Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Coupling Hec-Ras And Hec-Hms In Precipitation Runoff Modelling And Evaluating Flood Plain Inundation Map, Balbhadra Thakur, Ranjan Parajuli, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad, Ritu Gupta

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

The climate change and land use change have raised the challenges associated with increased runoff and flood management. The risks associated with flooding have been increasing with development in flood plain and changing climate resulting in increase in inundation of flood plain. The current study will help to evaluate the extent of flood plain in the study area – copper slough watershed (CSW) in Champaign, Illinois; utilizing the known precipitation and land use. The study of CSW is taken into account, as this is the largest watershed of Champaign City and had undergone major land use change increasing the flooding …

Using Wavelet To Analyze Periodicities In Hydrologic Variables, Balbhadra Thakur, Pratik Pathak, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad, Miguel Bernardez

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

The trend and shift in the seasonal temperature, precipitation and streamflow time series across the Midwest have been analyzed, for the period 1960-2013, using the statistical analyses (Mann- Kendall test with and without considering short term persistence (MK2 and MK1, respectively) and Pettitt test). The paper also utilizes a relatively new approach, wavelet analysis, for testing the existence of trend and shift in the time series. The method has the ability to decompose a time series in to lower (trend) and higher frequency components (noise). Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been employed in the present study with an aim to …

Streamflow Pattern Variations Resulting From Future Climate Change In Middle Tianshan Mountains Region In China, Feiyun Zhang, Lanhai Li, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In arid and semi-arid regions of North West china, glacier-melt, seasonal snowmelt and rainfall are the primary sources of flow in the rivers that originate from alpine areas. Spring and summer peak flow resulting from snowmelt and rainfall, respectively, are the main characteristics of streamflow pattern. Because of the damages caused by the spring and summer peak flow, a better understanding of the streamflow pattern variation under future climate warming is crucial. To analyze the variation of streamflow pattern under climate warming, the Kaidu River and the Manasi River watersheds in northern and southern slopes of Middle Tianshan Mountains, located …

Estimation Of Performance Indices For The Planning Of Sustainable Transportation Systems, Alexander Paz, Pankaj Maheshwari, Pushkin Kachroo, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In the context of sustainable transportation systems, previous studies have either focused only on the transportation system or have not used a methodology that enables the treatment of incomplete, vague, and qualitative information associated with the available data. This study proposes a system of systems (SOS) and a fuzzy logic modeling approach. The SOS includes the Transportation, Activity, and Environment systems. The fuzzy logic modeling approach enables the treatment of the vagueness associated with some of the relevant data. Performance Indices (PIs) are computed for each system using a number of performance measures. The PIs illustrate the aggregated performance of …

Estimating Annual Precipitation For The Colorado River Basin Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Estimating long-lead time precipitation under the stress of increased climatic variability is a challenging task in the field of hydrology. A modified Support Vector Machine (SVM) based framework is proposed to estimate annual precipitation using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, consisting of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a period of 1900–2008, are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with a 1 year lead time. The SVM model is applied to 17 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. The overall results revealed that …

Losing The Lake: Development And Deployment Of An Educational Game, Joseph M. Vesco, Katie Gilgen, Anne Paine, Marissa Owens, Michael Nussbaum, Gale M. Sinatra, Sajjad Ahmad, Kent J. Crippen, Sergiu Dascalu, Frederick C. Harris

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

When asked what the top three issues of the Las Vegas region were, the reply was “water, water, water!" This was the result of a survey done a few years ago of Las Vegas Valley TV anchors. The reason for this response is that sustainability of the urban environments requires sufficient water resources as does population growth. With the advent of global climate change, this resource is in danger. Water flow and mountainous ice packs are impacted by this change in climate there by impacting the amount of water the the region. This is compounded over time as the population …

Evaluating Changes And Estimating Seasonal Precipitation For Colorado River Basin Using Stochastic Non-Parametric Disaggregation Technique, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Precipitation estimation is an important and challenging task in hydrology because of high variability and changing climate. This research involves (1) analyzing changes (trend and step) in seasonal precipitation and (2) estimating seasonal precipitation by disaggregating water year precipitation using a k-nearest neighbor (KNN) nonparametric technique for 29 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin. Water year precipitation data from 1900 to 2008 are subdivided into four seasons (i.e., autumn, winter, spring, and summer). Two statistical tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) are used to evaluate trend changes, and a rank sum test is used to identify the step change in …

The Carbon Footprint Associated With Water Management Policy Options In The Las Vegas Valley, Nevada, Eleeja Shrestha, Sajjad Ahmad, Walter Johnson, Jacimaria R. Batista

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

A system dynamics model was developed to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions associated with conveyance of water from the water source to the distribution laterals of the Las Vegas Valley. In addition, the impact of several water management policies, including water conservation, reuse, and population growth rate change was evaluated. The results show that, at present, nearly 0.53 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions per year are released due to energy use for water conveyance in distribution laterals of the Valley from Lake Mead, located 32.2 km (20 miles) southeast of the Las Vegas at an …

The 2009-2010 El Nino: Hydrologic Relief To U.S. Regions, Glenn A. Tootle, Thomas C. Piechota, Oubeidillah Aziz, William Paul Miller, Venkat Lakshmi, John A. Dracup, Carly Jerla

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Current forecasts by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are that the Pacific Ocean will experience El Niño conditions in late 2009 and into 2010. These forecasts are similar to past El Niño events in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1986–1987, and 2002–2003.

Evaluating the hydrologic conditions for these past El Niño events reveals that during these times, surface water supply conditions improved in many parts of the United States, including the Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. At the same time, the Pacific Northwest and other specific regions of the United States experienced below-average water supply conditions. This is consistent with the …

Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations For Long Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the …

Role Of Forward Model In Surface-Wave Studies To Delineate A Buried High-Velocity Layer, Xiaohui Jin, Barbara Luke, Carlos Calderon-Macias

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Procedures are tested and compared for processing Rayleigh surface wave data to obtain one-dimensional shear wave velocity profiles for a hypothetical site that contains a buried high-velocity layer (HVL). The main purpose of such an investigation would be to discriminate and characterize the HVL. When target dispersion curves are derived from synthetic time histories, for the most part, the HVL is better identified when profiles are inverted using only the fundamental mode of Rayleigh wave propagation, rather than a more compatible but more complex forward model. The outcomes imply that in practice, a simple forward model might be more successful …

Interpreting Surface-Wave Data For A Site With Shallow Bedrock, Daniel W. Casto, Barbara Luke, Carlos Calderon-Macias, Ronald Kaufmann

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

The inversion of dispersive Rayleigh-wave data has been shown to be successful in providing reliable estimated shear-wave velocities within unconsolidated materials in the near surface. However, in a case where the multi-channel analysis of surface waves method was applied to a site consisting of clay residuum overlying basalt bedrock, inversion for the fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave resulted in shear-wave velocities within the rock that are less than half of expected values. Forward modeling reveals that the fundamental-mode dispersion curve is hardly sensitive to bedrock velocity perturbations over a practical range of wavelengths, leading to poorly constrained solutions. Standard surface-wave methods can …

Regional Analysis Of Trend And Step Changes Observed In Hydroclimatic Variables Around The Colorado River Basin, William Paul Miller, Thomas C. Piechota

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Recent research has suggested that changes in temperature and precipitation events due to climate change have had a significant impact on the availability and timing of streamflow. In this study, monthly temperature and precipitation data collected over 29 climate divisions covering the entire Colorado River basin and monthly natural flow data from 29 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge locations along the Colorado River are investigated for trend or step changes using parametric and nonparametric statistical tests. Temperature increases are persistent (at least 10 climate divisions over 6 months in trend analysis) throughout the year over the Colorado River basin, whereas …

Improved Parameterization To Invert Rayleigh-Wave Data For Shallow Profiles Containing Stiff Inclusions, Carlos Calderon-Macias, Barbara Luke

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Inversion of shear-wave velocity profiles from phase-velocity measurements of Rayleigh-wave energy for sites containing stiff layers can be erroneous if such layers are not characterized in the starting or reference model. Incorporation of a priori knowledge then is key for converging upon a realistic or meaningful solution. Resolving soil profiles in desert regions where stiff layers cemented with calcium carbonate are intermixed with softer, uncemented media is an application for which locating shallow stiff inclusions has important implications. Identification of the stiff layers is critical for foundation design and cost estimating of excavations. A parameterization that seems adequate for this …

Relationships Between Pacific And Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures And U.S. Streamflow Variability, Glenn A. Tootle, Thomas C. Piechota

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

An evaluation of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and continental U.S. streamflow was performed to identify coupled regions of SST and continental U.S. streamflow variability. Both SSTs and streamflow displayed temporal variability when applying the singular value decomposition (SVD) statistical method. Initially, an extended temporal evaluation was performed using the entire period of record (i.e., all years from 1951 to 2002). This was followed by an interdecadal-temporal evaluation for the Pacific (Atlantic) Ocean based on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)). Finally, an extended temporal evaluation was performed using detrended SST …

Coupled Oceanic-Atmospheric Variability And U.S. Streamflow, Glenn A. Tootle, Thomas C. Piechota, Ashok Singh

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

A study of the influence of interdecadal, decadal, and interannual oceanic-atmospheric influences on streamflow in the United States is presented. Unimpaired streamflow was identified for 639 stations in the United States for the period 1951–2002. The phases (cold/negative or warm/positive) of Pacific Ocean (El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) oceanic-atmospheric influences were identified for the year prior to the streamflow year (i.e., long lead time). Statistical significance testing of streamflow, based on the interdecadal, decadal, and interannual oceanic-atmospheric phase (warm/positive or cold/negative), was performed by …

Soil Moisture As An Indicator Of Weather Extremes, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas C. Piechota, Ujjwal Narayan, Chunling Tang

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In this paper, we investigate floods and droughts in the Upper Mississippi basin over a 50-year period (1950–1999) using a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – 3 Layer). Simulations have been carried out between January 1950 and December 1999 at daily time-step and 1/8° spatial resolution for the water budget and at hourly time-step and 1° spatial resolution for the energy balance. This paper will provide valuable insights to the slow response components of the hydrological cycle and its diagnostic/predictive value in the case of floods and droughts. The paper compares the use of the Palmer Drought Severity Index …

Creep And Creep-Recovery Models For Wood Under High Stress Levels, Zhiyong Cai, Kenneth J. Fridley, Michael O. Hunt, David V. Rosowsky

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Forty small clear southern pine specimens were loaded under third-point bending to examine creep and creep-recovery behavior for wood under high stress levels. Stress levels of between 69% and 91% of the predicted static strength were applied for 23 h with 1 h allowed for recovery, and the resulting deflection vs. time behavior was studied. The experimental creep and creep-recovery behavior was modeled using modified power law functions. The results indicate that these functions provide the best fit to both primary and secondary experimental data. The empirical models can be used to simulate the viscoelastic behavior of wood under high …

Biological Reduction Of Perchlorate In Ion Exchange Regenerant Solutions Containing High Salinity And Ammonium Levels, Tina M. Gingras, Jacimaria R. Batista

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

The most promising technologies to remove perchlorate from water are ion exchange and biological reduction. Although successful, ion exchange only separates perchlorate from water; it does not eliminate it from the environment. The waste streams from these systems contain the caustic or saline regenerant solutions used in the process as well as high levels of perchlorate. Biological reduction could be used to treat the regenerant waste solutions from the ion exchange process. A treatment scheme, combining ion exchange and biodegradation, is proposed to completely remove perchlorate from the environment. Perchlorate-laden resins generate brines containing salt concentrations up to 6% or …

A Dynamic Simulation Model Of Beach Sand Replenishment: A Case Study Of Santa Barbara, California, David Turbow, Steve Norwick, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Sediment deprivation from dam installments contributes to beach erosion yet the underlying physical and economic factors linking them together have traditionally been isolated during regional planning. In order to gain a better understanding of the behavior of a managed beach system, a dynamic simulation model was developed incorporating physical and monetary factors influencing the amount of available beach sand. The Santa Barbara littoral cell was chosen as a case study to evaluate the feasibility of beach preservation goals under scenarios in which annual sand replenishment funding, sand prices, or sediment recovery from behind dams were limiting factors to available beach …

Alternative Principal Components Regression Procedures For Dendrohydrologic Reconstructions, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Thomas C. Piechota, John A. Dracup

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Streamflow reconstruction using tree ring information (dendrohydrology) has traditionally used principal components analysis (PCA) and stepwise regression to form a transfer function. However, PCA has several procedural choices that may result in very different reconstructions. This study assesses the different procedures in PCA-based regression and suggests alternative procedures for selection of variables and principal components. Cross-validation statistics are presented as an alternative for independently testing and identifying the optimal model. The objective is to use these statistics as a measure of the model's performance to find a conceptually acceptable model with a low prediction error and the fewest number of …

Comparison Of One-Dimensional And Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling Approaches For Red River Basin, Sajjad Ahmad, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A devastating flood in Red River valley in 1997 emphasized the need to study the flood control measures in the Red River basin using state of the art modeling tools. The Red River and its floodplains can be modeled using one-dimensional, quasi two-dimensional or fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. Each modeling approach has its own advantages and limitations. The main purpose of this report is a comparison between one-dimensional (or quasi two dimensional) and fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approaches for modeling floods in the Red River basin.

A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, MIKE 21, coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) …