Public Health Commons^™

Determining The Proportionality Of Ischemic Stroke Risk Factors To Age, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

While age is an important risk factor, there are some disadvantages to including it in a stroke risk model: age can dominate the risk score and lead to over-or under-predictions in some age groups. There is evidence to suggest that some of these disadvantages are due to the non-proportionality of other risk factors with age, eg, risk factors contribute differently to stroke risk based on an individual’s age. In this paper, we present a framework to test if risk factors are proportional with age. We then apply the framework to a set of risk factors using Framingham heart study data …

An Odd-Protocol For Agent-Based Model For The Spread Of Covid-19 In Ireland, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

Covid-19: A Simple Curve Approximation Tool, Jane Courtney

Articles

In the current COVID-19 pandemic, much focus is put on ‘flattening the curve’. This ‘curve’ refers to the cases versus time graph, which shows the rise of a disease to its peak before descending. The aim in a pandemic is to flatten this curve by reducing the peak and spreading out the timeline. However, the models used to predict this curve are often not clearly outlined, no model parameters are given, and models are not tested against real data. This lack of detail makes it difficult to recreate the curve from these models. What is much needed is a simple …

Myopia Outcome Study Of Atropine In Children (Mosaic): Design And Methodology, Saoirse Mccrann, Daniel Ian Flitcroft, John Butler, James Loughman

Articles

Purpose

The Myopia Outcome Study of Atropine in Children (MOSAIC) aims to explore the efficacy, safety, acceptability and mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine for myopia control in a European population.

Methods

MOSAIC is an investigator-led, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial investigating the efficacy, safety and mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine eyedrops in myopic progression management. During phase 1 of the trial, 250 children aged 6-16 years with progressive myopia apply eye drops once nightly in both eyes from randomisation to month 24. No treatment is given during phase 2 from month 24 to 36 (washout period) for those …

Plasmonic Gold Nanoparticle For Detection Of Fungi And Human Cutaneous Fungal Infections, Tobiloba Sojinrin, Kangze Liu, Joao Conde, Hugh Byrne, James Curtin, Daxiang Cui, Furong Tian

Articles

Fungi, which are common in the environment, can cause a multitude of diseases. Warm, humid conditions allow fungi to grow and infect humans via the respiratory, digestive and reproductive tracts, genital area and other bodily interfaces. Fungi can be detected directly by microscopy, using the potassium hydroxide (KOH) test, which is the gold standard and most popular method for fungal screening. However, this test requires trained personnel operating specialist equipment, including a fluorescent microscope and culture facilities. As most acutely infected patients seek medical attention within the first few days of symptoms, the optimal diagnostic test would be rapid and …

Addressing The Burden Of Uncorrected Refractive Error In Mozambique, Stephen Thompson, James Loughman, Prasidh Ramson, Luigi Bilotti, Geoff Harris, Kovin Naidoo

Conference Papers

A situational analysis indicates a lack of eye health personnel who can and do refract. The logical course of action would be to train more eye health personnel. A conservative estimated annual burden of URE in lost productivity in Mozambique is $14,486,692. To achieve the V2020 target ratio, an extra 184 workers are needed in six provinces analysed.The analysis assumes the existing personnel are well trained and dedicate time to offering a refraction service. It also assumes that the patient receives the care they require. Other aspects of the situational analysis suggest this is currently not always the case. A …

One Student One Family And The Mozambique Eyecare Project, Stephen Thompson, Aoife Phelan, Tatiana Santana, Elizebete Catarino, Vivien Ocampo, Cesar Faria, James Loughman

Articles

Background - The Mozambique Eyecare Programme is funded by Irish Aid and designed to address the need for optometric education in Lusophone Africa. It is a multi-partner collaboration between Universidade Lúrio, Mozambique, Technological University Dublin, Ireland, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, and The International Centre for Eyecare Education (ICEE) an international Non Government Organisation. A key output from the programme is the development of an optometry school based at Universidade Lúrio, the first of its kind in Mozambique. The aim is to address unmet eye care needs through human resource development.

All students enrolled at Universidade Lúrio, including the optometry …