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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Feasibility Of Multi-Year Forecast For The Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling, Brian Plucinski, Yan Sun, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert R. Gilies, James Eklund, Chih-Chia Wang
Feasibility Of Multi-Year Forecast For The Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling, Brian Plucinski, Yan Sun, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert R. Gilies, James Eklund, Chih-Chia Wang
Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications
The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the US economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a …
Feasibility Of Predicting Vietnam’S Autumn Rainfall Regime Based On The Tree-Ring Record And Decadal Variability, Yan Sun, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert R. Gilies, Kyle G. Hansen
Feasibility Of Predicting Vietnam’S Autumn Rainfall Regime Based On The Tree-Ring Record And Decadal Variability, Yan Sun, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert R. Gilies, Kyle G. Hansen
Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications
We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall ( RA ) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s RA along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as …