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Projections Of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios, Antonio Gasparrini, Yurning Guo, Francesa Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Veronika Huber, Shilu Tong, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kysely, Ales Urban, Jauni Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Iniguez, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Astrom, Martina Ragettli, Yue Guo, Chang-Fu Wu, Antonella Zaobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle Bell, Tran Ngoc Dang, Duong Do Van, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andy Haines, Ben Armstrong

Articles

Summary Background Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series …