Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Demand Response In The Day-Ahead Operation Of An Isolated Microgrid In The Presence Of Uncertainty Of Wind Power, Javad Olamaei, Saleh Ashouri

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

This paper explores the utilization of demand response in the day-ahead operation of an isolated microgrid in the presence of wind units. The operation of the network with high penetration wind units (i.e. uncertainty of wind units) is modeled as a unit commitment problem. In addition, electrical power storage is modeled in a daily power curve to decrease the effect of uncertainty in the wind units. Due to avoiding large-scale complexities and the deeper study effect of demand-side management on operations, the considered network is regarded as an isolated microgrid. The demand-side management is studied as demand shifting. The simulation …

Verification And Validation Of A Transient Heat Exchanger Model, Jayme Lee Carper

Browse all Theses and Dissertations

A statistical based verification and validation process is applied to the transient modeling of a shell and tube heat exchanger. A generic model of a heat exchanger was developed based on first principles as a sub-system of a larger thermal system model. This model was originally created without any experimental data, as it was not readily available. To provide the data necessary to apply the validation process, a thermal emulator was designed and built that allowed control of all system inputs to the heat exchanger, while also providing the instrumentation to record all required data. A wide test matrix was …

Optimization Of Grid Connected Micro-Grid Consisting Of Pv/Fc/Uc With Considered Frequency Control, Hamid Hasanzadehfard, Masoud Moghaddas-Tafreshi, Sayed Mehdi Hakimi

Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

In this paper, ultracapacitors are used as short-term storages for the frequency control of grid-connected microgrid that consists of photovoltaic panels, fuel cells, and the battery packs as long-term storages. Fuel cells and battery packs have delays in load tracking; therefore, ultracapacitors are used to compensate for the sudden power fluctuations in the microgrid that occur due to the output power uncertainty of the PV arrays and the loads required in the microgrid, as well as the sudden interruption of the main grid. The microgrid consists of interruptible and uninterruptible loads. When the total produced power in the microgrid, in …

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Shih-Fen CHENG

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving …

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time …

Applications Of Bayesian Statistics In Fluvial Bed Load Transport, Mark L. Schmelter

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The science of fluvial sediment transport studies the processes involved in the movement of river sediments. It is commonly understood that when rivers flood they have a great capacity to move sand, gravel, and even larger cobbles and boulders. This process is not only limited to the big floods that usually attract so much attention, but also the more common river flows play a very important role in forming a river. As engineers and scientists, we like to be able to develop equations and relationships that describe some natural phenomenon—in this case, fluvial sediment transport. While we are able to …

Developing A Group Decision Support System (Gdss) For Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Soroush Mokhtari

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems are often associated with tradeoffs between performances of the available alternative solutions under decision making criteria. These problems become more complex when performances are associated with uncertainty. This study proposes a stochastic MCDM procedure that can handle uncertainty in MCDM problems. The proposed method coverts a stochastic MCDM problem into many deterministic ones through a Monte-Carlo (MC) selection. Each deterministic problem is then solved using a range of MCDM methods and the ranking order of the alternatives is established for each deterministic MCDM. The final ranking of the alternatives can be determined based on winning …

Small Town Water Governance In Developing Countries: The Uncertainty Curse, Magnus Moglia, Pascal Perez, Stewart Burn

Professor Pascal Perez

lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory …

Temporal Data Mining Of Uncertain Water Reservoir Data, Abhinaya Mohan, Peter Revesz

CSE Conference and Workshop Papers

This paper describes the challenges of data mining uncertain water reservoir data based on past human operations in order to learn from them reservoir policies that can be automated for the future operation of the water reservoirs. Records of human operations of water reservoirs often contain uncertain data. For example, the recorded amounts of water released and retained in the water reservoirs are typically uncertain, i.e., they are bounded by some minimum and maximum values. Moreover, the time of release is also uncertain, i.e., typically only monthly or weekly amounts are recorded. To increase the effectiveness of data mining of …

Stochastic Dominance In Stochastic Dcops For Risk-Sensitive Applications, Nguyen Duc Thien, William Yeoh, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOPs) are well-suited for modeling multi-agent coordination problems where the primary interactions are between local subsets of agents. However, one limitation of DCOPs is the assumption that the constraint rewards are without uncertainty. Researchers have thus extended DCOPs to Stochastic DCOPs (SDCOPs), where rewards are sampled from known probability distribution reward functions, and introduced algorithms to find solutions with the largest expected reward. Unfortunately, such a solution might be very risky, that is, very likely to result in a poor reward. Thus, in this paper, we make three contributions: (1) we propose a stricter objective for …

Prioritized Shaping Of Models For Solving Dec-Pomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, William Yeoh, Prasanna Velagapudi, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

An interesting class of multi-agent POMDP planning problems can be solved by having agents iteratively solve individual POMDPs, find interactions with other individual plans, shape their transition and reward functions to encourage good interactions and discourage bad ones and then recompute a new plan. D-TREMOR showed that this approach can allow distributed planning for hundreds of agents. However, the quality and speed of the planning process depends on the prioritization scheme used. Lower priority agents shape their models with respect to the models of higher priority agents. In this paper, we introduce a new prioritization scheme that is guaranteed to …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Adaptive Decision Support For Structured Organizations: A Case For Orgpomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Nathan Schurr, Alan Carlin, Christopher Amato

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In today's world, organizations are faced with increasingly large and complex problems that require decision-making under uncertainty. Current methods for optimizing such decisions fall short of handling the problem scale and time constraints. We argue that this is due to existing methods not exploiting the inherent structure of the organizations which solve these problems. We propose a new model called the OrgPOMDP (Organizational POMDP), which is based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). This new model combines two powerful representations for modeling large scale problems: hierarchical modeling and factored representations. In this paper we make three key contributions: …

Distributed Model Shaping For Scaling To Decentralized Pomdps With Hundreds Of Agents, Prasanna Velagapudi, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Katia Sycara, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The use of distributed POMDPs for cooperative teams has been severely limited by the incredibly large joint policy- space that results from combining the policy-spaces of the individual agents. However, much of the computational cost of exploring the entire joint policy space can be avoided by observing that in many domains important interactions between agents occur in a relatively small set of scenarios, previously defined as coordination locales (CLs) [11]. Moreover, even when numerous interactions might occur, given a set of individual policies there are relatively few actual interactions. Exploiting this observation and building on an existing model shaping algorithm, …

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving …

Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study, Ole J. Mengshoel, Mark Chavira, Keith Cascio, Adnan Darwiche, Scott Poll, Serdar Uckun

Ole J Mengshoel

We present in this paper a case study of the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis. Here, the diagnosed system is a real-world electrical power system (EPS), i.e., the Advanced Diagnstic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. Our probabilistic approach is formally well founded and based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and arithmetic circuits (ACs). We pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies: model development and real-time reasoning. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing EPSs as BNs, …

Slides: The Peril Of Energy Usage, Mike Tupper

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Mike Tupper, Executive Vice President, Composite Technology Development, Inc.

9 slides

Slides: Energy Development Water Needs Assessment And Water Supply Alternatives And Analysis, Benjamin Harding

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Benjamin Harding, Principal Engineer, AMEC Earth and Environmental

15 slides

Font Size: Make Font Size Smaller Make Font Size Default Make Font Size Larger Exploiting Coordination Locales In Distributed Pomdps Via Social Model Shaping, Pradeep Varakantham, Jun Young Kwak, Matthew Taylor, Janusz Marecki, Paul Scerri, Milind Tambe

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Distributed POMDPs provide an expressive framework for modeling multiagent collaboration problems, but NEXPComplete complexity hinders their scalability and application in real-world domains. This paper introduces a subclass of distributed POMDPs, and TREMOR, an algorithm to solve such distributed POMDPs. The primary novelty of TREMOR is that agents plan individually with a single agent POMDP solver and use social model shaping to implicitly coordinate with other agents. Experiments demonstrate that TREMOR can provide solutions orders of magnitude faster than existing algorithms while achieving comparable, or even superior, solution quality.

Artificial Intelligence – I: Subjective Decision Making Using Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Advisor, Owais Malik

International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies

In this paper, we present and compare two-stage type-2 fuzzy logic advisor (FLA) for subjective decision making in the domain of students' performance evaluation. We test our proposed model for evaluating students' performance in our computer science and engineering department at HBCC/KFUPM in two domains namely cooperating training and capstone/senior project assessment where we find these FLAs very useful and promising. In our proposed model, the assessment criteria for different components of cooperative training and senior project are transformed into linguistic labels and evaluation information is extracted into the form of IF-THEN rules from the experts. These rules are modeled …

Slides: Indian Water Rights, Robert T. Anderson

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Robert T. Anderson, Native American Law Center, University of Washington Law School

19 slides

Slides: Groundwater Declines, Climate Change And Approaches To Adaptation, Katharine Jacobs

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Katharine Jacobs, Director of the Arizona Water Institute, University of Arizona

37 slides

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time …

Effect Of Parameter Distributions On Uncertainty Analysis Of Hydrologic Models, C. Thomas Haan, Daniel E. Storm, T. Al-Issa, Sandeep Prabhu, George J. Sabbagh, Dwayne R. Edwards

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

Increasing concern about the accuracy of hydrologic and water quality models has prompted interest in procedures for evaluating the uncertainty associated with these models. If a Monte Carlo simulation is used in an uncertainty analysis, assumptions must be made relative to the probability distributions to assign to the model input parameters. Some have indicated that since these parameters can not be readily determined, uncertainty analysis is of limited value. In this article we have evaluated the impact of parameter distribution assumptions on estimates of model output uncertainty. We conclude that good estimates of the means and variances of the input …

Ground-Water Modeling Issues In Ground-Water Development: Types Of Models/Choosing The Right Model, Paul K.M. Van Der Heijde

Uncovering the Hidden Resource: Groundwater Law, Hydrology, and Policy in the 1990s (Summer Conference, June 15-17)

26 pages.

Contains 3 pages of references.

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"