Public Health Commons^™

(R1468) Global Analysis Of An Seirs Model For Covid-19 Capturing Saturated Incidence With Treatment Response, David A. Oluyori, Helen O. Adebayo, Ángel G.C. Pérez

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this work, a new SEIRS model with saturated incidence rate and piecewise linear treatment response is proposed to describe the dynamics of COVID-19. It is assumed that the treatment response is proportional to the number of infected people as long as the incidence cases are within the capacity of the healthcare system, after which the value becomes constant, when the number of confirmed cases exceeds the carrying capacity of the available medical facilities. Thus, the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number …

A Statistical Comparison Of Covid-19 In The United States Across Political Affiliations And Census Regions, Margarito Torres

Theses and Dissertations

In mid-January 2020, the United States reported their first cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from a passenger returning from Wuhan, China. Initially, the situation wasn’t very alarming as in China and European countries, but the situation began to worsen in March 2020 when the number of cases began to multiply. Then, in a matter of a few months, the United States became the number one country in terms of total cases and total deaths from COVID-19. We have been closely observing the United States and the world since July 2020. Our study aims to compare the political affiliations and …

Predictors Of The Covid-19 Social Distancing Practice Among Undergraduate Health Students In Samarinda City, Indonesia: A Cross-Sectional Study, Siti Hadijah Aspan, Pramon Viwattanakulvanid

Kesmas

Social distancing is a health protocol recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for reducing the spread of COVID-19. Undergraduate health students play an important role in the dissemination of accurate information. This study identified predictors that influenced the COVID-19 social distancing practice and examined the sources of social distancing information among undergraduate health students in Samarinda City, Indonesia. This cross-sectionalonline survey study (March-April 2021) involved 422 undergraduate students from medicine, public health, and pharmacy faculties at Mulawarman University. Binary logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with the COVID-19 social distancing practice. The results showed that age (AOR …

Knowledge, Attitudes, And Practices Of Health Personnel In Responding To The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Dyah Suryani, Suyitno Suyitno, Maretalinia Maretalinia, Elvi Juliansyah, Vernonia Yora Saki, Kraichat Tantrakarnapa

Kesmas

The COVID-19 pandemic, originated in China, has spread to worldwide, including Indonesia. Until July 2021, the growth rate has been gradually increasing, and cases have been found in all 34 provinces of Indonesia. This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) of health personnel in the primary health care towards the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia using online self-report questionnaire. A total of 440 respondents contributed to this online survey. The average level of KAP were 7.7 out of 10.0, 14.3 out of 15.0, and 31.9 out of 36.0, respectively. There was no significant association between respondents’ …

The Effectiveness And Safety Of Favipiravir In Covid-19 Hospitalized Patients At Tertiary Referral Hospital, Bali, Indonesia, Herni Damayanti, I Gede K Sajinadiyasa, Hindun Wilda Risni, Rani Sauriasari

Kesmas

COVID-19 is a major public health problem, with still questionable specific cure. Favipiravir is a COVID-19 antiviral that is potentially a therapy for COVID-19. This study aimed to analyze its effectivity and safety in moderate to critical hospitalized patients. This study was a retrospective cohort in a tertiary referral hospital in Denpasar City, Bali Province, Indonesia, from August 2020 to January 2021. There was a total of 192 patients; 96 in the favipiravir group and 96in the non-favipiravir group (remdesivir/oseltamivir). Effectivity was measured by assessing the clinical condition at the end of the isolation period of 14 days. The favipiravir …

Evaluation Of The United States Covid-19 Vaccine Allocation Strategy, Md Rafiul Islam, Tamer Oraby, Audrey Mccombs, Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury, Mohammad Al-Mamun, Michael G. Tyshenko, Claus Kadelkai

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Anticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States developed priority vaccine allocations for specific demographic groups in the population. This study evaluates the performance of the CDC vaccine allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years of life lost (YLL)), under the same framework as the CDC allocation: four priority vaccination groups and population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation and living condition (congested or non-congested).

Methods and findings: We developed a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements of the …

Professional Responsibility, Legal Malpractice, Cybersecurity, And Cyber-Insurance In The Covid-19 Era, Ethan S. Burger

St. Mary's Journal on Legal Malpractice & Ethics

In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, law firms conformed their activities to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and state health authority guidelines by immediately reducing the size of gatherings, encouraging social distancing, and mandating the use of protective gear. These changes necessitated the expansion of law firm remote operations, made possible by the increased adoption of technological tools to coordinate workflow and administrative tasks, communicate with clients, and engage with judicial and governmental bodies.

Law firms’ increased use of these technological tools for carrying out legal and administrative activities has implications …

Understanding Covid-19 Dynamics And The Effects Of Interventions In The Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study, Jamie M. Caldwell, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, Robert Neil F. Leong, Richard T. Gray, James G. Wood, Linh-Vi Le, Emma S. Mcbryde, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Background

COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries; possibly because of differing demographics; socioeconomics; surveillance; and policy responses. Here; we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines; a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.

Methods

We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility; testing; and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy; MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon; Central Visayas; and the National Capital …

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …

Adapting An Agent-Based Model Of Infectious Disease Spread In An Irish County To Covid-19, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

The dynamics that lead to the spread of an infectious disease through a population can be characterized as a complex system. One way to model such a system, in order to improve preparedness, and learn more about how an infectious disease, such as COVID-19, might spread through a population, is agent-based epidemiological modelling. When a pandemic is caused by an emerging disease, it takes time to develop a completely new model that captures the complexity of the system. In this paper, we discuss adapting an existing agent-based model for the spread of measles in Ireland to simulate the spread of …

Knowledge And Anxiety About Covid-19 In The State Of Qatar, And The Middle East And North Africa Region—A Cross Sectional Study, Sathyanarayanan Doraiswamy, Sohaila Cheema, Maisonneuve Patrick, Amit Abraham, Ingmar Weber, Jisun An, Albert B. Lowenfels, Ravinder Mamtani

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wreaked havoc across the globe, we have witnessed substantial mis- and disinformation regarding various aspects of the disease. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a self-administered questionnaire for the general public (recruited via social media) and healthcare workers (recruited via email) from the State of Qatar, and the Middle East and North Africa region to understand the knowledge of and anxiety levels around COVID-19 (April–June 2020) during the early stage of the pandemic. The final dataset used for the analysis comprised of 1658 questionnaires (53.0% of 3129 received questionnaires; 1337 [80.6%] from the …

Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Of Covid-19 By Health District In Georgia, Usa, March–December 2020, Chigozie A. Ogwara, Arshpreet Kaur Mallhi, Xinyi Hua, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Jessica S. Schwind, Xiaolu Zhou, Jeffery A. Jones, Joanne Chopak-Foss, Gerardo Chowell, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

This study quantifies the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 across public health districts in Georgia, USA, and tests if per capita cumulative case count varies across counties. To estimate the time-varying reproduction number, Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia and its 18 public health districts, we apply the R package ‘EpiEstim’ to the time series of historical daily incidence of confirmed cases, 2 March–15 December 2020. The epidemic curve is shifted backward by nine days to account for the incubation period and delay to testing. Linear regression is performed between log10-transformed per capita cumulative case count and log10-transformed population size. We observe …

Covid-19 And Preparing Planetary Health For Future Ecological Crises: Hopes From Glycomics For Vaccine Innovation, Xueqing Wang, Zhaohua Zhong, Wei Wang

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

A key lesson emerging from COVID-19 is that pandemic proofing planetary health against future ecological crises calls for systems science and preventive medicine innovations. With greater proximity of the human and animal natural habitats in the 21st century, it is also noteworthy that zoonotic infections such as COVID-19 that jump from animals to humans are increasingly plausible in the coming decades. In this context, glycomics technologies and the third alphabet of life, the sugar code, offer veritable prospects to move omics systems science from discovery to diverse applications of relevance to global public health and preventive medicine. In this expert …

Digital Sustainability And Its Implications For Finance And Climate Change, Gerard George, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As the pandemic forced the entire world to a virtual standstill, nature revived a little. The US emitted 10.3% less CO2 in 2020 than in 2019 and other regions similarly experienced emission declines. Depending on the source, global carbon emissions were down between 4 and 8% in 2020.2 Consumers globally have expressed more concern about sustainability, an observation confirmed by large survey research by Accenture, Kantar, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and Ipsos.3 In its latest Emissions Gap Report4 , the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) explicitly connected the pandemic to climate change, nature loss, and pollution. Besides the acceleration of business …

Sars-Cov-2 Transmission In Alberta, British Columbia, And Ontario, Canada, December 25, 2019, To December 1, 2020, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Yuen Wai Hung, Sylvia Ofori, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Po-Ying Lai, Gerardo Chowell

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

Objective:

This study aimed to investigate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiology in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Methods:

Using data through December 1, 2020, we estimated time-varying reproduction number, R t , using EpiEstim package in R, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) across the 3 provinces.

Results:

In Ontario, 76% (92 745/121 745) of cases were in Toronto, Peel, York, Ottawa, and Durham; in Alberta, 82% (49 878/61 169) in Calgary and Edmonton; in British Columbia, 90% (31 142/34 699) in Fraser and Vancouver Coastal. Across 3 provinces, R t dropped to ≤ 1 after April. …

Lag Effects Of Ozone, Pm2.5, And Meteorological Factors On Covid-19 New Cases At The Disease Epicenter In Queens, New York, Atin Adhikari, Jingjing Yin

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

The influences of environmental factors on COVID-19 may not be immediate and could be lagged for days to weeks. This study investigated the choice of lag days for calculating cumulative lag effects of ozone, PM2.5, and five meteorological factors (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and cloud percentages) on COVID-19 new cases at the epicenter of Queens County, New York, before the governor’s executive order on wearing of masks in public places (1 March to 11 April 2020). Daily data for selected air pollutants and meteorological factors were collected from the US EPA Air Quality System, weather observation station …

Analyzing Student Experience On Group Work With The Application Of Different Group Allocation Approaches, An Yee Tan

Management and HR

Working as a group can be as challenging as working by oneself. Common issues like ineffective group work, unequal work contribution, and poor communication are believed to be the reasons why many students preferred to work individually. The purpose of this study is to understand if there is a disparity in student experience on group work by implementing different methods of group formation, which are, intentional group formation and random assignment. Topics around team well-being, team communication, and team effectiveness are the main focus of this study. The second emphasis of this study is students’ opinions on whether or not …

Predictive Modeling And Estimation Of The Doubling Time Of Confirmed Cases Of Covid-19 In Niger, Ibrahim Sidi Zakari, Hadiza Galadima

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region …

Assessment Of Characteristics And Conditions Before The End Of Lockdown, David San-Martín-Roldán, Francisca Rojo-Lazo, Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez, Pablo San-Martín-Roldán, Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla, Víctor P. Díaz-Narváez

Kesmas

After months of blockades and restriction, the decision of the best time to end the lockdown after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is the big question for health rectors. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics and conditions for ending the blockade after the first wave of COVID-19. Data on the variables of interest were subjected to linear and non-linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explains the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the observed curve of the confidence interval were estimated. Regression which was estimated subsequently revealed …

Modeling The Effect Of Lockdown Timing As A Covid‑19 Control Measure In Countries With Differing Social Contacts, Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Jose Campo Maldonado, Kristina Vatcheva, Susie Elsaadany, Walid Q. Alali, Joseph C. Longenecker, Mustafa Al‑Zoughool

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R0, for that model. Applying the R 0 formula as a function in previously-published social contact matrices from 152 countries, we produced the distribution and four categories of possible R 0 for the 152 countries and chose one …

Covid-19 Pandemic In Brazil: Clinical Manifestation And Effect Of Comorbidities On Outcomes Of Hospitalized Sari Cases, Mario Keko, Karl E. Peace

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

Hospitalized SARI cases of 2020 reported to the Ministry of Health of Brazil through the SIVEP Gripe system are subject to our analysis. They are classified as COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 and clinical manifestations and comorbidities are reported for each group. The time trend in the number of cases reported in 2020 is compared to the previous year and the performance of the PCR test is explored in each group. The proportion of death is reported among different subgroups of the patients by epidemiological week. Logistic and Poisson regression models are used to check the effect of comorbidities on clinical outcomes.

Modes Of Transmission Of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (Sars-Cov-2) And Factors Influencing On The Airborne Transmission: A Review, Mahdieh Delikhoon, Marcelo I. Guzman, Ramin Nabizadeh, Abbas Norouzian Baghani

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The multiple modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission including airborne, droplet, contact, and fecal–oral transmissions that cause coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) contribute to a public threat to the lives of people worldwide. Herein, different databases are reviewed to evaluate modes of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and study the effects of negative pressure ventilation, air conditioning system, and related protection approaches of this virus. Droplet transmission was commonly reported to occur in particles with diameter >5 µm that can quickly settle gravitationally on surfaces (1–2 m). Instead, fine and ultrafine particles (airborne transmission) can stay suspended for an extended period of time (≥2 h) …

Analyzing Tweets On New Norm: Work From Home During Covid-19 Outbreak, Swapna Gottipati, Kyong Jin Shim, Hui Hian Teo, Karthik Nityanand, Shreyansh Shivam

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a large-scale work-from-home trend globally in recent months. In this paper, we study the phenomenon of “work-from-home” (WFH) by performing social listening. We propose an analytics pipeline designed to crawl social media data and perform text mining analyzes on textual data from tweets scrapped based on hashtags related to WFH in COVID-19 situation. We apply text mining and NLP techniques to analyze the tweets for extracting the WFH themes and sentiments (positive and negative). Our Twitter theme analysis adds further value by summarizing the common key topics, allowing employers to gain more insights on areas of …

Nutritional Approach For Increasing Public Health During Pandemic Of Covid-19: A Comprehensive Review Of Antiviral Nutrients And Nutraceuticals, Vahideh Ebrahimzadeh-Attari, Ghodratollah Panahi, James R. Hébert Scd, Alireza Ostadrahimi, Maryam Saghafi-Asl, Neda Lotfi-Yaghin, Behzad Baradaran

Faculty Publications

Background: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is considered as the most life-threatening pandemic disease during the last decade. The individual nutritional status, though usually ignored in the management of COVID-19, plays a critical role in the immune function and pathogenesis of infection. Accordingly, the present review article aimed to report the effects of nutrients and nutraceuticals on respiratory viral infections including COVID-19, with a focus on their mechanisms of action.

Methods: Studies were identified via systematic searches of the databases including PubMed/ MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Google Scholar from 2000 until April 2020, using keywords. All relevant clinical and experimental studies …

Analysis Of Intervention Effectiveness Using Early Outbreak Transmission Dynamics To Guide Future Pandemic Management And Decision-Making In Kuwait, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Joseph C. Longenecker, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Walid Q. Alali, Mohammad Alseaidan, Susie Elsaadany, Mustafa Al-Zoughool

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction …

Modeling Coupled Disease-Behavior Dynamics Of Sars-Cov-2 Using Influence Networks, Juliana C. Taube

Honors Projects

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has caused significant human morbidity and mortality since its emergence in late 2019. Not only have over three million people died, but humans have been forced to change their behavior in a variety of ways, including limiting their contacts, social distancing, and wearing masks. Early infectious disease models, like the classical SIR model by Kermack and McKendrick, do not account for differing contact structures and behavior. More recent work has demonstrated that contact structures and behavior can considerably impact disease dynamics. We construct a coupled disease-behavior dynamical model for SARS-CoV-2 by incorporating heterogeneous contact …

Rapid Transition Of A Technical Course From Face-To-Face To Online, Swapna Gottipatti, Venky Shankaraman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Just like most universities around the world, the senior management at Singapore Management University decided to move all courses to a virtual, online, synchronous mode, giving instructors a very short notice period—one week—to make this transition. In this paper, we describe the challenges, practical solutions adopted, and the lessons learnt in rapidly transitioning a face-to-face Master’s degree course in Text Analytics and Applications into a virtual, online, course format that could deliver a quality learning experience.