Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Experimental Analysis Of Gbm To Expand The Time Horizon Of Irish Electricity Price Forecasts, Conor Lynch, Christian O'Leary, Preetham Goving Kolar Sundareshan, Yavuz Akin

NIMBUS Articles

In response to the inherent challenges of generating cost-effective electricity consumption schedules for dynamic systems, this paper espouses the use of GBM or Gradient Boosting Machine-based models for electricity price forecasting. These models are applied to data streams from the Irish electricity market and achieve favorable results, relative to the current state-of-the-art. Presently, electricity prices are published 10 h in advance of the trade day of interest. Using the forecasting methodology outlined in this paper, an estimation of these prices can be made available one day in advance of the official price publication, thus extending the time available to plan …