Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Protecting The Vulnerable: Tornado Sheltering And Communication Of Public Shelters With A Case Study From The Covid-19 Pandemic, Craig Douglas Croskery

Theses and Dissertations

One of the greatest natural hazards that is faced with in much of the United States are tornadoes. Despite improvements in the warning processes, the risk of significant loss of life remains high. That is particularly true with vulnerable communities which have higher proportions of mobile homes; however, violent tornadoes are very difficult to manage in permanent homes or buildings as well. As a result, tornado shelters have been built in some communities and have become available to the public. However, their presence is intermittent, and there are many tornado-prone areas that lack such shelters.

After a public survey, it …

Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Operational forecasters face a plethora of challenges when making a forecast; they must consider multiple data sources ranging from radar and satellites to surface and upper air observations, to numerical weather prediction output. Forecasts must be done in a limited window of time, which adds an additional layer of difficulty to the task. These challenges are exacerbated by winter mixed precipitation events where slight differences in thermodynamic profiles or changes in terrain create different precipitation types across small areas. In addition to being difficult to forecast, mixed precipitation events can have large-scale impacts on our society.

Small-Scale Variability In Warm Season, Precipitation Around An Urban Area: A Case Study Of Louisville-Jefferson County, Ky., Isaiah I. Kingsberry

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Numerous studies have detected anomalous precipitation patterns occurring up to 50 km downwind of major cities, providing major evidence that cities inadvertently modify precipitation and atmospheric circulations. Louisville is one such major city with a growing body of evidence of inadvertent precipitation modification. Despite these efforts, the physical mechanisms driving small-scale and unintentional changes in urban precipitation are little understood, being rooted largely in theory rather than in physical observations. This study seeks to build upon previous research by analyzing ground-based precipitation observations recorded by a high-density gauge network located within approximately 40 km of Louisville’s urban center. The results …

The Impact Of Sea-Level Rise In Numerically Modeled Landfalling Hurricanes: Katrina And The Gulf Coast., Serenity Nadirah Mercuri

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With climate change, landfalling hurricanes become an increasing threat to coastal regions. However, the interactions between the coastal landscape and landfalling hurricanes are often overlooked when addressing sea-level rise outside of inundation and independent of sea surface temperature. This study analyzed the potential impacts regarding structure and intensity as a result of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico using the WRF-ARW numerical model coupled with a 1D ocean model. Analysis showed that 10 m windspeed from landfall forward was higher in modified coastlines, and minimum sea-level pressure post-landfall was consistently lower for modified runs where storms maintain a higher …

Applications Of A Lightning Proxy To Generate Synthetic Lightning For Use In Physics-Based Image-Chain Models, Bryan G. Castro

Theses and Dissertations

A method of generating synthetic lightning through the use of a convective available potential energy (CAPE) times precipitation rate (P) proxy is applied over three distinct climatological zones of the world for a single warm season: central and southern AZ of the United States, central Cuba, and North Korea. Global Forecast System (GFS) 0.25° by 0.25° forecast data for June, July, and August of 2019 is used to provide 6-hourly CAPE and precipitation rate, while Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) data for the period 2016 to 2020 is used to provide observed lightning strokes. A five-year lightning climatology study is conducted …

New York City Micronet : Comprehensive Site Metadata And Classifications And Characteristics Of The Urban Heat Island, Ashley Williamson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The New York City Micronet (NYC Micronet), comprised of 17 stations, was installed in the Fall of 2020 for the purpose of long-term monitoring of climate change, and to provide support to utility operations for Consolidated Edison, Inc. (Con Edison). There are five additional standard NYS Mesonet stations located in NYC installed in late 2017. Co-located at the standard stations are three flux, and three profiler stations from sub-networks within the NYS Mesonet. With 22 different locations collecting 5-minute averaged data, this network becomes the highest spatial and temporal resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of this quality in NYC. This …

Projections Of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns And Associated Temperature And Precipitation Over The Pacific Northwest Using Cmip6 Models, Graham Patrick Taylor

Dissertations and Theses

Projections of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) patterns over the Pacific Northwest of North America and their associated surface temperature, precipitation, and frequency of occurrence are assessed using models from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The self-organizing maps approach is applied to reanalysis data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version-2 (MERRA-2) to cluster daily Z500 anomalies into 12 representative patterns that span the range of historical circulation patterns. CMIP6 data for daily Z500 anomalies are mapped to each node for historical and end of century global warming experiments, and the resulting …

The Effect Of Initial Conditions On The Weather Research And Forecasting Model, Aaron D. Baker

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Modeling our atmosphere and determining forecasts using numerical methods has been a challenge since the early 20th Century. Most models use a complex dynamical system of equations that prove difficult to solve by hand as they are chaotic by nature. When computer systems became more widely adopted and available, approximating the solution of these equations, numerically, became easier as computational power increased. This advancement in computing has caused numerous weather models to be created and implemented across the world. However a challenge of approximating these solutions accurately still exists as each model have varying set of equations and variables to …

Examining Terrain Effects On Upstate New York Tornado Events Utilizing High-Resolution Model Simulations, Luke Lebel

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The region at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York is characterized by complex terrain. It has been hypothesized that this complex terrain may have an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has hypothesized that terrain-channeled flow in the Hudson and Mohawk valleys contributed to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during past severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of observations in the region prevented this hypothesis from being robustly tested.

The goal of this study is to further examine this hypothesis and complement …

A Method For Routine Pm2.5 Obsercation And Incorporation Into Numerical Weather Prediction, Daniel B. Jagoda

Theses and Dissertations

Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulates aerosol abundance using climatic emission inventories due to a lack of available real-time observation. An advocation to monitor aerosol number concentration with a standardized global sensor network is defended. A comparison between observations from the existing network “PurpleAir” and condensation particle counters (CPC) reveals the necessity of regulated instrumentation when measuring aerosol number concentration. NWP initialization by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module is capable of augmentation by hourly aerosol observation. The disparity between observed in-situ particulate matter smaller than 2.5-μm in diameter (PM_2.5) and Weather Research and Forecasting …

Connecting Local-Scale Heavy Precipitation To Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations And Climate Models, Christina Marie Aragon

Dissertations and Theses

Precipitation timing and magnitude is essential to human, ecological, and economic systems. Climate change may be altering the character of precipitation locally to globally, thus it is vital that resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers understand the nature of this change. This thesis was conducted in partnership with the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services (BES), and the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) in order to support resiliency planning around precipitation and precipitation extremes.

This work has two primary phases, which are discussed in chapter 2 and 3 of this thesis. The first phase of this research entails characterization of …

Design And Implementation Of The New York State Mesonet Flux Tower Network, Jason Michael Covert

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) was established in 2014 to provide high-quality real-time meteorological data for weather monitoring and forecasting, emergency management, and research aimed at improving numerical weather prediction. The mainstay of the network consists of 126 surface weather stations located throughout New York State with an average spacing of 30 km. In 2017, 17 of the sites (“flux” sites) were equipped with additional (permanent) instrumentation to measure short and long-wave radiation components, soil heat flux, and turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and carbon dioxide (CO2). The mesoscale resolution of the 17-site NYSM Flux Tower …

On The Frequency, Structure, And Characteristics Of Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses, Sarah Dunn Ditchek

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Taking 6-h IR brightness temperature differences, Dunion et al. (2014) found that in major hurricanes, an area of cold cloud tops routinely propagated radially outward from the storm core at around 5–10 m/s over the course of each day. They defined this feature as a “diurnal pulse” and created a 24-h conceptual clock that identified at which radius the coldest cloud tops would be located based on local time (LT). Due to the inherent predictability of these pulses, this dissertation was undertaken to gain a deeper understanding of their frequency, structure, and characteristics.

A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger

Theses and Dissertations

Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …

Evaluation Of A Cloud Detection Technique Using Spatial And Radiometric Thresholds For Near Infrared Satellite Imagery, William J. Graff

Theses and Dissertations

Knowledge of cloud location in near infrared (NIR) imagery is of interest to the meteorological community given the wavelengths greater spatial resolution compared to longwave infrared and its potential nighttime applications. This method consists of an algorithm that can be employed by multiple instrument platforms. It analyzes changes between satellite image radiances and a seasonal synthetic background radiance image. The NIR sensor bands of the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite instruments are used to evaluate the performance of a monochromatic change detection technique designed to locate areas …

Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …

Ldentifying And Characterizing Cognitive Factors Significant To Practicing And Learning Meteorology, Peggy M. Mcneal

Dissertations

To see the world as a meteorologist, one must understand and interpret atmospheric processes through representations depicted on two-dimensional weather charts and maps that encode large amounts of spatial and numerical data. This is a cognitively demanding and spatially challenging task, especially for students with burgeoning levels of meteorology knowledge, who lack the expertise of practiced meteorologists that read such charts and maps with ease. With little prior work informing meteorology and meteorology education through a cognitive science lens, this study surveys the literature and follows models of discipline-based education and cognitive science research to identify the discrete intelligence factors …

Investigating The Effects Of Ice-Forming Saharan Dust Aerosols On Tropical Deep Convection Using Spectral Bin Microphysics, Matthew Scott Gibbons

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Aerosol effects on cloud and precipitation formation remain a significant source of uncertainty in the study of weather and climate. Aerosols can impact cloud and precipitation formation by functioning as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN) and/or ice nuclei (IN) affecting subsequent cloud microphysical processes. Aerosol effects on clouds are tightly interconnected with cloud dynamic and thermodynamic variables, some of which are currently impossible or infeasible to observe with existing sensors. Numerical models can be used to untangle aerosols effects from cloud dynamics and thermodynamics, but model results can be affected by the complexity of the parameterizations …

Multiscale Wind Modelling For Sustainability And Resilience, Djordje Romanic

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The research presented herein is a mix of meteorological and wind engineering disciplines. In many cases, there is a gap between these two fields and this thesis is an attempt to bridge that gap through multiscale wind modelling approaches. Data and methods used in this study cover a multitude of spatial and temporal scales. Applications are in the fields of sustainability and resilience. This relationship between multiscale wind modelling and sustainability and resilience is investigated examining several case studies of three different developments: urban, rural and coastal.

An urban wind modelling methodology is proposed and applied for a specific development …

The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle, Jason Paul Dunion

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The research presented in this thesis explores a phenomenon referred to as the tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal cycle (TCDC) and presents satellite, numerical modeling, and observational perspectives pertaining to how it can be monitored, its evolution in time and space, its relevance to TC structure and intensity, and how it manifests in numerical simulations of TCs. Infrared satellite imagery was developed and used to investigate diurnal oscillations in TCs and finds a diurnal pulsing pattern that occurs with notable regularity through a relatively deep layer from the inner core to the surrounding environment. A combination of satellite, numerical model simulations, …

An Analysis Of High-Impact, Low-Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events In The Northeast U.S, Matthew Thomas Vaughan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980–2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm …

An Analysis Of Public Perception And Response To Hurricane Sandy, Lindsay L. Rice

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane Sandy made landfall in Brigantine, New Jersey on October 29th, 2012. The storm impacted the coastal regions of New Jersey and New York, especially the heavily populated area of New York City. This research, which analyzes secondary data obtained from a telephone survey, investigates the public response of residents before, during and after Hurricane Sandy. The survey consisted of questions regarding what the residents expected concerning the threat of Hurricane Sandy, whether it matched what they experienced, where they got their information and how they made their decision to evacuate or not. The results from the survey were statistically …

Ethical Ambivalence In Local Television Weathercasting: A Rossian Analysis, Vernon Keith Thompson

Masters Theses

Today’s television weathercasters are being called upon increasingly to go beyond benign weather prognostications to become the “newsroom experts” for science topics. The expectation to act as both scientists and journalists can cause ethical ambivalence (EA), a sociological condition in which, faced with conflicting norms, the subject feels that he/she is being pulled psychologically in two different directions (Jansen & Von Glinow, 1985). This thesis presents a Rossian analysis of climate change in weathercasting, a topic that captures the most important ethical tensions arising from conflicting duties within the weathercaster role, specifically: a) how might the duties of the television …

Synoptic And Mesoscale Aspects Of Ice Storms In The Northeastern U.S, Christopher Castellano

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Ice storms are among the most hazardous, disruptive, and costly meteorological phenomena in the northeastern United States. The accretion of freezing rain during ice storms endangers human safety, compromises public infrastructure, and causes economic losses on local and regional scales. Furthermore, ice storms present a major operational forecast challenge due to the combined influence of synoptic, mesoscale, and microphysical processes on precipitation type. In consideration of these socioeconomic impacts and forecast issues, we have identified three primary objectives for this thesis: 1) create long-term climatologies of freezing rain and ice storms in the northeastern U.S., 2) identify antecedent environments conducive …

Analysis Of Intraseasonal Convective Variability Modes Over West Africa During The Monsoon Season, Jeffrey Ceratto

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intraseasonal variability of rainfall within the West African Monsoon has been shown to be an important factor in the weather of this region. Multiple factors have been found to contribute to variability at this timescale. Mounier, et al (2008) use EOF analysis to uncover and describe a quasi-stationary dipole of precipitation between the West African Monsoon system and the West Atlantic/Caribbean Sea. This mode, termed the Quasi Biweekly Zonal Dipole mode, operates on timescales of roughly 13 days. The stationary nature of this dipole is focused upon in their work, while the role of Kelvin waves in the mode are …

Quantification Of The Effects Of Data Denial And Limitation In Mm5 Initialization On Forecast Accuracy, Robert W. Evans

Theses and Dissertations

The current hub-and-spoke network in the European Theater is made up of locations built and organized around a Cold War threat. The threat of large-scale attrition warfare seems to have passed, and the threat of multiple, smaller scale contingencies has placed greater demands on the US military's ability to transport equipment and personnel to multiple locations simultaneously. This research effort utilizes a Multiple Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to analyze optimal hub locations in USEUCOM. The model used to analyze the network was developed in Microsoft Excel and followed MOLP techniques to determine the trade-offs between the two constructs of …

Temperature Conditions At Orono, Maine, Ernest Claude Drew

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is an outgrowth of a much larger piece of work which the Department of Physics, thru its instructors and major students, has undertaken to complete. The task referred to, is the compilation, arrangement, and summarizing of the various meteorological records taken at the University of Maine for the past forty-four years. These records were begun in the above department by Dr. M. C. Fernald in the year 1869 and were continued by him until 1893. The work was then transferred to the Experiment Station, where observations were made under the direction of Doctors W. H. Jordan and C. …