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Epidemiological Models, Parameters, And Prediction Of The Covid-19 Outbreak In A Southwest Georgia Hotspot, Daniel F. Linder, William M. Sewell Iii, Jack D. Owens, Jim Franklin, Mark Miller, Casey Newton, Priyank Shah
Epidemiological Models, Parameters, And Prediction Of The Covid-19 Outbreak In A Southwest Georgia Hotspot, Daniel F. Linder, William M. Sewell Iii, Jack D. Owens, Jim Franklin, Mark Miller, Casey Newton, Priyank Shah
Journal of the Georgia Public Health Association
Background: We investigate epidemiological models, their parameters, and the models’ predictive performance of daily new cases during the first three weeks of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a southwest Georgia hotspot.
Methods: We fit stochastic versions of the classical SIR, a network-based SIR, an SEIR model with two different priors on the latent period rate parameter, and a simple doubling time model to SARS-CoV-2 patients’ date of hospital admission and length of symptoms data from the Phoebe Putney Health System.
Results: The estimated basic reproductive numbers and 95% Bayesian credible intervals for each of the models were: 1.98 (1.63, 2.45) for …