Weather In Middle-Earth Or Tolkien: The Weather-Master?, Jonas Mertens

Journal of Tolkien Research

Abstract

This article attempts to shed light on the use of weather in general and meteorological expressions in The Lord of the Rings, as J. R. R. Tolkien is well known to be a writer for whom the environment and natural world is closely intertwined with his storytelling. Both a manual count and a count which a digital text analysis tool were combined to find the frequency of previously selected weather terms. In total, more than 2,000 references were found in the books, with the words ‘sun’, ‘wind’ and ‘cold’ being the most abundant. Meteorological expressions are frequently encountered in …

Protecting The Vulnerable: Tornado Sheltering And Communication Of Public Shelters With A Case Study From The Covid-19 Pandemic, Craig Douglas Croskery

Theses and Dissertations

One of the greatest natural hazards that is faced with in much of the United States are tornadoes. Despite improvements in the warning processes, the risk of significant loss of life remains high. That is particularly true with vulnerable communities which have higher proportions of mobile homes; however, violent tornadoes are very difficult to manage in permanent homes or buildings as well. As a result, tornado shelters have been built in some communities and have become available to the public. However, their presence is intermittent, and there are many tornado-prone areas that lack such shelters.

After a public survey, it …

Radar Signatures In Tropical Cyclone Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Michaela Wood

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Tropical cyclones (TCs) contain highly-sheared environments that are conducive for supercell thunderstorms. These TC supercells sometimes produce tornadoes, often with little warning. Given the often-close proximity of tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells, environments may not be well-distinguished, pointing to the potential value of radar observations. In this study, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of a sample of TC supercells are examined in the context of known supercell structure and microphysics. Tornadic and nontornadic TC supercells are compared with their midlatitude counterparts, and the environments and characteristic structure of these storms are shown to be notably different. An attempt is made to distinguish …

The Influence Of Complex Coastlines On The Sea Breeze And Convection Initiation In Coastal North Carolina, Logan Howard, Adam L. Houston

Honors Theses

The sea breeze is a common phenomenon in coastal regions around the world. Their development and propagation can be treated as a density current. It is well known that many factors influence density current propagation, including wind. Depending on the orientation, the wind speed and shear can enhance or inhibit the development of the sea breeze. In places like eastern North Carolina, complex coastal geography can create river and sound breezes that, upon collision, have the potential to initiate thunderstorms. Using Cloud Model 1, simulations were conducted to model the behavior of the sea breezes in eastern North Carolina and …

The Impact Of Sea-Level Rise In Numerically Modeled Landfalling Hurricanes: Katrina And The Gulf Coast., Serenity Nadirah Mercuri

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With climate change, landfalling hurricanes become an increasing threat to coastal regions. However, the interactions between the coastal landscape and landfalling hurricanes are often overlooked when addressing sea-level rise outside of inundation and independent of sea surface temperature. This study analyzed the potential impacts regarding structure and intensity as a result of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico using the WRF-ARW numerical model coupled with a 1D ocean model. Analysis showed that 10 m windspeed from landfall forward was higher in modified coastlines, and minimum sea-level pressure post-landfall was consistently lower for modified runs where storms maintain a higher …

Small-Scale Variability In Warm Season, Precipitation Around An Urban Area: A Case Study Of Louisville-Jefferson County, Ky., Isaiah I. Kingsberry

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Numerous studies have detected anomalous precipitation patterns occurring up to 50 km downwind of major cities, providing major evidence that cities inadvertently modify precipitation and atmospheric circulations. Louisville is one such major city with a growing body of evidence of inadvertent precipitation modification. Despite these efforts, the physical mechanisms driving small-scale and unintentional changes in urban precipitation are little understood, being rooted largely in theory rather than in physical observations. This study seeks to build upon previous research by analyzing ground-based precipitation observations recorded by a high-density gauge network located within approximately 40 km of Louisville’s urban center. The results …

Applications Of A Lightning Proxy To Generate Synthetic Lightning For Use In Physics-Based Image-Chain Models, Bryan G. Castro

Theses and Dissertations

A method of generating synthetic lightning through the use of a convective available potential energy (CAPE) times precipitation rate (P) proxy is applied over three distinct climatological zones of the world for a single warm season: central and southern AZ of the United States, central Cuba, and North Korea. Global Forecast System (GFS) 0.25° by 0.25° forecast data for June, July, and August of 2019 is used to provide 6-hourly CAPE and precipitation rate, while Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) data for the period 2016 to 2020 is used to provide observed lightning strokes. A five-year lightning climatology study is conducted …

High-Tide Floods And Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers On The Us West Coast, Christopher G. Piecuch, Sloan Coats, Sönke Dangendorf, Felix W. Landerer, J. T. Reager, Philip R. Thompson, Thomas Wahl

CCPO Publications

Amospheric rivers (ARs) effect inland hydrological impacts related to extreme precipitation. However, little is known about the possible coastal hazards associated with these storms. Here we elucidate high-tide floods (HTFs) and storm surges during ARs through a statistical analysis of data from the US West Coast during 1980-2016. HTFs and landfalling ARs co-occur more often than expected from random chance. Between 10%-63% of HTFs coincide with landfalling ARs, depending on location. However, only 2%-15% of ARs coincide with HTFs, suggesting that ARs typically must co-occur with anomalously high tides or mean sea levels to cause HTFs. Storm surges during ARs …

Projections Of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns And Associated Temperature And Precipitation Over The Pacific Northwest Using Cmip6 Models, Graham Patrick Taylor

Dissertations and Theses

Projections of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) patterns over the Pacific Northwest of North America and their associated surface temperature, precipitation, and frequency of occurrence are assessed using models from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The self-organizing maps approach is applied to reanalysis data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version-2 (MERRA-2) to cluster daily Z500 anomalies into 12 representative patterns that span the range of historical circulation patterns. CMIP6 data for daily Z500 anomalies are mapped to each node for historical and end of century global warming experiments, and the resulting …

The Effect Of Initial Conditions On The Weather Research And Forecasting Model, Aaron D. Baker

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Modeling our atmosphere and determining forecasts using numerical methods has been a challenge since the early 20th Century. Most models use a complex dynamical system of equations that prove difficult to solve by hand as they are chaotic by nature. When computer systems became more widely adopted and available, approximating the solution of these equations, numerically, became easier as computational power increased. This advancement in computing has caused numerous weather models to be created and implemented across the world. However a challenge of approximating these solutions accurately still exists as each model have varying set of equations and variables to …

A Question Of Scale: Making Meteorological Knowledge And Nation In Imperial Asia, Fiona Williamson, Vladimir Jankovic

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This special issue of History of Meteorology explores processes of making, communicating, and embedding modern meteorological knowledge in late nineteenth and early twentieth century imperial Asia. Its focus is on the institutionalisation of meteorology in key nation-building activities such as developing agricultural services, synoptic mapping to predict storms, and participation in scientific organisations and initiatives. Collectively, the essays explore the intersection of local, regional, and international scales and processes in generating new forms of state-sponsored meteorological practices and institutions, though complex multi-layered networks involving different actors and modes of information flow across multiple scales. In so doing, they reveal the …

Synergistic Use Of Remote Sensing And Modeling For Estimating Net Primary Productivity In The Red Sea With Vgpm, Eppley-Vgpm, And Cbpm Models Intercomparison, Wenzhao Li, Surya Prakash Tiwari, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Ali Qurban, Vassilis Amiridis, K. P. Manikandan, Michael J. Garay, Olga V. Kalashnikova, Thomas C. Piechota, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Primary productivity (PP) has been recently investigated using remote sensing-based models over quite limited geographical areas of the Red Sea. This work sheds light on how phytoplankton and primary production would react to the effects of global warming in the extreme environment of the Red Sea and, hence, illuminates how similar regions may behave in the context of climate variability. study focuses on using satellite observations to conduct an intercomparison of three net primary production (NPP) models--the vertically generalized production model (VGPM), the Eppley-VGPM, and the carbon-based production model (CbPM)--produced over the Red Sea domain for the 1998-2018 time period. …

Examining Terrain Effects On Upstate New York Tornado Events Utilizing High-Resolution Model Simulations, Luke Lebel

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The region at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York is characterized by complex terrain. It has been hypothesized that this complex terrain may have an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has hypothesized that terrain-channeled flow in the Hudson and Mohawk valleys contributed to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during past severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of observations in the region prevented this hypothesis from being robustly tested.

The goal of this study is to further examine this hypothesis and complement …

A Method For Routine Pm2.5 Obsercation And Incorporation Into Numerical Weather Prediction, Daniel B. Jagoda

Theses and Dissertations

Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulates aerosol abundance using climatic emission inventories due to a lack of available real-time observation. An advocation to monitor aerosol number concentration with a standardized global sensor network is defended. A comparison between observations from the existing network “PurpleAir” and condensation particle counters (CPC) reveals the necessity of regulated instrumentation when measuring aerosol number concentration. NWP initialization by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module is capable of augmentation by hourly aerosol observation. The disparity between observed in-situ particulate matter smaller than 2.5-μm in diameter (PM_2.5) and Weather Research and Forecasting …

Phenology Of Cupressaceae Urban Infrastructure Related To Its Pollen Content And Meteorological Variables, A. Monroy-Colín, J. M. Maya-Manzano, I. Silva-Palacios, R. Tormo-Molina, R. Pecero-Casimiro, Á. Gonzalo-Garijo, S. Fernández-Rodríguez

Articles

Cupressaceae pollen is one of the major airborne allergens of the Mediterranean region and in other regions around the world. Pollen production of these species causes considerable allergic problems during winter, being this type of pollen the most abundant in this period of the year. This work aims to relate phenology, meteorology and airborne pollen records in these species. Aerobiological sampling was carried out in Badajoz (SW Spain) from 2016 to 2018 using Hirst-type volumetric sampler. Pollination phenology was studied in 50 specimens, ten of Cupressus macrocarpa, ten of Cupressus arizonica, 15 of Cupressus sempervirens and 15 of …

An Investigation Into Weather's Effect On Aerosol Particles Using Wrf And Mapss, Hayden Webb, Devin Smoot

Student Research

Aerosols are solid or liquid particles suspended in air or gas. Many processes contribute to increased aerosol particles in the atmosphere, such as winds, ocean waves, and industrial exhaust. Once suspended, particles can be carried thousands of miles before being returned to the ground by gravity or rain. Some particles can be suspended for several years and travel all around the world, these particles have the greatest impact on climate and weather.

Connecting Local-Scale Heavy Precipitation To Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Over Portland, Oregon Using Observations And Climate Models, Christina Marie Aragon

Dissertations and Theses

Precipitation timing and magnitude is essential to human, ecological, and economic systems. Climate change may be altering the character of precipitation locally to globally, thus it is vital that resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers understand the nature of this change. This thesis was conducted in partnership with the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services (BES), and the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) in order to support resiliency planning around precipitation and precipitation extremes.

This work has two primary phases, which are discussed in chapter 2 and 3 of this thesis. The first phase of this research entails characterization of …

An Observational Study Of Winter Weather-Related Traffic Crashes In Nebraska, Jacob Petr

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The responsibilities of meteorologists have evolved over time from simply providing a forecast to needing to also understand how those predictions will impact society and then communicating those risks in a clear, concise, and consistent manner. Increased motor vehicle crash numbers due to adverse weather conditions represent one such impact worthy of further study. Snowfall, in particular, significantly increases the overall risk of a crash, which can result in extensive property damage, severe injuries, and even loss of life.This project seeks to supplement traffic crash information in Nebraska by assessing how snowfall impacts crashes across the state. Crash data were …

The Role Of Boundary-Parallel Vertical Wind Shear In Convection Initiation, Alexander J. Krull

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Convection initiation (CI) remains a forecasting challenge for meteorologists. CI frequently occurs within the vicinity of some airmass boundary or density current. Airmass boundaries are favored areas of convergence, thus associated forced ascent facilitates CI. Features such as misocyclones often develop along the leading edge of airmass boundaries, favoring updraft formation and prompting alterations to the horizontal and vertical flow near the boundary. Airmass boundary characteristics and CI potential have been found to be sensitive to the environmental vertical wind shear. This affects propagation speed, convergence, and thus forced ascent along the leading edge. Previous studies have focused primarily on …

Climate Change Impacts On Winter Wheat Yield In Northern China, Xiu Geng, Fang Wang, Wei Ren, Zhixin Hao

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A …

Using A Balloon-Launched Unmanned Glider To Validate Real-Time Wrf Modeling, Travis J. Schuyler, S. M. Iman Gohari, Gary Pundsack, Donald Berchoff, Marcelo I. Guzman

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for meteorological measurements has expanded significantly in recent years. SUAS are efficient platforms for collecting data with high resolution in both space and time, providing opportunities for enhanced atmospheric sampling. Furthermore, advances in mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) modeling and graphical processing unit (GPU) computing have enabled high resolution weather modeling. In this manuscript, a balloon-launched unmanned glider, complete with a suite of sensors to measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, is deployed for validation of real-time weather models. This work demonstrates the usefulness of sUAS for validating and improving …

Meteorological Comparison Of Three Cave Systems, Matthew Wine

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Cave systems are home to delicate underground ecosystems that can be affected by changes in surface atmospheric conditions which in turn affect underground meteorology. Modern human use of caves is typically for tourism, so understanding surface-underground weather-climate interactions is important when caves carry streams that are prone to flooding in response to surface precipitation. The purpose of this research is to document the effects of surface weather conditions on cave meteorology in three different cave system types located in different geographic locations including an island, the central USA, and at high elevations in British Columbia. The study caves include Kaumana …

Recent Trends In Stratospheric Chlorine From Very Short‐Lived Substances, Ryan Hossaini, Elliot Atlas, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Peter F. Bernath, Anton M. Fernando, Jens Mühle, Amber A. Leeson, Stephen A. Montzka, Wuhu Feng

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Very short‐lived substances (VSLS), including dichloromethane (CH₂Cl₂), chloroform (CHCl₃), perchloroethylene (C₂Cl₄), and 1,2‐dichloroethane (C₂H₄Cl₂), are a stratospheric chlorine source and therefore contribute to ozone depletion. We quantify stratospheric chlorine trends from these VSLS (VSLCl_tot) using a chemical transport model and atmospheric measurements, including novel high‐altitude aircraft data from the NASA VIRGAS (2015) and POSIDON (2016) missions. We estimate VSLCl_tot increased from 69 (±14) parts per trillion (ppt) Cl in 2000 to 111 (±22) ppt Cl in 2017, with >80% delivered to …

A Climatology Of Convective And Non-Convective High-Wind Events Across The Eastern United States During 1973-2015, Victoria Murley

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

High-wind events (HWE) occur across every region of the United States (U.S.) and result in hundreds of fatalities, as well as thousands of dollars in damages annually. HWEs are classified as sustained high-winds or high-wind gusts and can be generated from convective or non-convective weather systems. This study investigates high-wind observations across the eastern U.S. during a 43-year climatological period (1973-2015) for spatial and temporal variations in wind speed and direction. Hourly surface wind observations were gathered from the National Centers for Environmental Information Data Center Integrated Surface Database (NCEI-ISD). This dataset includes qualitycontrolled wind observations from 391 first-order weather …

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Theses

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger

Theses and Dissertations

Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …

Evaluation Of A Cloud Detection Technique Using Spatial And Radiometric Thresholds For Near Infrared Satellite Imagery, William J. Graff

Theses and Dissertations

Knowledge of cloud location in near infrared (NIR) imagery is of interest to the meteorological community given the wavelengths greater spatial resolution compared to longwave infrared and its potential nighttime applications. This method consists of an algorithm that can be employed by multiple instrument platforms. It analyzes changes between satellite image radiances and a seasonal synthetic background radiance image. The NIR sensor bands of the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite instruments are used to evaluate the performance of a monochromatic change detection technique designed to locate areas …

Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …

Impact Of Past Experiences With Tornadoes On Future Decisions In Nebraska, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE Research Products

The National Weather Service (NWS) advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is to determine how the number of sources and what …

Ldentifying And Characterizing Cognitive Factors Significant To Practicing And Learning Meteorology, Peggy M. Mcneal

Dissertations

To see the world as a meteorologist, one must understand and interpret atmospheric processes through representations depicted on two-dimensional weather charts and maps that encode large amounts of spatial and numerical data. This is a cognitively demanding and spatially challenging task, especially for students with burgeoning levels of meteorology knowledge, who lack the expertise of practiced meteorologists that read such charts and maps with ease. With little prior work informing meteorology and meteorology education through a cognitive science lens, this study surveys the literature and follows models of discipline-based education and cognitive science research to identify the discrete intelligence factors …