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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
In an effort to learn if systematic misperceptions by market participants can undermine efficient prices and create regular profit opportunities, Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993) investigated whether participants in the basketball-betting market overbet streaking (or "hot") teams. The purpose of this note is determine whether streaking teams - both hot and cold-in college football alter point spreads to an exploitable degree. The pointwise outcomes of college football teams following 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, 8-, and 9-game streaks during the 1996-2000 seasons. Streaks in the aggregate produced only breakeven results when used to predict the outcomes of …
Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its updated, Fourth Assessment Report, forecasts. The Report was commissioned at great cost in order to provide policy recommendations to governments. It included predictions of dramatic and harmful increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked, are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is "no." To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one …