Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Shih-Fen CHENG

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving …

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time …

Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen CHENG

On May 6, 2010, the U.S. equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see Figure 1) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. The authors contend that the events of May 6, 2010 exhibit patterns consistent with the type of "flash crash" observed in their earlier study (2010). This paper describes the results of nine different simulations created by using a large-scale computer model to reconstruct the critical elements …

Analysis Of Uncertain Data: Evaluation Of Given Hypotheses, Anatole Gershman, Eugene Fink, Bin Fu, Jaime G. Carbonell

Jaime G. Carbonell

We consider the problem of heuristic evaluation of given hypotheses based on limited observations, in situations when available data are insufficient for rigorous statistical analysis.

Propagation Of Interval And Probabilistic Uncertainty In Cyberinfrastructure-Related Data Processing And Data Fusion, Christian Servin

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Data uncertainty affects the results of data processing. So, it is necessary to find out how the data uncertainty propagates into the uncertainty of the results of data processing. This problem is especially important when cyberinfrastructure enables us to process large amounts of heterogeneous data. In the ideal world, we should have an accurate description of data uncertainty, and well-justified efficient algorithms to propagate this uncertainty. In practice, we are often not yet in this ideal situation: the description of uncertainty is often only approximate, and the algorithms for uncertainty propagation are often not well-justified and not very computationally efficient. …

Technology Investment Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: The Case Of Mobile Payment Systems, Robert J. Kauffman, Jun Liu, Dan Ma

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The recent launch of Google Wallet has brought the issue of technology solutions in mobile payments (m-payments) to the forefront. In deciding whether and when to adopt m-payments, senior managers in banks are concerned about uncertainties regarding future market conditions, technology standards, and consumer and merchant responses, especially their willingness to adopt. This study applies economic theory and modeling for decision-making under uncertainty to bank investments in m-payment systems technology. We assess the projected benefits and costs of investment as a continuous-time stochastic process to determine optimal investment timing. We find that the value of waiting to adopt jumps when …

The Intelligence Game: Assessing Delphi Groups And Structured Question Formats, Bonnie Wintle, Steven Mascaro, Fiona Fidler, Marissa Mcbride, Mark Burgman, Louisa Flander, Geoff Saw, Charles Twardy, Aidan Lyon, Brian Manning

Australian Security and Intelligence Conference

In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting “tournament”. Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, economic and military events. We are contributing to one of these teams by eliciting forecasts from Delphi-style groups in the US and Australia. We elicit probabilities of outcomes for 3-5 monthly questions, such as: Will Australia formally transfer uranium to India by 1 June 2012? Participants submit probabilities in a 3-step interval format, view those of others in their group, share, rate and discuss information, and then make …

Temporal Data Mining Of Uncertain Water Reservoir Data, Abhinaya Mohan, Peter Revesz

CSE Conference and Workshop Papers

This paper describes the challenges of data mining uncertain water reservoir data based on past human operations in order to learn from them reservoir policies that can be automated for the future operation of the water reservoirs. Records of human operations of water reservoirs often contain uncertain data. For example, the recorded amounts of water released and retained in the water reservoirs are typically uncertain, i.e., they are bounded by some minimum and maximum values. Moreover, the time of release is also uncertain, i.e., typically only monthly or weekly amounts are recorded. To increase the effectiveness of data mining of …

Uncertainty-Aware Video Visual Analytics Of Tracked Moving Objects, Markus Höferlin, Benjamin Höferlin, Daniel Weiskopf, Gunther Heidemann

Journal of Spatial Information Science

Vast amounts of video data render manual video analysis useless while recent automatic video analytics techniques suffer from insufficient performance. To alleviate these issues we present a scalable and reliable approach exploiting the visual analytics methodology. This involves the user in the iterative process of exploration hypotheses generation and their verification. Scalability is achieved by interactive filter definitions on trajectory features extracted by the automatic computer vision stage. We establish the interface between user and machine adopting the VideoPerpetuoGram (VPG) for visualization and enable users to provide filter-based relevance feedback. Additionally users are supported in deriving hypotheses by context-sensitive statistical …

Scalable Content Authentication In H.264/Svc Videos Using Perceptual Hashing Based On Dempster-Shafer Theory, Dengpan Ye, Zhuo Wei, Xuhua Ding, Robert H. Deng

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The content authenticity of the multimedia delivery is important issue with rapid development and widely used of multimedia technology. Till now many authentication solutions had been proposed, such as cryptology and watermarking based methods. However, in latest heterogeneous network the video stream transmission has b een coded in scalable way such as H.264/SVC, there is still no good authentication solution. In this paper, we firstly summarized related works and p roposed a scalable content authentication scheme using a ratio of different energy (RDE) based perceptual hashing in Q/S dimension, which is used Dempster-Shafer theory and combined with the latest scalable …

How To Divide Students Into Groups So As To Optimize Learning: Towards A Solution To A Pedagogy-Related Optimization Problem, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

To enhance learning, it is desirable to also let students learn from each other, e.g., by working in groups. It is known that such groupwork can improve learning, but the effect strongly depends on how we divide students into groups. In this paper, based on a first approximation model of student interaction, we describe how to optimally divide students into groups so as to optimize the resulting learning. We hope that, by taking into account other aspects of student interaction, it will be possible to transform our solution into truly optimal practical recommendations.

Stochastic Dominance In Stochastic Dcops For Risk-Sensitive Applications, Nguyen Duc Thien, William Yeoh, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOPs) are well-suited for modeling multi-agent coordination problems where the primary interactions are between local subsets of agents. However, one limitation of DCOPs is the assumption that the constraint rewards are without uncertainty. Researchers have thus extended DCOPs to Stochastic DCOPs (SDCOPs), where rewards are sampled from known probability distribution reward functions, and introduced algorithms to find solutions with the largest expected reward. Unfortunately, such a solution might be very risky, that is, very likely to result in a poor reward. Thus, in this paper, we make three contributions: (1) we propose a stricter objective for …

Prioritized Shaping Of Models For Solving Dec-Pomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, William Yeoh, Prasanna Velagapudi, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

An interesting class of multi-agent POMDP planning problems can be solved by having agents iteratively solve individual POMDPs, find interactions with other individual plans, shape their transition and reward functions to encourage good interactions and discourage bad ones and then recompute a new plan. D-TREMOR showed that this approach can allow distributed planning for hundreds of agents. However, the quality and speed of the planning process depends on the prioritization scheme used. Lower priority agents shape their models with respect to the models of higher priority agents. In this paper, we introduce a new prioritization scheme that is guaranteed to …

Partial Orders For Representing Uncertainty, Causality And Decision Making: General Properties, Operations, And Algorithms, Francisco Adolfo Zapata

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

One of the main objectives of science and engineering is to help people select the most beneficial decisions. To make these decisions, we must know people's preferences, we must have the information about different possible consequences of different decisions. Since information is never absolutely accurate and precise, we must also have information about the degree of certainty of different parts on information. All these types of information naturally lead to partial orders:

- For preferences, a <= b means that b is preferable to a. This relation is used in decision theory.

- For events, a <= b means that a can influence b. This causality relation is one of the fundamental notions of physics, especially of physics of space-time.

* For uncertain statements, a <= b means that a is less certain than b. This relation is used in logics describing uncertainty, such as fuzzy logic.

In each of these areas, there is abundant research about studying the corresponding partial orders. …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

A Geospatial Based Decision Framework For Extending Marssim Regulatory Principles Into The Subsurface, Robert Nathan Stewart

Doctoral Dissertations

The Multi-Agency Radiological Site Survey Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) is a regulatory guidance document regarding compliance evaluation of radiologically contaminated soils and buildings (USNRC, 2000). Compliance is determined by comparing radiological measurements to established limits using a combination of hypothesis testing and scanning measurements. Scanning allows investigators to identify localized pockets of contamination missed during sampling and allows investigators to assess radiological exposure at different spatial scales. Scale is important in radiological dose assessment as regulatory limits can vary with the size of the contaminated area and sites are often evaluated at more than one scale (USNRC, 2000). Unfortunately, scanning is …

Adaptive Decision Support For Structured Organizations: A Case For Orgpomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Nathan Schurr, Alan Carlin, Christopher Amato

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In today's world, organizations are faced with increasingly large and complex problems that require decision-making under uncertainty. Current methods for optimizing such decisions fall short of handling the problem scale and time constraints. We argue that this is due to existing methods not exploiting the inherent structure of the organizations which solve these problems. We propose a new model called the OrgPOMDP (Organizational POMDP), which is based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). This new model combines two powerful representations for modeling large scale problems: hierarchical modeling and factored representations. In this paper we make three key contributions: …

Distributed Model Shaping For Scaling To Decentralized Pomdps With Hundreds Of Agents, Prasanna Velagapudi, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Katia Sycara, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The use of distributed POMDPs for cooperative teams has been severely limited by the incredibly large joint policy- space that results from combining the policy-spaces of the individual agents. However, much of the computational cost of exploring the entire joint policy space can be avoided by observing that in many domains important interactions between agents occur in a relatively small set of scenarios, previously defined as coordination locales (CLs) [11]. Moreover, even when numerous interactions might occur, given a set of individual policies there are relatively few actual interactions. Exploiting this observation and building on an existing model shaping algorithm, …

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving …

A Review Of Situation Identification Techniques In Pervasive Computing, Juan Ye, Simon Dobson, Susan Mckeever

Conference papers

No abstract provided.

Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On May 6, 2010, the U.S. equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see Figure 1) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. The authors contend that the events of May 6, 2010 exhibit patterns consistent with the type of "flash crash" observed in their earlier study (2010). This paper describes the results of nine different simulations created by using a large-scale computer model to reconstruct the critical elements …

Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study, Ole J. Mengshoel, Mark Chavira, Keith Cascio, Adnan Darwiche, Scott Poll, Serdar Uckun

Ole J Mengshoel

We present in this paper a case study of the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis. Here, the diagnosed system is a real-world electrical power system (EPS), i.e., the Advanced Diagnstic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. Our probabilistic approach is formally well founded and based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and arithmetic circuits (ACs). We pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies: model development and real-time reasoning. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing EPSs as BNs, …

A Sketch-Based Language For Representing Uncertainty In The Locations Of Origin Of Herbarium Specimens, Barry J. Kronenfeld, Andrew Weeks

Faculty Research and Creative Activity

Uncertainty fields have been suggested as an appropriate model for retrospective georeferencing of herbarium specimens. Previous work has focused only on automated data capture methods, but techniques for manual data specification may be able to harness human spatial cognition skills to quickly interpret complex spatial propositions. This paper develops a formal modeling language by which location uncertainty fields can be derived from manually sketched features. The language consists of low-level specification of critical probability isolines from which a surface can be uniquely derived, and high-level specification of features and predicates from which low-level isolines can be derived. In a case …

Managing Supply Uncertainty With An Information Market, Zhiling Guo, Fang Fang, Andrew B. Whinston

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We propose a market-based information aggregation mechanism to manage the supply side uncertainty in the supply chain. In our analytical model, a simple supply chain consists of a group of retailers who order a homogeneous product from two suppliers. The two suppliers differ in their ability to fulfill orders – one always delivers orders and the other fulfills orders probabilistically. We model the supply chain decisions as a Stackelberg game where the supplier who has uncertain reliability decides a wholesale price before the retailers who independently receive signals about the supplier’s reliability determine their sourcing strategies. We then propose an …

Font Size: Make Font Size Smaller Make Font Size Default Make Font Size Larger Exploiting Coordination Locales In Distributed Pomdps Via Social Model Shaping, Pradeep Varakantham, Jun Young Kwak, Matthew Taylor, Janusz Marecki, Paul Scerri, Milind Tambe

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Distributed POMDPs provide an expressive framework for modeling multiagent collaboration problems, but NEXPComplete complexity hinders their scalability and application in real-world domains. This paper introduces a subclass of distributed POMDPs, and TREMOR, an algorithm to solve such distributed POMDPs. The primary novelty of TREMOR is that agents plan individually with a single agent POMDP solver and use social model shaping to implicitly coordinate with other agents. Experiments demonstrate that TREMOR can provide solutions orders of magnitude faster than existing algorithms while achieving comparable, or even superior, solution quality.

Artificial Intelligence – I: Subjective Decision Making Using Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Advisor, Owais Malik

International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies

In this paper, we present and compare two-stage type-2 fuzzy logic advisor (FLA) for subjective decision making in the domain of students' performance evaluation. We test our proposed model for evaluating students' performance in our computer science and engineering department at HBCC/KFUPM in two domains namely cooperating training and capstone/senior project assessment where we find these FLAs very useful and promising. In our proposed model, the assessment criteria for different components of cooperative training and senior project are transformed into linguistic labels and evaluation information is extracted into the form of IF-THEN rules from the experts. These rules are modeled …

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time …

Using Agents For Unification Of Information Extraction And Data Mining, Sharjeel Imtiaz, Azmat Hussain, Dr. Sikandar Hiyat

International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies

Early work for unification of information extraction and data mining is motivational and problem stated work. This paper proposes a solution framework for unification using intelligent agents. A Relation manager agent extracted feature with cross feedback approach and also provide a Unified Undirected graphical handle. An RPM agent an approach to minimize loop back proposes pooling and model utilization with common parameter for both text and entity level abstractions.

Collective Multi-Label Classification, Nadia Ghamrawi, Andrew Mccallum

Computer Science Department Faculty Publication Series

Common approaches to multi-label classification learn independent classifiers for each category, and employ ranking or thresholding schemes for classification. Because they do not exploit dependencies between labels, such techniques are only well-suited to problems in which categories are independent. However, in many domains labels are highly interdependent. This paper explores multilabel conditional random field (CRF) classification models that directly parameterize label co-occurrences in multi-label classification. Experiments show that the models outperform their singlelabel counterparts on standard text corpora. Even when multilabels are sparse, the models improve subset classification error by as much as 40%.

Improving The Analyst And Decision-Maker’S Perspective Through Uncertainty Visualization, Evan T. Watkins

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis constructs the Taxonomy of Uncertainty and an approach for enhancing the information in decision support systems. The hierarchical categorization of numerous causes for uncertainty defines the taxonomy, which fostered the development of a technique for visualizing uncertainty. This technique is fundamental to expressing the multi-dimensional uncertainty that can be associated with any object. By including and intuitively expressing uncertainty, the approach facilitates and enhances intuition and decision-making without undue information overload. The resulting approach for enhancing the information involves recording uncertainty, identifying the relevant items, computing and visualizing uncertainty, and providing interaction with the selection of uncertainty. A …