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Covid-19: Exploring The Probability Of Disease Extinction - A Modeling And Simulation Study, Donald Porchia

Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2020-

There are two distinct topics considered in this dissertation. The first is the formulation of a compartmental model using reactive social distancing in which disease transmission changes as a function of the state variables of the model; in this case, the cumulative incidence. The model assumes a single strain epidemic of Covid-19 in the United States and is used to estimate the cumulative number of deaths due to the epidemic where incidence data is used to calibrate and validate the model. The second topic concerns the use of the stochastic threshold to determine disease persistence or extinction. The Covid-19 pandemic …