Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Influence Of Land Use And Climate Change On Forest Biomass And Composition In Massachusetts, Usa, J. R. Thompson, D. R. Foster, R. Scheller, David B. Kittredge

David B. Kittredge

Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 …

Community And Stakeholder Consultation For The Lake Macquarie Waterway Flood Management Plan (Report), Neil Dufty

Neil Dufty

No abstract provided.

Recent Advances In The Climate Change Biology Literature: Describing The Whole Elephant, A. Townsend Peterson, Shaily Menon, Xingong Li

Shaily Menon

Climate change biology is seeing a wave of new contributions, which are reviewed herein. Contributions treat shifts in phenology and distribution, and both document past and forecast future effects. However, many of the current wave of contributions are observational and correlational, and few are experimental in nature, and too often a conceptual framework in which to contextualize the results is lacking. An additional gap is the lack of effective cross-linking among areas of research, for example, connection of sea-level rise and climate change implications for distributions of species, or evolutionary adaptation studies with distributional shift studies. Although numerous important contributions …

Local Surface Water Policy Under Conditions Of Climate Change, Elizabeth Brabec, Elisabeth Hamin, Chingwen Cheng

Elizabeth Brabec

Climate change means two things for local stormwater managers – that storm events will become more severe, and rainfall will, in many instances, become more erratic, causing enhanced periods of drought and flood. Two approaches are needed to deal with the eventualities: mitigation and adaptation.

While urbanization increases stormwater runoff and decreases the lag time of stormwater discharge, there is also a resulting lack of infiltration and reduction in evapotranspiration (Brunke and Gonser 1997). Stormwater detention, retention and infiltration have attempted to compensate, resulting in the concentrated point location infiltration of stormwater, which replenishes groundwater and baseflow. Equally important to …

Preliminary Global Assessment Of Terrestrial Biodiversity Consequences Of Sea-Level Rise Mediated By Climate Change, Shaily Menon, Jorge Soberon, Xingong Li, A. Townsend Peterson

Shaily Menon

Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity, but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated effects of sea-level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine intrusion under scenarios of 1 and 6 m sea-level rise, we calculated areal losses for all terrestrial ecoregions globally, with areal losses for particular ecoregions ranging from nil to complete. Marine intrusion is a global phenomenon, but its effects are most prominent in Southeast Asia and nearby islands, eastern North America, northeastern South America, and western Alaska. Making assumptions regarding faunal responses to reduced …

Lost In Translation? A Boundary Work Perspective On Making Climate Change Governable, Robert Hoppe

Robert Hoppe

No abstract provided.

Recent Unprecedented Tree-Ring Growth In Bristlecone Pine At The Highest Elevations And Possible Causes, Matthew W. Salzer, Malcolm K. Hughes, Andrew G. Bunn, Kurt F. Kipfmueller

Andrew G. Bunn

Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) at 3 sites in western North America near the upper elevation limit of tree growth showed ring growth in the second half of the 20th century that was greater than during any other 50-year period in the last 3,700 years. The accelerated growth is suggestive of an environmental change unprecedented in millennia. The high growth is not overestimated because of standardization techniques, and it is unlikely that it is a result of a change in tree growth form or that it is predominantly caused by CO2 fertilization. The growth surge has occurred only in …

Review Essay: Disagreeing About The Climate, Donald Nordberg

Donald Nordberg

This paper is an early draft of a review essay that subsequently appeared in the journal Business and Society in 2010. The science concerning climate change is clear, both sides of the argument agree. What they don't agree about is what that clarity means. Each side considers the matter settled, and their points of view unsettle each attempt to make public policy. Mike Hulme, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, thinks the reasons for the persistent differences lies in the complex ways we see and use climate change as a totem …

Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its updated, Fourth Assessment Report, forecasts. The Report was commissioned at great cost in order to provide policy recommendations to governments. It included predictions of dramatic and harmful increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked, are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is "no." To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one …

Adaptation And Sustainability In A Small Arctic Community: Results Of An Agent-Based Simulation Model, Matthew Berman, Craig Nicolson, Gary Kofinas, Joe Tetlichi, Stephanie Martin

Craig Nicolson

Climate warming and resource development could alter key Arctic ecosystem functions that support fish and wildlife resources harvested by local indigenous communities. A different set of global forces—government policies and tourism markets—increasingly directs local cash economies that communities use to support subsistence activities. Agent-based computational models (ABMs) contribute to an integrated assessment of community sustainability by simulating how people interact with each other and adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions. Relying on research and local knowledge to provide rules and parameters for individual and collective decision making, our ABM generates hypothetical social histories as adaptations to scenario-driven changes in …

A Buried Spruce Forest Provides Evidence At The Stand And Landscape Scale For The Effects Of Environment On Vegetation At The Pleistocene/Holocene Boundary, Douglas D. Stokke

Douglas D. Stokke

Due to a unique set of circumstances, we were able to excavate an entire spruce (Picea) forest in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, USA, which was buried in the early Holocene (9928 ± 133 uncalibrated 14C years bp). Trees ranged from < 5 cm to > 50 cm in diameter, and dominants were approximately 9 m tall. The stand was multi-aged, with a maximum tree age of 145 years. Well-preserved stem cross-sections (n = 140) were recovered and the entire stand was mapped. Stand reconstruction combined with pollen and sediment analysis revealed a pure spruce forest in the sandy lowlands surrounded by hills dominated by pine, oak …