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Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences
Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte
Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland– urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for …
Willow Abundance And Condition Mapping In Rocky Mountain National Park, Eric M. Nielsen
Willow Abundance And Condition Mapping In Rocky Mountain National Park, Eric M. Nielsen
Institute for Natural Resources Publications
Riparian and wetland willow species have undergone serious declines in Rocky Mountain National Park as a consequence of a variety of environmental changes and, most recently, damage resulting from moose overpopulation. To address concerns about the long-term status of willows in the park, we developed remote sensing-based raster maps of riparian and wetland willow species presence, canopy cover percentage, canopy height, and leaf area index. All outputs were produced at 3-meter resolution, and represent willows as they existed in 2021. The mapping was performed via random forests classification and regression models trained on several hundred vegetation plots from a variety …