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The Best Predictions In Experimental Biology Are Critical And Persuasive, Douglas S. Fudge, Andy J. Turko

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

A powerful way to evaluate scientific explanations (hypotheses) is to test the predictions that they make. In this way, predictions serve as an important bridge between abstract hypotheses and concrete experiments. Experimental biologists, however, generally receive little guidance on how to generate quality predictions. Here, we identify two important components of good predictions – criticality and persuasiveness – which relate to the ability of a prediction (and the experiment it implies) to disprove a hypothesis or to convince a skeptic that the hypothesis has merit. Using a detailed example, we demonstrate how striving for predictions that are both critical and …