical Earthquake Rupture Parameters And Proposed Slip Distributions Through Tsunami Modeling In South-Central Chile, Alexander Dolcimascolo

All Master's Theses

Reliable tsunami early warning forecasts rely on accurate initial modeling conditions and interpretations of subduction zone behavior in a multi-century perspective. GPS and seismologic data were introduced this past century to study rupture dynamics in detail, however limited information is known about ruptures that pre-date the 20^th century. I propose a methodology that uses statistics to better understand these pre-20^th century ruptures. This methodology applies the historical and geologic tsunami record as a means to select a suite of tsunami simulations from earthquake source solutions. I chose south-central Chile (46°S to 30°S) to test this new methodology; it …

Validation Of Predicted Tsunami Inundation For The Inland Coast Of The Salish Sea Associated With Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes, Paige Morkner

WWU Graduate School Collection

The Cascadia subduction zone is understood to produce large, Mw 9.0, earthquakes every 300-1000 years. As a result of large ruptures along the fault, Washington, Oregon and Northern California, are susceptible large tsunamis along the coast. Hazard modeling and mapping along the Cascadia subduction zone has concluded that large tsunamis are able to travel through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and inundate coastal regions of the Salish Sea and Puget Sound. However, to improve modeling efforts, field validation of models is required. Tsunamis can move material from the near shore and beach and deposit in low-laying coastal marshes and …

Discovery Of Possible Paleotsunami Deposits In Pangandaran And Adipala, Java, Indonesia Using Grain Size, Xrd, And 14C Analyses, Kevin L. Stuart

Theses and Dissertations

Grain size, ¹⁴C age, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of sediments indicate possible tsunami deposits on the southern coast of Java near Pangandaran and Adipala. Previous studies that have described known recent and paleotsunami deposits were used for comparison. Fining-upward grain size trends, interbedded sand and mud, sediment composition, and trends in heavy mineral abundances are among the characteristics used for tsunami deposit identification. At Batu Kalde, an archaeological site south of Pangandaran, a layer of aragonitic sand with marine fossils was found atop a layer of archaeological fragments at an elevation of ~2-5 m. It is likely this …

The Performance Of 2d And 3d Tsunami Evacuation Maps: A Case Study For Seaside, Oregon, Aaron M. Taveras

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

Tsunami evacuation maps are intended to inform the public about the geographic extent of the hazard and where to evacuate, but these maps can be difficult to interpret for people unfamiliar with cartographic semiology. This study focuses on the performance of tsunami evacuation maps and how the tsunami hazard is represented cartographically, as at-risk communities must be able to act quickly, and effectively understand tsunami maps to remain aware of the hazard and adequately evacuate. This study investigated the use of static three-dimensional (3D) perspective maps and travel time to safety representation (shown using point markers and choropleth symbology), as …

Ionospheric Gravity Waves Driven By Oceanic Gravity Waves In Resonance: A Modeling Study In Search Of Their Spectra, Michael P. Hickey, Yonghui Yu

Publications

Ionospheric observations associated with the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have revealed gravity waves having spectral characteristics that depend on their proximity to the epicenter. There is a preponderance of medium-scale waves in the vicinity of the epicenter, a significant bifurcation into short- and long-period waves over the Hawaiian archipelago, and a narrow and rich spectrum of waves over the West Coast and inland of the United States (U.S.). Guided by these previous observations, we consider wave sources as triads of nonlinearly interacting oceanic gravity waves, whose wave parameters satisfy resonant conditions. These waves are simulated using a 2-D nonlinear model describing …

Catastrophic Landscape Modification From Massive Landslide Tsunamis: An Example From Taan Fiord, Alaska, Colin Bloom

All Master's Theses

The October 17^th 2015 Taan landslide and tsunami generated a high runup of 192 m, nearly an order of magnitude greater than most previously surveyed tsunamis. Extensive modifications observed and documented on several low gradient fan deltas within the fiord make Taan Fiord an excellent laboratory for characterizing geomorphic signatures of a high runup tsunami event. Although interest in this topic is high, most prior post-tsunami surveys are from earthquake-generated tsunamis with relatively low runup, thus the geomorphic signatures of high runup tsunamis or their potential for preservation are uncharacterized. Additionally, clear modifications described during post-tsunami surveys are typically …

Ionospheric Signatures Of Gravity Waves Produced By The 2004 Sumatra And 2011 Tohoku Tsunamis: A Modeling Study, Michael P. Hickey, Yonghui Yu, Wenqing Wang

Publications

Ionospheric fluctuations inferred from observations of total electron content have previously been attributed to tsunamis and have confirmed the strong coupling between Earth’s ocean and ionosphere via atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs). To further advance our understanding of this wave coupling process we employ a linear full-wave model and a nonlinear time-dependent model to examine the ionospheric response to the AGW perturbations induced by the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. In the 2004 case, our modeling analyses reveal that one component of the propagating AGWs becomes dynamically unstable in the E-region ionosphere at a range exceeding 2000 km in …

2015 Gsa International Distinguished Lecturer Tours Key Locations In Central And South America, Lisa L. Ely

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

As the International Lecturer from North America, I visited 11 destinations in Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. The tour was designed to include locations where the topic of my presentation, “Following in the Footsteps of Darwin:
Combining Geological and Historical Evidence to Assess Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards,” would have direct relevance.

The Depth Effect Of Earthquakes On Tsunami Heights In The Sea Of Okhotsk, Andrey Zaytsev, Irina Kostenko, Andrey Kurkin, Efim Pelinovsky, Ahmet Cevdet Yalçiner

Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences

The earthquake of magnitude Mw = 8.3 that occurred on 24 May 2013 in the Sea of Okhotsk was the most powerful earthquake in the region. Fortunately, the generated tsunami was small because of the deep focal depth (609 km) and was only detected by the nearest Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy records. However, the event highlighted the fact that any earthquakes with similar magnitudes at shallower focal depths would have caused considerable tsunamis. In order to evaluate the effects of possible tsunamis in the Sea of Okhotsk, we simulated water displacements due to the 24 May …

Propagation Of Tsunami-Driven Gravity Waves Into The Thermosphere And Ionosphere, Michael P. Hickey, G. Schubert, R. L. Walterscheid

Michael P. Hickey

Recent observations have revealed large F-region electron density perturbations (~100%) and total electron content (TEC) perturbations (~30%) that appear to be correlated with tsunamis. The characteristic speed and horizontal wavelength of the disturbances are ~200 m/s and ~400 km. We describe numerical simulations using our spectral full-wave model (SFWM) of the upward propagation of a spectrum of gravity waves forced by a tsunami, and the interaction of these waves with the F-region ionosphere. The SFWM describes the propagation of linear, steady-state acoustic-gravity waves in a nonisothermal atmosphere with the inclusion of eddy and molecular diffusion of heat and momentum, ion …

Propagation Of Tsunami-Driven Gravity Waves Into The Thermosphere And Ionosphere, Michael P. Hickey, G. Schubert, R. L. Walterscheid

Michael P. Hickey

Recent observations have revealed large F-region electron density perturbations (~100%) and total electron content (TEC) perturbations (~30%) that appear to be correlated with tsunamis. The characteristic speed and horizontal wavelength of the disturbances are ~200 m/s and ~400 km. We describe numerical simulations using our spectral full-wave model (SFWM) of the upward propagation of a spectrum of gravity waves forced by a tsunami, and the interaction of these waves with the F-region ionosphere. The SFWM describes the propagation of linear, steady-state acoustic-gravity waves in a nonisothermal atmosphere with the inclusion of eddy and molecular diffusion of heat and momentum, ion …

Atmospheric Airglow Fluctuations Due To A Tsunami‐Driven Gravity Wave Disturbance, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D., G. Schubert, R. L. Walterscheid

Michael P. Hickey

A spectral full‐wave model is used to study the upward propagation of a gravity wave disturbance and its effect on atmospheric nightglow emissions. Gravity waves are generated by a surface displacement that mimics a tsunami having a maximum amplitude of 0.5 m, a characteristic horizontal wavelength of 400 km, and a horizontal phase speed of 200 m/s. The gravity wave disturbance can reach F region altitudes before significant viscous dissipation occurs. The response of the OH Meinel nightglow in the mesopause region (∼87 km altitude) produces relative brightness fluctuations, which are ∼1% of the mean for overhead viewing. The wave …

The 2009 Samoa And 2010 Chile Tsunamis As Observed In The Ionosphere Using Gps Total Electron Content, David A. Galvan, Attila Komjathy, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D., Anthony J. Mannucci

Michael P. Hickey

Ground‐based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the Samoa earthquake of 29 September 2009 and the Chile earthquake of 27 February 2010. Both earthquakes produced ocean tsunamis that were destructive to coastal communities near the epicenters, and both were observed in tidal gauge and buoy measurements throughout the Pacific Ocean. We observe fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Global Ionospheric Mapping software. These TEC measurements were …

Using The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model To Forcast Probable Impacts, And Planning Implications, Of A 500-Year Tsunami In Cayucos, California, Andrew Robert Marshall

Master's Theses

This report focuses on using the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model (PTVA) to demonstrate the vulnerability of Cayucos to a 500-year tsunami, and using the results to inform specific planning recommendations. By modeling inundation with GIS and analyzing building attributes via the PTVA model, this study has gone beyond any previous vulnerability assessments of Cayucos. Findings include: delineation of the most vulnerable areas, estimates of numbers of lost civic buildings, commercial buildings and houses, as well as estimates of people displaced from tsunami damaged homes. The report goes on to discuss what mitigation measures are in place and what further …

Will Oscillating Wave Surge Converters Survive Tsunamis?, Laura Cooke, P. Christodoulides, E. Renzi, T. Stefanakis, F. Dias

Articles

With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC) could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, …

Geology In Environmental Management, Michael A. Kruge

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

From the geological perspective, the two overriding environmental management concerns are the destructive impact of hazardous natural events on human health and property and the deleterious impact of human activity on the natural environment. The knowledge derived from the geological sciences serves as the basis for a more enlightened approach to the reduction of unnecessary risk involved in the siting and construction of buildings and transportation networks, as well as the extraction of natural resources and waste management. Armed with such knowledge along with political sensitivity, environmental managers will have opportunities for positive social impact in negotiating the challenges as …