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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Strengthening Confidence In Climate Change Impact Science, Mary I. O'Connor, Johnna M. Holding, Carrie V. Kappel, Carlos M. Duarte, Keith Brander, Christopher J. Brown, John F. Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T. Burrows, Benjamin S. Halpern, Wolfgang Kiessling, Pippa Moore, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Elvira S. Poloczanska, David S. Schoeman, William J. Sydeman, Anthony J. Richardson Jan 2015

Strengthening Confidence In Climate Change Impact Science, Mary I. O'Connor, Johnna M. Holding, Carrie V. Kappel, Carlos M. Duarte, Keith Brander, Christopher J. Brown, John F. Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T. Burrows, Benjamin S. Halpern, Wolfgang Kiessling, Pippa Moore, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Elvira S. Poloczanska, David S. Schoeman, William J. Sydeman, Anthony J. Richardson

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to …


Projected Risks To Groundwater-Dependent Terrestrial Vegetation Caused By Changing Climate And Groundwater Abstraction In The Central Perth Basin, Western Australia, Olga Barron, Raymond H. Froend, Geoff Hodgson, Riasat Ali, Warrick Dawes, Phil Davies, Don Macfarlane Jan 2013

Projected Risks To Groundwater-Dependent Terrestrial Vegetation Caused By Changing Climate And Groundwater Abstraction In The Central Perth Basin, Western Australia, Olga Barron, Raymond H. Froend, Geoff Hodgson, Riasat Ali, Warrick Dawes, Phil Davies, Don Macfarlane

Research outputs 2013

The effect of potential climate change on groundwater-dependent vegetation largely depends on the nature of the climate change (drying or wetting) and the level of current ecosystem dependence on groundwater resources. In south-western Australia, climate projections suggest a high likelihood of a warmer and drier climate. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts by 2030 at the regional scale on groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation (GDTV) adapted to various watertable depths, on the basis of the combined consideration of groundwater modelling results and the framework for GDTV risk assessment. The methodology was tested for the historical period from 1984 to 2007, allowing …


Meta-Analysis Reveals Complex Marine Biological Responses To The Interactive Effects Of Ocean Acidification And Warming, Ben P. Harvey, Dylan Gwynn-Jones, Philippa J. Moore Jan 2013

Meta-Analysis Reveals Complex Marine Biological Responses To The Interactive Effects Of Ocean Acidification And Warming, Ben P. Harvey, Dylan Gwynn-Jones, Philippa J. Moore

Research outputs 2013

Ocean acidification and warming are considered two of the greatest threats to marine biodiversity, yet the combined effect of these stressors on marine organisms remains largely unclear. Using a meta-analytical approach, we assessed the biological responses of marine organisms to the effects of ocean acidification and warming in isolation and combination. As expected biological responses varied across taxonomic groups, life-history stages, and trophic levels, but importantly, combining stressors generally exhibited a stronger biological (either positive or negative) effect. Using a subset of orthogonal studies, we show that four of five of the biological responses measured (calcification, photosynthesis, reproduction, and survival, …