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Articles 1 - 7 of 7
Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
A Tale Of Two Viruses: Why Smallpox Was Eradicated And Polio Persists, Katherine G. Mcgough, Erin N. Bodine
A Tale Of Two Viruses: Why Smallpox Was Eradicated And Polio Persists, Katherine G. Mcgough, Erin N. Bodine
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The smallpox and poliomyelitis (polio) viruses were, at a time, one of the largest threats to global public health killing millions until global eradication campaigns were put into effect. Vaccination led to the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio for most of the world. However, polio continues to persist at endemic levels in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We developed ODE models of smallpox and polio to explore differences in transmission dynamics and determine if the underlying biology has made poliomyelitis more difficult to eradicate. Our model analysis shows there are multiple factors which should allow polio to have a …
Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug
Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Viral hepatitis negatively affects the health of millions, with the worst health outcomes associated with the hepatitis D virus (HDV). Fortunately, HDV is rare and requires prior infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) before it can establish infection and transmit. Here, we develop a mathematical model of HBV and HDV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa to investigate the effects of hepatitis B vaccination on both HBV and HDV. Our findings illustrate a hepatitis B vaccination rate above 0.006 year-1 reduces hepatitis D by over 90%, and a vaccination rate above 0.0221 year-1 reduces hepatitis B by over 90%, …
On Efficacy And Effectiveness Of Vaccines: A Mathematical Approach Based On Conditional Probability With Applications To The Covid-19 Context, Flavius Guias
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This paper presents a mathematically formalized approach which points out the relation between efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines. The first term denotes the relative degree of protection in clinical trials or under ideal conditions, while the latter is based on observed real-life data. We define the efficacy by a similar formula to the effectiveness, but the probabilities involved in the relative risk are conditional with respect to the exposure to the virus. If exposure and vaccination status are independent, the two quantities are equal. Otherwise, the observed value of the effectiveness is a biased one, as it could be seen …
Epidemic Conditions With Temporary Link Deactivation On A Network Sir Disease Model, Hannah Scanlon, John Gemmer
Epidemic Conditions With Temporary Link Deactivation On A Network Sir Disease Model, Hannah Scanlon, John Gemmer
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to avoid infection while also maintaining preexisting, interpersonal relationships. Specifically, we use a network model in which individuals probabilistically deactivate connections to infected individuals and later reconnect to the same individuals upon recovery. To analyze this network model, a mean field approximation consisting of a system of fourteen ordinary differential equations for the number of nodes and edges is developed. This system …
Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer
Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …
Predicting Tumor Response To Radiotherapy Based On Estimation Of Non-Treatment Parameters, Yutian Huang, Allison L. Lewis
Predicting Tumor Response To Radiotherapy Based On Estimation Of Non-Treatment Parameters, Yutian Huang, Allison L. Lewis
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Though clinicians can now collect detailed information about a variety of tumor characteristics as a tumor evolves, it remains difficult to predict the efficacy of a given treatment prior to administration. Additionally, the process of data collection may be invasive and expensive. Thus, the creation of a framework for predicting patient response to treatment using only information collected prior to the start of treatment could be invaluable. In this study, we employ ordinary differential equation models for tumor growth and utilize synthetic data from a cellular automaton model for calibration. We investigate which parameters have the most influence upon treatment …
Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz
Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …