Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Characterizing Climatic Socio-Environmental Tipping Points In Coastal Communities: A Conceptual Framework For Research And Practice, Julie Elizabeth Shortridge, Anamaria Bukvic, Molly Mitchell, Jesse Goldstein, Tom Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The concept of climate tipping points in socio-environmental systems is increasingly being used to describe nonlinear climate change impacts and encourage social transformations in response to climate change. However, the processes that lead to these tipping points and their impacts are highly complex and deeply uncertain. This is due to numerous interacting environmental and societal system components, constant system evolution, and uncertainty in the relationships between events and their consequences. In the face of this complexity and uncertainty, this research presents a conceptual framework that describes systemic processes that could lead to tipping points socio-environmental systems, with a focus on …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

Simulation Analysis Of Assessment Method For Missile Accuracy, Shuqing Li, Zhili Zhang, Yumiao Wei, Haitao Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The missile accuracy of the falling points is one of the important performance indexes of missile systems, so the assessment method is very important. An improved algorithm for missile accuracy assessment is proposed. Accuracy assessment problem is simplified as a hypothesis check for probability circle, and the accuracy difference coefficients are defined to describe the accuracy difference between the real falling points and the expected situation. Based on the probability circle method, an improved risk assessment method is put forward to balance and minimize producer's risk and consumer's risk. According to sequential check method, this risk assessment …

Key Risk Factors Influencing Harbor Tugboat Operations For Kaohsiung Port, Wen-Jui Tseng, Ji-Feng Ding, Chia-Ming Liu, Liou-Yuan Li

Journal of Marine Science and Technology

The harbor tugboat operation is a very important business and process of Kaohsiung port. To ensure the safety of harbor tugboat operations and to reduce the occurrence of accidents, it is an important issue to conduct a risk assessment of tugboat operations for Kaohsiung port. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is employ the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to evaluate key risk factors influencing the harbor tugboat operations for Kaohsiung port. At first, a total of three evalu-ation dimensions with 14 preliminary risk factors are gener-ated from literature and interviews of tugboat captains. We then applied the steps …

Attribute Reduction Algorithm On Balancing Profit And Risk, Dexing Wang, Jielong Xu, Hongchun Yuan

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Usually it is taken for granted to achieve the maximal profit at the cost of the minimal risk. It is an important problem of how to balance profit and risk, considering introducing profit and risk to attribute reduction so as to find practical algorithms in decision-making process. A decision-theoretic model was built, which could balance profit and risk combining with decision-theoretic rough set model and minimum risk of Bayes decision and find optimal combinations of risk in a certain level of expected profit, then a heuristic algorithm of attribute reduction was proposed, which took the function of balancing …

Climate Change And Market-Based Insurance Feedbacks, Eric R. Holley, Adam Liska, Cory Walters, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Michael Hayes, Max J. Rudolph, Donald A. Wilhite

Adam Liska Papers

Climatic events have accounted for 91% of $1.05 trillion in insured costs for global catastrophic events from 1980 to 2016. Costs are driven by socio-economic development and increased frequency and severity of climatic disasters driven by climate change. Government policies to reduce systemic risk (e.g., cap-and-trade, carbon tax) have been a predominant approach for mitigation and adaptation. Alternatively, market-based incentives for climate change adaptation and mitigation already operate via the insurance industry to lessen impacts on society. Insurance feedbacks include changes in 1) premiums and insurance policies, 2) non-coverage, and 3) policy making and litigation. Alongside government policies, insurance feedbacks …

Cyber Risk Assessment And Scoring Model For Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Dillon M. Pettit

Theses and Dissertations

The commercial-off-the-shelf small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market is expanding rapidly in response to interest from hobbyists, commercial businesses, and military operators. The core commercial mission set directly relates to many current military requirements and strategies, with a priority on short range, low cost, real time aerial imaging, and limited modular payloads. These small vehicles present small radar cross sections, low heat signatures, and carry a variety of sensors and payloads. As with many new technologies, security seems secondary to the goal of reaching the market as soon as innovation is viable. Research indicates a growth in exploits and vulnerabilities …

On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper we explore an issue that is different from whether developers are responsible for the direct impact of the software they write. We examine, instead, in what ways, and to what degree, developers are responsible for the way their software is used “downstream.” We review some key scholarship analyzing responsibility in computing ethics, including some recent work by Floridi. We use an adaptation of a mechanism developed by Floridi to argue that there are features of software that can be used as guides to better distinguish situations where a software developer might share in responsibility for the software’s …

Real-Time Pricing Strategy Considering The Risk Of Smart Grid, Hongbo Zhu, Gao Yan, Yeming Dai

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The real-time electricity price mechanism is an ideal method to adjust the power balance between supply and demand in smart grid. Its implementation has profound impacts on the users' behavior and the operation and management of electricity power grid’s safety. The users’ demand behavior plays a regulatory role in designing real-time electricity pricing strategy. Aiming at maximizing social welfare, the dynamic change of users’ aggregate demand is analyzed, which corrects the electricity risk items in online real-time risk model in the way of changing the individual user’s power fluctuations to all the users’ demand power fluctuations, and the optimization …

Managing Risks Of Market Price Uncertainty For A Microgrid Operation, Sriram Raghavan

Masters Theses

"After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure …

A Risk Assessment Of The Impacts Of Coastal Flooding And Sea Level Rise On The Existing And New Pump Stations 113, Norfolk, Va, David A. Pezza

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The author assessed the risk to a wastewater pump station and a planned replacement located nearby due to coastal flooding and rising sea levels. The locations for the pump stations are in the Larchmont neighborhood by the Lafayette River tidal estuaries in Norfolk, Virginia. The Lafayette River is a tributary to the Elizabeth River, which flows to the Chesapeake Bay. The low-lying areas along the river are subject to coastal surges caused by tropical and extra-tropical storms that flood the bay.

The region is considered one of the urban areas most exposed to the accelerating rate of rising sea levels. …

A Case Study Of Changing Cropping Diversity And Agricultural Risk In The Doulthabad Mandal Of Telangana State In India, Srikanth Kondabolu

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Doulthabad^[1] Mandal is a hot semi-arid agro-ecological sub-region (Rao et al. 2006) located in Mahbubnagar District on the North Telangana Plateau in the state of Telangana. Agriculture is the main occupation in this region, which is populated mostly with small and marginal farmers. This study uses the time period from 1971 to 2004 to study the variation in cropping pattern diversity and distribution of rainfall during the monsoons and understand the implications on production risk in agriculture. Quantitative methods were used in determining the changes in rainfall while qualitative methods were used to study cropping system changes. The …

Multi-Stakeholder Case Prioritization In Digital Investigations, Joshua I. James

Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law

This work examines the problem of case prioritization in digital investigations for better utilization of limited criminal investigation resources. Current methods of case prioritization, as well as observed prioritization methods used in digital forensic investigation laboratories are examined. After, a multi-stakeholder approach to case prioritization is given that may help reduce reputational risk to digital forensic laboratories while improving resource allocation. A survey is given that shows differing opinions of investigation priority between Law Enforcement and the public that is used in the development of a prioritization model. Finally, an example case is given to demonstrate the practicality of the …

Towards A Conceptual Model Of User Acceptance Of Location-Based Emergency Services, Anas Aloudat, Katina Michael

Professor Katina Michael

This paper investigates the introduction of location-based services by government as part of an all-hazards approach to modern emergency management solutions. Its main contribution is in exploring the determinants of an individual’s acceptance or rejection of location services. The authors put forward a conceptual model to better predict why an individual would accept or reject such services, especially with respect to emergencies. While it may be posited by government agencies that individuals would unanimously wish to accept life-saving and life-sustaining location services for their well-being, this view remains untested. The theorised determinants include: visibility of the service solution, perceived service …

The Future Prospects Of Embedded Microchips In Humans As Unique Identifiers: The Risks Versus The Rewards, Katina Michael, M.G. Michael

Professor Katina Michael

Microchip implants for humans are not new. Placing heart pacemakers in humans for prosthesis is now considered a straightforward procedure. In more recent times we have begun to use brain pacemakers for therapeutic purposes to combat illnesses such as epilepsy, Parkinson’s Disease, and severe depression. Microchips are even being placed inside prosthetic knees and hips during restorative procedures to help in the gathering of post-operative analytics that can aid rehabilitation further. While medical innovations that utilise microchips abound, over the last decade we have begun to see the potential use of microchip implants for non-medical devices in humans, namely for …

Slides: Envirofit: Making The World Fit For Humanity, Jessica Alderman

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Presenter: Jessica Alderman, Director, ENVIROFIT

15 slides

Book Review: The Basics Of Information Security: Understanding The Fundamentals Of Infosec In Theory And Practice, Katina Michael

Professor Katina Michael

Dr Jason Andress (ISSAP, CISSP, GPEN, CEH) has written a timely book on Information Security. Andress who is a seasoned security professional with experience in both the academic and business worlds, categorically demonstrates through his book that underlying the operation of any successful business today is how to protect your most valuable asset- “information”. Andress completed his doctorate in computer science in the area of data protection, and presently works for a major software company, providing global information security oversight and performing penetration testing and risks assessment.

Slides: The Costs And Benefits Of Best Management Practices: Insights From The Marcellus Shale, Timothy J. Considine

Best Management Practices (BMPs): What? How? And Why? (May 26)

Presenter: Timothy J. Considine, School of Energy Resources, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming

15 slides

Alphaco: A Teaching Case On Information Technology Audit And Security, Hüseyin Tanriverdi, Joshua Bertsch, Jonathan Harrison, Po-Ling Hsiao, Ketan S. Mesuria, David Hendrawirawan

Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law

Recent regulations in the United States (U.S.) such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 require top management of a public firm to provide reasonable assurance that they institute internal controls that minimize risks over the firm’s operations and financial reporting. External auditors are required to attest to the management’s assertions over the effectiveness of those internal controls. As firms rely more on information technology (IT) in conducting business, they also become more vulnerable to IT related risks. IT is critical for initiating, recording, processing, summarizing and reporting accurate financial and non-financial data. Thus, understanding IT related risks and instituting internal …

The Decision To Reactivate A First-Generation Soviet Nuclear Power Plant: Conceptual And Decision-Analytic Frameworks, John M. Gleason

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Explores a variety of factors that led to reopening the Armenian Metsamor facility notwithstanding general agreement that this is unwarranted technologically.

Academy Recommendations On The Proposed Yucca Mountain Waste Repository: Overview And Criticisms, Kristin S. Shrader-Frechette

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Offers alternative criticism of the NAS report.

Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Thompson responds to Valverde's argument, in the last issue, that his approach to Risk puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism. In doing so, he asserts, inter alia, that anchoring Risk judgments in a probabilistic framework does not go far enough in rejecting reigning Risk-analysis notions of "real Risk."

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"

Risk Objectivism And Risk Subjectivism: When Are Risks Real, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Typically, those who discuss Risk management envision a two-step process wherein, first, Risk is more or less objectively appraised and, second, the acceptability of those Risks is subjectively evaluated. This paper questions the philosophical foundations of that approach.