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Using Quantitative Disease Dynamics As A Tool For Guiding Response To Avian Influenza In Poultry In The United States Of America, K. M. Pepin, E. Spackman, J. D. Brown, K. L. Pabilonia, Lindsey P. Garber, J. Todd Weaver, D. A. Kennedy, Kelly A. Patyk, K. P. Huyvaert, Ryan S. Miller, Alan B. Franklin, Kerri Pedersen, T. L. Bogich, P. Rohani, Susan A. Shriner, Colleen T. Webb, S. Riley

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts …