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Pathogen Emergence As Complex Biological Invasion: Lessons From Dynamical Systems Modeling, Sudam Surasinghe, Marisabel Rodriguez, Victor Meszaros, Jane Molofsky, Salvador Almagro-Moreno, Brandon Ogbunugafor

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Infectious disease emergence has become the target of cross-disciplinary efforts
that aim to understand and predict the shape of outbreaks. The many challenges
involved with the prediction of disease emergence events is a characteristic that in-
fectious diseases share with biological invasions in many subfields of ecology (e.g.,
how certain plants are able to successfully invade a new niche). Like infectious
diseases, biological invasions by plants and animals involve interactions between
agents (pathogens and plants in their respective cases) and a recipient niche. In
this study, we examine the problem of pathogen emergence through the lens of a
framework first …