Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment Of Uncertainty In Cmip5 Projections Related To Stratosphere-Troposhere Coupling, E. Manzini, A. Yu. Karpechko, J. Anstey, M. P. Baldwin, R. X. Black, C. Cagnazzo, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, B. Christiansen, Paolo Davini, E. Gerber, M. Giorgettta, L. Gray, S. C. Hardiman, Y. Y. Lee, D. R. Marsh, Brent A. Mcdaniel, A. Purich, A. A. Scaife, D. Shindell, S. W. Son, S. Watanabe, G. Zappa

Faculty and Research Publications

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in …