Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Operational forecasters face a plethora of challenges when making a forecast; they must consider multiple data sources ranging from radar and satellites to surface and upper air observations, to numerical weather prediction output. Forecasts must be done in a limited window of time, which adds an additional layer of difficulty to the task. These challenges are exacerbated by winter mixed precipitation events where slight differences in thermodynamic profiles or changes in terrain create different precipitation types across small areas. In addition to being difficult to forecast, mixed precipitation events can have large-scale impacts on our society.

New York City Micronet : Comprehensive Site Metadata And Classifications And Characteristics Of The Urban Heat Island, Ashley Williamson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The New York City Micronet (NYC Micronet), comprised of 17 stations, was installed in the Fall of 2020 for the purpose of long-term monitoring of climate change, and to provide support to utility operations for Consolidated Edison, Inc. (Con Edison). There are five additional standard NYS Mesonet stations located in NYC installed in late 2017. Co-located at the standard stations are three flux, and three profiler stations from sub-networks within the NYS Mesonet. With 22 different locations collecting 5-minute averaged data, this network becomes the highest spatial and temporal resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of this quality in NYC. This …

Examining Terrain Effects On Upstate New York Tornado Events Utilizing High-Resolution Model Simulations, Luke Lebel

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The region at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York is characterized by complex terrain. It has been hypothesized that this complex terrain may have an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has hypothesized that terrain-channeled flow in the Hudson and Mohawk valleys contributed to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during past severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of observations in the region prevented this hypothesis from being robustly tested.

The goal of this study is to further examine this hypothesis and complement …

Design And Implementation Of The New York State Mesonet Flux Tower Network, Jason Michael Covert

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) was established in 2014 to provide high-quality real-time meteorological data for weather monitoring and forecasting, emergency management, and research aimed at improving numerical weather prediction. The mainstay of the network consists of 126 surface weather stations located throughout New York State with an average spacing of 30 km. In 2017, 17 of the sites (“flux” sites) were equipped with additional (permanent) instrumentation to measure short and long-wave radiation components, soil heat flux, and turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and carbon dioxide (CO2). The mesoscale resolution of the 17-site NYSM Flux Tower …

On The Frequency, Structure, And Characteristics Of Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses, Sarah Dunn Ditchek

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Taking 6-h IR brightness temperature differences, Dunion et al. (2014) found that in major hurricanes, an area of cold cloud tops routinely propagated radially outward from the storm core at around 5–10 m/s over the course of each day. They defined this feature as a “diurnal pulse” and created a 24-h conceptual clock that identified at which radius the coldest cloud tops would be located based on local time (LT). Due to the inherent predictability of these pulses, this dissertation was undertaken to gain a deeper understanding of their frequency, structure, and characteristics.

Investigating The Effects Of Ice-Forming Saharan Dust Aerosols On Tropical Deep Convection Using Spectral Bin Microphysics, Matthew Scott Gibbons

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Aerosol effects on cloud and precipitation formation remain a significant source of uncertainty in the study of weather and climate. Aerosols can impact cloud and precipitation formation by functioning as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN) and/or ice nuclei (IN) affecting subsequent cloud microphysical processes. Aerosol effects on clouds are tightly interconnected with cloud dynamic and thermodynamic variables, some of which are currently impossible or infeasible to observe with existing sensors. Numerical models can be used to untangle aerosols effects from cloud dynamics and thermodynamics, but model results can be affected by the complexity of the parameterizations …

The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle, Jason Paul Dunion

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The research presented in this thesis explores a phenomenon referred to as the tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal cycle (TCDC) and presents satellite, numerical modeling, and observational perspectives pertaining to how it can be monitored, its evolution in time and space, its relevance to TC structure and intensity, and how it manifests in numerical simulations of TCs. Infrared satellite imagery was developed and used to investigate diurnal oscillations in TCs and finds a diurnal pulsing pattern that occurs with notable regularity through a relatively deep layer from the inner core to the surrounding environment. A combination of satellite, numerical model simulations, …

An Analysis Of High-Impact, Low-Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events In The Northeast U.S, Matthew Thomas Vaughan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980–2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm …

Synoptic And Mesoscale Aspects Of Ice Storms In The Northeastern U.S, Christopher Castellano

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Ice storms are among the most hazardous, disruptive, and costly meteorological phenomena in the northeastern United States. The accretion of freezing rain during ice storms endangers human safety, compromises public infrastructure, and causes economic losses on local and regional scales. Furthermore, ice storms present a major operational forecast challenge due to the combined influence of synoptic, mesoscale, and microphysical processes on precipitation type. In consideration of these socioeconomic impacts and forecast issues, we have identified three primary objectives for this thesis: 1) create long-term climatologies of freezing rain and ice storms in the northeastern U.S., 2) identify antecedent environments conducive …

Analysis Of Intraseasonal Convective Variability Modes Over West Africa During The Monsoon Season, Jeffrey Ceratto

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intraseasonal variability of rainfall within the West African Monsoon has been shown to be an important factor in the weather of this region. Multiple factors have been found to contribute to variability at this timescale. Mounier, et al (2008) use EOF analysis to uncover and describe a quasi-stationary dipole of precipitation between the West African Monsoon system and the West Atlantic/Caribbean Sea. This mode, termed the Quasi Biweekly Zonal Dipole mode, operates on timescales of roughly 13 days. The stationary nature of this dipole is focused upon in their work, while the role of Kelvin waves in the mode are …