Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Divergent Trends In Ecosystem Services Under Different Climate-Management Futures In A Fire-Prone Forest Landscape, Joshua S. Halofsky, Jessica E. Halofsky, Miles A. Hemstrom, Anita T. Morzillo, Xiaoping Zhou, Daniel C. Donato

Institute for Natural Resources Publications

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in …