Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Predictability And Dynamics Of Warm-Core Mesoscale Vortex Formation With The 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho" Event, Caleb Todd Grunzke

Theses and Dissertations

The predictability and dynamics of the warm-core mesovortex associated with the northern-flank of the 8 May 2009 “Super Derecho” event are examined by coupling the Advanced Research Weather Forecasting Model with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed facility. A 50-member convection-allowing EnKF ensemble was produced with 6 hourly-cycled analysis and assimilated observations. Cycled analysis started five days prior to 1200 UTC 7 May 2009, at which time the 36 h ensemble forecasts were launched.

The ensemble forecasts all attempted to produce a mesoscale convective system (MCS) but only fourteen percent produced a warm-core mesovortex-like feature similar to the intensity of the …

Multi-Periodic Climate Dynamics: Spectral Analysis Of Instrumental, Short- And Long-Length Proxy Temperature Records, Michael David Madsen

Theses and Dissertations

Analyzing 26 short-length (less than 3000 years) instrumental and proxy temperature records and five long-length (greater than 3000 years) proxy temperature records using Discrete Fourier Transform has shown that as the length of significant periods increase in the time domain then so does the power at which the period is observed. A t-test verifies that a positive correlation exist between the length of the significant periods and the power with a confidence level of ∝ >0.05. Significant frequencies with period greater than 30 years are confirmed using Monte Carlo simulations, which were created using a nonlinear approach known as fractional …