Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Last Millennium Hurricane Activity Linked To Endogenous Climate Variability, Wenchang Yang, Elizabeth Wallace, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Larry W. Horowitz, Richard M. Sullivan, Robert Tardif, Peter J. Van Hengstum, Tyler S. Winkler

OES Faculty Publications

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest …

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling And Paleohurricane Records To Assess Storm Surge Risk, Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Christine Y. Blackshaw, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori, Elizabeth Wallace, Kerry Emanuel, Jeffrey P. Donnelly

OES Faculty Publications

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological-hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling …

Historical And Potential Future Climate Of Extreme Daily Precipitation Over The Contiguous United States Using Convection-Permitting Simulations, Sylvia Stinnett

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The impacts of anthropogenic climate change will be felt most strongly through changes in hazards such as extreme precipitation. The potential for extreme precipitation changes—both increases and decreases—may have significant societal impacts (e.g., agriculture production, loss of life and property). However, limited research has quantified future projected changes in extreme precipitation due to computational limitations and considerable time expenditure for convection-permitting simulations of substantial duration.This project sought to analyze changes in extreme daily precipitation—defined as the 99th percentile daily accumulated value—due to climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS) using a dynamically downscaled and convection-permitting regional climate modeling framework. …

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr⁻¹ since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …

Downscaling Of Physical Risks For Climate Scenario Design, Enrico Biffis, Shuai Wang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Southeast Asia is arguably one of the areas most vulnerable to natural disasters due to its dense population, coastal urbanization, and rainfall variability driven by the local monsoon systems. In this report, we focus on the impact of global warming in the region along four climate dimensions: temperature, precipitation, wind speed and coastal surge. The latter represents the surge of water from the ocean in excess of astronomical tides. Our objective is to downscale the outputs of global climate models to temporal and spatial resolutions of interest to market participants wishing to quantify climate risk vulnerability via climate stress testing …

Revisiting The Use Of Red And Near-Infrared Reflectances In Vegetation Studies And Numerical Climate Models, Garik Gutman, Sergii Skakun, Anatoly Gitelson

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Surface reflectance data acquired in red and near-infrared spectra by remote sensing sensors are traditionally applied to construct various vegetation indices (VIs), which are related to vegetation biophysical parameters. Most VIs use pre-defined weights (usually equal to 1) for the red and NIR reflectance values, therefore constraining particular weights for red and NIR during the VI design phase, and potentially limiting capabilities of the VI to explain an independent variable. In this paper, we propose an approach to estimate biophysical variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI), Canopy Chlorophyll Content (CCC) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) absorbed by …

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application To Chesapeake And Delaware Bays, Sergio R. Signorini, Antonio Mannino, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, John Wilkin, Aboozar Tabatabai, Raymond G. Najjar, Eileen E. Hofmann, Fei Da, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao

CCPO Publications

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by …

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

The Role Of Sulfur Dioxide In Stratospheric Aerosol Formation Evaluated By Using In Situ Measurements In The Tropical Lower Stratosphere, A. W. Rollins, T. D. Thornberry, L. A. Watts, P. Yu, K. H. Rosenlof, M. Mills, E. Baumann, F. R. Giorgetta, T. V. Bui, M. Höpfner, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Stratospheric aerosols (SAs) are a variable component of the Earth's albedo that may be intentionally enhanced in the future to offset greenhouse gases (geoengineering). The role of tropospheric-sourced sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in maintaining background SAs has been debated for decades without in situ measurements of SO₂ at the tropical tropopause to inform this issue. Here we clarify the role of SO₂ in maintaining SAs by using new in situ SO₂ measurements to evaluate climate models and satellite retrievals. We then use the observed tropical tropopause SO₂ mixing ratios to estimate the global flux of …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rochelle Cavanaugh, Ej Murphy, Et Al, Walker O. Smith Jr., Et Al

VIMS Articles

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

Is The Detection Of Accelerated Sea Level Rise Imminent?, J. T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem, B. Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking …

Modeling Ice Shelf/Ocean Interaction In Antarctica: A Review, Michael S. Dinniman, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Ralph Timmerman

CCPO Publications

The most rapid loss of ice from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is observed where ice streams flow into the ocean and begin to float, forming the great Antarctic ice shelves that surround much of the continent. Because these ice shelves are floating, their thinning does not greatly influence sea level. However, they also buttress the ice streams draining the ice sheet, and so ice shelf changes do significantly influence sea level by altering the discharge of grounded ice. Currently, the most significant loss of mass from the ice shelves is from melting at the base (although iceberg calving is a …

Development And Evaluation Of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over The Mountainous Northeastern United States, Jonathan M. Winter, Brian Beckage, Gabriela Bucini, Radley M. Horton, Patrick J. Clemins

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly ~1/8°) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional …

Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas

CCPO Publications

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained …

Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson

Publications

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment Of Uncertainty In Cmip5 Projections Related To Stratosphere-Troposhere Coupling, E. Manzini, A. Yu. Karpechko, J. Anstey, M. P. Baldwin, R. X. Black, C. Cagnazzo, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, B. Christiansen, Paolo Davini, E. Gerber, M. Giorgettta, L. Gray, S. C. Hardiman, Y. Y. Lee, D. R. Marsh, Brent A. Mcdaniel, A. Purich, A. A. Scaife, D. Shindell, S. W. Son, S. Watanabe, G. Zappa

Faculty and Research Publications

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in …

Impacts Of Projected Climate Change Over The Lake Champlain Basin In Vermont, Justin Guilbert, Brian Beckage, Jonathan M. Winter, Radley M. Horton, Timothy Perkins, Arne Bomblies

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above …

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Slides: Future Water Availability In The West: Will There Be Enough?, Michael Dettinger

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Michael Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

30 slides

"with contributions from Julio Betancourt, Dan Cayan, & others"

Hydrocarbons In The Upper Troposphere And Lower Stratosphere Observed From Ace-Fts And Comparisons With Waccm, Mijeong Park, William J. Randel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Louisa K. Emmons, Peter F. Bernath, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Nathaniel J. Livesey

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Satellite measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are used to examine the global, seasonal variations of several hydrocarbons, including carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C₂H₆), acetylene (C₂H₂), and hydrogen cyanide (HCN). We focus on quantifying large-scale seasonal behavior from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere, particularly in the tropics, and furthermore make detailed comparisons with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) chemistry climate model (incorporating tropospheric photochemistry, time-varying hydrocarbon emissions, and meteorological fields nudged from reanalysis). Comparisons with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of CO are also included …

The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity And Temperature Trends For Stratospheric Water, S. Fueglistaler, Y. S. Liu, T. J. Flannaghan, P. H. Haynes, D. P. Dee, W. J. Read, E. E. Remsberg, L. W. Thomason, D. F. Hurst, J. R. Lanzante, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual …

Process-Evaluation Of Tropospheric Humidity Simulated By General Circulation Models Using Water Vapor Isotopic Observations: 2. Using Isotopic Diagnostics To Understand The Mid And Upper Tropospheric Moist Bias In The Tropics And Subtropics, Camille Risi, David Noone, John Worden, Christian Frankenberg, Gabriele Stiller, Michael Kiefer, Bernd Funke, Kaley Walker, Peter Bernath, Matthias Schneider, Sandrine Bony, Jeonghoon Lee, Derek Brown, Christophe Sturm

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Evaluating the representation of processes controlling tropical and subtropical tropospheric relative humidity (RH) in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) is crucial to assess the credibility of predicted climate changes. GCMs have long exhibited a moist bias in the tropical and subtropical mid and upper troposphere, which could be due to the mis-representation of cloud processes or of the large-scale circulation, or to excessive diffusion during water vapor transport. The goal of this study is to use observations of the water vapor isotopic ratio to understand the cause of this bias. We compare the three-dimensional distribution of the water vapor isotopic …

The Integrated Wrf/Urban Modeling System: Development, Evaluation, And Applications To Urban Environmental Problems, Fei Chen, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Robert Bornstein, Jason Ching, C.S.B. Grimmond, Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Thomas Loridan, Kevin W. Manning, Alberto Martilli, Shiguang Miao, David J. Sailor, Francisco P. Salamanca, Haider Taha, Mukul Tewari, Xuemei Wang, Andrzej A. Wyszogrodzki, Chaolin Zhang

Mechanical and Materials Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modeling and microscale modeling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modeling system coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modeling system consists of: 1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, …

Slides: Present And Future Status Of Climate Change Computer Models, Warren M. Washington

Climate Change and the Future of the American West: Exploring the Legal and Policy Dimensions (Summer Conference, June 7-9)

Presenter: Warren M. Washington, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research.

1 page and 25 slides.

Abstract: A presentation will be given on the present and future status of climate change models. The evolution from simple climate models to fully complex Earth system models has led to an improved understanding of the causes of climate change and the impacts on the environment.

The U.S. National Climate Change Assessment: Do The Climate Models Project A Useful Picture Of Regional Climate?, Roger A. Pielke, Sr.

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

9 pages.

Includes illustrations

"Dr. Roger A. Pielke, Sr., President of the American Association of State Climatologists, Colorado State Climatologist and Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University"

"From testimony presented to the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, July 25, 2002, and published in Colorado Water, April 2003, 15-19."

Geochemical Variations In Peoria Loess Of Western Iowa Indicate Paleowinds Of Midcontinental North America During Last Glaciation, Daniel R. Muhs, E. Arthur Bettis Iii

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Peoria Loess deposited in western Iowa during the last glacial maximum (LGM) shows distinct geochemical and particle-size variations as a function of both depth and distance east of the Missouri River. Geochemical and particle-size data indicate that Peoria Loess in western Iowa probably had two sources: the Missouri River valley, and a source that lay to the west of the Missouri River. Both sources indicate that LGM paleowinds in western Iowa had a strong westerly component, similar to interpretations of previous workers. A compilation of loess studies in Iowa and elsewhere indicates that westerlv winds were dominant during loess transport …