Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Critical Factors And Individual Decision Making In Earthquake And Tsunami Preparedness Among Coastal Communities Inoregon U.S.A., Shelley Olds

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Earthquakes and tsunamis are natural hazards that cause considerable loss of life, destruction of property and infrastructure, and economic damage. Preparedness is critical in regions of significant earthquake and tsunami risk. A key challenge for organizations that manage hazard preparedness and response is mobilizing earthquake preparedness among individuals and families. This dissertation provides an examination of individual earthquake and tsunami preparedness from both a global and regional perspective. It comprises two publications that explore various aspects of disaster preparedness.

Chapter One provides an overview of global seismic and tsunami hazards, along with potential impacts, and addresses the challenges in promoting …

Primary Versus Secondary Gravity Wave Responses At F-Region Heights Generated By A Convective Source, C. J. Heale, P. A. Inchin, J. B. Snively

Publications

A 2D nonlinear, compressible model is used to simulate the acoustic-gravity wave (AGW, i.e., encompassing the spectrum of acoustic and gravity waves) response to a thunderstorm squall-line type source. We investigate the primary and secondary neutral AGW response in the thermosphere, consistent with waves that can couple to the F-region ionospheric plasma, and manifest as Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). We find that primary waves at z = 240 km altitude have wavelengths and phase speeds in the range 170–270 km, and 180–320 m/s, respectively. The secondary waves generated have wavelengths ranging from ∼100 to 600 km, and phase speeds from …

The Dynamics Of Nonlinear Atmospheric Acoustic-Gravity Waves Generated By Tsunamis Over Realistic Bathymetry, P. A. Inchin, C. J. Heale, J. B. Snively, M. D. Zettergren

Publications

The investigation of atmospheric tsunamigenic acoustic and gravity wave (TAGW) dynamics, from the ocean surface to the thermosphere, is performed through the numerical computations of the 3D compressible nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. Tsunami propagation is first simulated using a nonlinear shallow water model, which incorporates instantaneous or temporal evolutions of initial tsunami distributions (ITD). Ocean surface dynamics are then imposed as a boundary condition to excite TAGWs into the atmosphere from the ground level. We perform a case study of a large tsunami associated with the 2011 M9.1 Tohuku-Oki earthquake and parametric studies with simplified and demonstrative bathymetry and ITD. Our …

Toward Near‐Field Tsunami Forecasting Along The Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid Gnss Source Models, Amy L. Williamson, Diego Melgar, Brendan W. Crowell, Diego Argas, Timothy I. Melbourne, Yong Wei, Kevin Kwong

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Over the past 15 years and through multiple large and devastating earthquakes, tsunami warning systems have grown considerably in their efficacy in providing timely and accurate forecasts to affected communities. However, one part of tsunami warning that still needs improvement is forecasts catered to local, near‐field communities in the time after an earthquake rupture but before coastal inundation. In this study, we test a rapid, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)‐driven earthquake characterization model using a large data set of synthetic megathrust ruptures for its near‐field tsunami forecasting potential. We also provide a framework for tsunami forecasting that focuses on the …

Mesopause Airglow Disturbances Driven By Nonlinear Infrasonic Acoustic Waves Generated By Large Earthquakes, P. A. Inchin, J. B. Snively, J. Aguilar Guerrero, M. D. Zettergren, A. Williamson, D. Melgar

Publications

Near-epicentral mesopause airglow perturbations, driven by infrasonic acoustic waves (AWs) during a nighttime analog of the 2011 M9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, are simulated through the direct numerical computation of the 3D nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. Surface dynamics from a forward seismic wave propagation simulation, initialized with a kinematic slip model and performed with the SPECFEM3D_GLOBE model, are used to excite AWs into the atmosphere from ground level. Simulated mesopause airglow perturbations include steep oscillations and persistent nonlinear depletions up to 50% and 70% from the background state, respectively, for the hydroxyl OH(3,1) and oxygen O(1S) 557.7-nm emissions. Results suggest that …

Tsunamigenic Potential Of The Baiyun Slide Complex In The South China Sea, Linlin Li, Fengyan Shi, Gangfeng Ma, Qiang Qiu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

The Baiyun slide complex contains geological evidence for some of the largest landslide ever discovered in the continental slopes of the South China Sea. High-resolution seismic data suggest that a variety of landslides with varied scales have occurred repeatedly in this area. The largest landslide reconstructed from bathymetric and seismic data has an estimated spatial coverage of ~5,500 km² and a conservative volume of ~1,035 km³. Here, using geomorphological and geotechnical data, we construct a series of probable landslide scenarios and assess their tsunamigenic capacity. By treating the slides as deformable mudflows, we simulate the dynamics of …

Ionospheric Gravity Waves Driven By Oceanic Gravity Waves In Resonance: A Modeling Study In Search Of Their Spectra, Michael P. Hickey, Yonghui Yu

Publications

Ionospheric observations associated with the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have revealed gravity waves having spectral characteristics that depend on their proximity to the epicenter. There is a preponderance of medium-scale waves in the vicinity of the epicenter, a significant bifurcation into short- and long-period waves over the Hawaiian archipelago, and a narrow and rich spectrum of waves over the West Coast and inland of the United States (U.S.). Guided by these previous observations, we consider wave sources as triads of nonlinearly interacting oceanic gravity waves, whose wave parameters satisfy resonant conditions. These waves are simulated using a 2-D nonlinear model describing …

Ionospheric Signatures Of Gravity Waves Produced By The 2004 Sumatra And 2011 Tohoku Tsunamis: A Modeling Study, Michael P. Hickey, Yonghui Yu, Wenqing Wang

Publications

Ionospheric fluctuations inferred from observations of total electron content have previously been attributed to tsunamis and have confirmed the strong coupling between Earth’s ocean and ionosphere via atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs). To further advance our understanding of this wave coupling process we employ a linear full-wave model and a nonlinear time-dependent model to examine the ionospheric response to the AGW perturbations induced by the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. In the 2004 case, our modeling analyses reveal that one component of the propagating AGWs becomes dynamically unstable in the E-region ionosphere at a range exceeding 2000 km in …

2015 Gsa International Distinguished Lecturer Tours Key Locations In Central And South America, Lisa L. Ely

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

As the International Lecturer from North America, I visited 11 destinations in Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. The tour was designed to include locations where the topic of my presentation, “Following in the Footsteps of Darwin:
Combining Geological and Historical Evidence to Assess Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards,” would have direct relevance.

Geology In Environmental Management, Michael A. Kruge

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

From the geological perspective, the two overriding environmental management concerns are the destructive impact of hazardous natural events on human health and property and the deleterious impact of human activity on the natural environment. The knowledge derived from the geological sciences serves as the basis for a more enlightened approach to the reduction of unnecessary risk involved in the siting and construction of buildings and transportation networks, as well as the extraction of natural resources and waste management. Armed with such knowledge along with political sensitivity, environmental managers will have opportunities for positive social impact in negotiating the challenges as …

Will Oscillating Wave Surge Converters Survive Tsunamis?, Laura Cooke, P. Christodoulides, E. Renzi, T. Stefanakis, F. Dias

Articles

With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC) could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, …

A Probabilistic Tsunami Model For Chile, Vaclav Rara, Cristina Arango, Petr Puncochar, Goran Trendafiloski, Chris Ewing, Adam Podlaha, Deepak Vatvani, Maarten Van Ormondt

International Conference on Hydroinformatics

In disaster-prone regions such as Chile, catastrophe models help (re)insurers to understand and quantify the risks facing their businesses. The 2010 (M8.8) Maule (Chile) earthquake highlighted the need for quantifying losses not only from primary perils (in this case earthquake) but also from secondary perils such as tsunamis, which contribute to the overall event losses but are not often modelled. This paper presents a new catastrophe model for Chile developed by Impact Forecasting (IF) in collaboration with Aon Benfield Research partners. The model has the capability to model losses due to earthquake (ground-shaking) and induced tsunamis along the Chilean coast …

Did A Submarine Landslide Contribute To The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami?, David R. Tappin, Stephan T. Grilli, Jeffrey C. Harris, Robert J. Geller, Timothy Masterlark, James T. Kirby, Fengyan Shi, Gangfeng Ma, K.K.S. Thingbaijam, P. Martin Mai

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40. m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) …

Tsunamis: Desprevenidos Por La Realidad De La Geología Un Estudio De La Posibilidad Y Precauciones Por Un Tsunami En Puerto López, Manabí, Ecuador, Abigail Eurich

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Tsunamis occur in the Pacific Ocean about once every 1.5 years (Berninghausen, 1962). Forty-nine Tsunamis are recorded to have hit the western coast of South America since 1562, though only 3 hit the coast of Ecuador specifically (Berninghausen, 1962). However, it is still important to recognize the possibility of having a tsunami in Ecuador and plan accordingly. On a very complex junction of the Nazca and South American plate, with the Nazca and Carnegie Ridges as well as the Galapagos hotspot, this part of the world is apt to many earthquakes, submarine landslides, and volcanic activity which all have the …

Slides: Unido: Partner For Prosperity, Kandeh K. Yumkella

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Presenter: Dr. Kandeh Yumkella, Chairman, UN Energy; Director General, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)

16 slides

The 2009 Samoa And 2010 Chile Tsunamis As Observed In The Ionosphere Using Gps Total Electron Content, David A. Galvan, Attila Komjathy, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D., Anthony J. Mannucci

Publications

Ground‐based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the Samoa earthquake of 29 September 2009 and the Chile earthquake of 27 February 2010. Both earthquakes produced ocean tsunamis that were destructive to coastal communities near the epicenters, and both were observed in tidal gauge and buoy measurements throughout the Pacific Ocean. We observe fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Global Ionospheric Mapping software. These TEC measurements were …

Detection Of The 2010 Chilean Tsunami Using Satellite Altimetry, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, O. A. Godin, J. F. Legeais, E. Gica, V. V. Titov

CCPO Publications

Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude is much smaller than it is closer to shore. An effective early warning system, however, must be able to observe an impending tsunami threat far away from the shore in order to provide the necessary lead-time for coastal inhabitants to find safety. Given the expansiveness of the ocean, sensors capable of detecting the tsunami must also have very broad areal coverage. The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami was definitively detected in the open ocean from both sea surface height and sea surface roughness measurements provided by satellite …

Post-Disaster Assessment Of Northeastern Coastal Region For The 2011 Sendai Earthquake And Tsunami, Ruopu Li, Shishi Liu, Qingfeng Guan, Yi Peng

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The 2011 Sendai Earthquake has hit the north-east of Japan triggering a destructive tsunami that has caused extensive damage. A fast and effective post-disaster assessment is highly imperative for the recovery of this region. This study modeled the tsunami-affected areas of coastal Fukushima Prefecture using Landsat-7 ETM+ data and terrain analysis. The result shows that most of the coastal areas were significantly affected by the tsunami. The low-lying plains along the coast are particularly vulnerable to the tsunami.

Atmospheric Airglow Fluctuations Due To A Tsunami‐Driven Gravity Wave Disturbance, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D., G. Schubert, R. L. Walterscheid

Publications

A spectral full‐wave model is used to study the upward propagation of a gravity wave disturbance and its effect on atmospheric nightglow emissions. Gravity waves are generated by a surface displacement that mimics a tsunami having a maximum amplitude of 0.5 m, a characteristic horizontal wavelength of 400 km, and a horizontal phase speed of 200 m/s. The gravity wave disturbance can reach F region altitudes before significant viscous dissipation occurs. The response of the OH Meinel nightglow in the mesopause region (∼87 km altitude) produces relative brightness fluctuations, which are ∼1% of the mean for overhead viewing. The wave …

Propagation Of Tsunami-Driven Gravity Waves Into The Thermosphere And Ionosphere, Michael P. Hickey, G. Schubert, R. L. Walterscheid

Publications

Recent observations have revealed large F-region electron density perturbations (~100%) and total electron content (TEC) perturbations (~30%) that appear to be correlated with tsunamis. The characteristic speed and horizontal wavelength of the disturbances are ~200 m/s and ~400 km. We describe numerical simulations using our spectral full-wave model (SFWM) of the upward propagation of a spectrum of gravity waves forced by a tsunami, and the interaction of these waves with the F-region ionosphere. The SFWM describes the propagation of linear, steady-state acoustic-gravity waves in a nonisothermal atmosphere with the inclusion of eddy and molecular diffusion of heat and momentum, ion …

The Holocene Paleo-Tsunami History Of West Australia, S. R. Scheffers, A. Scheffers, D. Kelletat, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

West Australian coastlines experienced several tsunamis in mid-Holocene times. To expand our knowledge about Holocene tsunami events in West Australia, the authors extended the previously studied spatial scale to include the central- and south-western coastlines. Several of the discovered events were mid- and young Holocene (≤1000 yr BP) tsunami impacts on the outer coast of the Cape Range Peninsula. Five hundred kilometres to the south between Cape Cuvier and Point Quobba, additional tsunami evidence exists on top of steep cliffs over a coastal stretch of 30 km. The sedimentary signature of two tsunamis is documented in this area by wide …

Reconnaissance Of Historic (Post-Ad 1000) High-Energy Deposits Along The Atlantic Coasts Of Southwest Britain, Ireland And Brittany, France, S. K. Haslett, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Sand and gravel deposits from the Atlantic coasts of southwest Britain, Brittany and western Ireland are identified as potential indicators of historic (post-AD 1000) ocean-sourced high-energy events, such as storm surges and tsunami. This is an important historic period as it includes the climatic perturbations of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and also seismogenic events, such as the Lisbon tsunami of 1755. Ten new sites are identified from various coastal settings and dated using eight new radiocarbon dates alongside previously published data. Generally, sites do not appear to record multiple high-energy events, suggesting that either only …

Catastrophic Wave Erosion, Bristol Channel, United Kingdom: Impact Of Tsunami?, E. A. Bryant, S. Haslett

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

On January 30, 1607, a massive wave from the ocean surged up Bristol Channel in the United Kingdom, flooding more than 500 km2 of lowland along 570 km of coast. It killed 2000 people and is considered Britain’s worst natural disaster on land. The wave occurred on a fine day and surprised inhabitants. Contemporary descriptions of the event have many of the characteristics of accounts of recent catastrophic tsunamis. Geomorphic evidence for tsunamis in the channel can be found in the form of transported and imbricated boulders, bedrock sculpturing on coastal platforms and ramps, and, at isolated locations, wholesale erosion …

Cosmogenic Mega-Tsunami In The Australia Region: Are They Supported By Aboriginal And Maori Legends?, Edward A. Bryant, G. Walsh, D. Abbott

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Mega-tsunami have affected much of the coastline of Australia over the past millennium. Such catastrophic waves have left an imprint consisting predominently of bedrock sculpturing of the rocky coastline and deposition of marine sediments to elevations reaching 130 mabove sea level. One of the largest of these events occurred in eastern Australia in the fifteenth century. This event may be related to the Mahuika impact crater found at 48.38 S, 166.48 E on the continental shelf 250 km south of New Zealand. A comet at least 500 m in diameter formed the crater. Maori and Aboriginal legends allude to significant …

Evidence For Historic Coastal High-Energy Wave Impact (Tsunami?) In North Wales, United Kingdom, S. Haslett, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Understanding the contribution of high-energy events (e.g. storms, tsunami) to coastal evolution is currently much debated. Field investigations in North Wales on Anglesey and the Lleyn Peninsula have identified four sites where imbricated boulder trains occur that are discriminators of wave characteristics. Clast analysis indicates that storm wave heights (ca. 20 m), in excess of known extremes (5 to < 9 m), are required to transport them. A plausible explanation is the historic impact of tsunami (≥ 5 m high) that may have been caused either by a) a submarine slide situated offshore on the edge of the continental shelf or Rockall Trough, b) through seismic activity, as the region is one of the most seismically active regions of the British Isles, or c) impact of comet debris in the North Atlantic, with a candidate event around AD 1014. Field evidence suggests that such a high wave-energy event has not recurred along this coast within the last 400 years.

The Ad 1607 Coastal Flood In The Bristol Channel And Severn Estuary: Historical Records From Devon And Cornwall (Uk), S. K. Haslett, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

The 1607 coastal flood was a high magnitude event that may have been the result of either a storm surge or a tsunami wave(s). Contemporary accounts describe the impacts of the surge/wave at Appledore and Barnstaple in North Devon, and a 19'x' century comment exists for Hayle in. Cornwall. An examination restricted to these local accounts reveals that the surge altitude or tsunami run-up at Appledore, at the estuary mouth, exceeded 8.5 in OD (a surge/wave height in excess of 3.28 in, possibly lip to c. 7-8 in), and at Barnstaple, about 12 km up-estuary it reached 7.53 in OD …

Extreme Marine Inundations (Tsunamis?) Of Coastal Western Australia, J. Nott, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Along 2500 km of the Western Australian coast, prehistoric ephemeral marine inundations (storm surges or tsunamis) were much larger than those that occurred since European settlement. The evidence is in the form of shell and coral deposits atop 30-m-high headlands, sand deposits containing large boulders, shell and coral several kilometers inland, and fields of large imbricated boulders across shore platforms. The size of transported boulders and the altitude of these deposits suggest that tsunamis were responsible, not large storm waves. The orientation of boulders reveals paleowave directions. Radiocarbon dating of the deposits suggest three very large tsunamis along this coast …

Was The Ad 1607 Coastal Flooding Event In The Severn Estuary And Bristol Channel (Uk) Due To A Tsunami?, Edward A. Bryant, S. K. Haslett

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Extensive coastal lowlands known as Levels border the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel in southwest Britain. The Levels are the result of many years of salt marsh reclamation, apparently initiated during the Roman Period, through a programme of sea bank construction. The altitude of the Levels is typically between 5-6 m Ordnance Datum (OD), an altitude that is below the current Mean High Water Springs level in the Severn Estuary. Therefore, the Levels are vulnerable to flooding, not only from river sources, but also from the sea at times when sea banks are overtopped and/or breached. A number of significant …

Thermoluminescence Evidence For The Deposition Of Coastal Sediments By Tsunami Wave Action, D. M. Price, Edward A. Bryant, R. W. Young

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Changes in our coastline take on various forms and are the product of differing wave and aeolian processes. Of all these processes tsunami action surely represents the most rapid and violent agent wreaking devastation not only along the immediate shoreline but also extending many kilometres inland. Until now the main line of evidence supporting the deposition of sediments by this means has lain in the careful examination of the sedimentological record. This process is painstaking, costly and time consuming and then not necessarily conclusive. Thermoluminescence may offer an alternative line of evidence which may be taken as either confirmatory or, …

Morphology And Process On The Lateritic Coastline Near Darwin, Northern Australia, R. W. Young, Edward A. Bryant

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

Coastal morphology near Darwin is controlled mainly by the gentle warping of a lateritic profile. In synclines the lateritic cuirasse forms extensive shore platforms, but on the anticlines the pallid zone of the weathering profile is eroded by waves, causing the undercut cuirasse to collapse. The dominant modern process on the shore platforms is solutional attack on the laterite, resulting in large depressions. Many of the platforms are covered by relict layers of cemented laterite cobbles transported by waves of high energy. C14 ages on carbonate cement between the cobbles show that one sheet was deposited at about 3700 BP …