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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predictability Issues Associated With Near-Freezing Precipitation Type In Complex Terrain, Matthew Seymour
Predictability Issues Associated With Near-Freezing Precipitation Type In Complex Terrain, Matthew Seymour
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Predictability challenges are heightened in winter weather forecasting when the environment for high-impact weather is marginal or varies over short distances. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP), such as the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), and ensemble forecast systems, such as the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), are useful for constraining forecasts. However, their use can be challenging in marginal, near-freezing, situations when precipitation type is uncertain. Uncertainties in planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP) parameterizations and subtle synoptic-scale model errors brought on by differences in initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/BCs) complicate the p-type forecast. Further, complex terrain, such as …
Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Interaction : Sensitivity Of Weather Forecast Models To Complex Land Surface Conditions In New York State, Lanxi Min
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The land-atmosphere coupling system is important for the simulation of key quantities like surface temperature, precipitation, and radiative energy. Over the complex terrain of New York State, the land-atmosphere coupling process is quite complex and misrepresenting the coupling processes could lead to strong biases. Evaluating the weather forecasting models is vital for enhancing understanding of physical and processes and further improving the model forecasting. A comprehensive observation network, the New York State Mesonet (NYSM) provides a great opportunity to investigate how the land atmosphere coupling process are simulated over complex terrain region. This research includes three components. In first part, …
Aerosol And Terrain Effects On Winter Cloud And Precipitation Over New York State, Yuyi Du
Aerosol And Terrain Effects On Winter Cloud And Precipitation Over New York State, Yuyi Du
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Prediction of regional weather and climate regarding precipitation for a region such as the Northeast US with its complex terrain and aerosol environment constitutes a major challenge. Furthermore, complex thermodynamic structures occur in and around New York State (NYS) owing to its complex topography paired with its coastal regions, ultimately affecting cloud and precipitation microphysics. The microphysical processes within the weather systems that produce orographic precipitation are not fully understood. These processes include, but are not limited to, liquid-ice interactions, ice growth through vapor deposition, riming, and aggregation, cloud-aerosol interactions, and melting and refreezing upon sedimentation to the surface. These …
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …