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Articles 1 - 30 of 84
Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences
Non-Native Rhizophora Mangle As Sinks For Coastal Contamination On Moloka’I, Hawai’I, Geoffrey Szafranski, Elise F. Granek, Michelle L. Hladik, Mia Hackett
Non-Native Rhizophora Mangle As Sinks For Coastal Contamination On Moloka’I, Hawai’I, Geoffrey Szafranski, Elise F. Granek, Michelle L. Hladik, Mia Hackett
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Coastal mangrove forests provide a suite of environmental services, including sequestration of anthropogenic contamination. Yet, research lags on the environmental fate and potential human health risks of mangrove-sequestered contaminants in the context of mangrove removal for development and range shifts due to climate change. To address this, we conducted a study on Moloka'i, Hawai'i, comparing microplastic and pesticide contamination in coastal compartments both at areas modified by non-native red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) and unmodified, open coastline. Sediment, porewater, and mangrove plant tissues were collected to quantify microplastic and pesticide concentrations across ecosystem type. Average microplastics were similar between …
Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte
Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland– urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for …
Willow Abundance And Condition Mapping In Rocky Mountain National Park, Eric M. Nielsen
Willow Abundance And Condition Mapping In Rocky Mountain National Park, Eric M. Nielsen
Institute for Natural Resources Publications
Riparian and wetland willow species have undergone serious declines in Rocky Mountain National Park as a consequence of a variety of environmental changes and, most recently, damage resulting from moose overpopulation. To address concerns about the long-term status of willows in the park, we developed remote sensing-based raster maps of riparian and wetland willow species presence, canopy cover percentage, canopy height, and leaf area index. All outputs were produced at 3-meter resolution, and represent willows as they existed in 2021. The mapping was performed via random forests classification and regression models trained on several hundred vegetation plots from a variety …
Planning For Future Fire: Scenario Analysis Of An Accelerated Fuel Reduction Plan For The Western United States, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Fermin J. Alcasena, Rachel Houtman
Planning For Future Fire: Scenario Analysis Of An Accelerated Fuel Reduction Plan For The Western United States, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Fermin J. Alcasena, Rachel Houtman
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Recent fire seasons brought a new fire reality to the western US, and motivated federal agencies to explore scenarios for augmenting current fuel management and forest restoration in areas where fires might threaten critical resources and developed areas. To support this effort, we modeled the scheduling of an accelerated forest and fuel management scenario on 76 western US national forests. Specifically, we modeled a 10-year ramp up of current forest and fuel management that targeted the source of wildfire exposure to developed areas and simulated treatment in areas that accounted for 77% of the predicted exposure. We used a sample …
Projected Impact Of Mid-21st Century Climate Change On Wildfire Hazard In A Major Urban Watershed Outside Portland, Oregon Usa, Andy Mcevoy, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Andres Holz, Arielle J. Catalano, Kelly E. Gleason
Projected Impact Of Mid-21st Century Climate Change On Wildfire Hazard In A Major Urban Watershed Outside Portland, Oregon Usa, Andy Mcevoy, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Andres Holz, Arielle J. Catalano, Kelly E. Gleason
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Characterizing wildfire regimes where wildfires are uncommon is challenged by a lack of empirical information. Moreover, climate change is projected to lead to increasingly frequent wildfires and additional annual area burned in forests historically characterized by long fire return intervals. Western Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have experienced few large wildfires (fires greater than 100 hectares) the past century and are characterized to infrequent large fires with return intervals greater than 500 years. We evaluated impacts of climate change on wildfire hazard in a major urban watershed outside Portland, OR, USA. We simulated wildfire occurrence and fire regime characteristics under …
Quantitative And Qualitative Approaches To Assess Tree Vigor And Stand Health In Dry Pine Forests, Nancy Grulke, Craig Bienz, Kate Hrinkevich, Jason Maxfield, Kellie Uyeda
Quantitative And Qualitative Approaches To Assess Tree Vigor And Stand Health In Dry Pine Forests, Nancy Grulke, Craig Bienz, Kate Hrinkevich, Jason Maxfield, Kellie Uyeda
Biology Faculty Publications and Presentations
Despite a critical need to evaluate effectiveness of forest treatments in improving stand health, practitioners lack quantitative, repeatable metrics to assess tree vigor and stand health. We evaluated canopy and whole tree attributes of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. Ex Laws) related to carbon balance, water balance, and susceptibility to insects and pathogens in dry, pine-dominated forest stands during a multi-year drought, an environmental challenge to stand resilience. Metrics of trees in two unmanaged, and seven treated forested stands, in both uplands and lowlands to develop the quantitative approach. Whole tree and crown attributes including needle length and color, branchlet …
Vulnerability Of Small Forest Patches To Fire In The Paraiba Do Sul River Valley, Southeast Brazil: Implications For Restoration Of The Atlantic Forest Biome, Betina J. Guedes, Klecia G. Massi, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus
Vulnerability Of Small Forest Patches To Fire In The Paraiba Do Sul River Valley, Southeast Brazil: Implications For Restoration Of The Atlantic Forest Biome, Betina J. Guedes, Klecia G. Massi, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
The Atlantic Forest biome, a biodiversity hotspot historically threatened by deforestation and human disturbance, has recently seen a net gain in native forest cover due to changes in land use, enactment of new laws, and substantial investment in restoration. Like many South American and global ecosystems, the Atlantic Forest biome has also experienced an increase in area burned by wildfire largely due to human ignitions, which threatens these gains. Our objective was to understand the vulnerability of protected areas and small patches of neotropical forest to fire in the Paraíba do Sul River Valley, Brazil, a region within the Atlantic …
Disturbance Refugia Within Mosaics Of Forest Fire, Drought, And Insect Outbreaks, Meg A. Krawchuk, Garrett W. Meigs, Jennifer M. Cartwright, Jonathan D. Coop, Raymond Davis, Andres Holz, Crystal Kolden, Arjan Jh Meddens
Disturbance Refugia Within Mosaics Of Forest Fire, Drought, And Insect Outbreaks, Meg A. Krawchuk, Garrett W. Meigs, Jennifer M. Cartwright, Jonathan D. Coop, Raymond Davis, Andres Holz, Crystal Kolden, Arjan Jh Meddens
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Disturbance refugia – locations that experience less severe or frequent disturbances than the surrounding landscape – provide a framework to highlight not only where and why these biological legacies persist as adjacent areas change but also the value of those legacies in sustaining biodiversity. Recent studies of disturbance refugia in forest ecosystems have focused primarily on fire, with a growing recognition of important applications to land management. Given the wide range of disturbance processes in forests, developing a broader understanding of disturbance refugia is important for scientists and land managers, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate …
Fire And Land Cover Change In The Palouse Prairie–Forest Ecotone, Washington And Idaho, Usa, Penelope Morgan, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser Ii, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mara Johnson
Fire And Land Cover Change In The Palouse Prairie–Forest Ecotone, Washington And Idaho, Usa, Penelope Morgan, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser Ii, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mara Johnson
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Background: Prairie–forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. Our objective was to understand how historical and current fire occurrences and human development influenced the Palouse Prairie–forest ecotone. We used General Land Office survey field notes about the occurrence of bearing trees to locate historical (1870s to 1880s) prairie, pine savanna, and forest at the eastern edge of the bioregion. We combined LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation classes to contrast historical land cover with current land cover. We reconstructed …
The Fire And Tree Mortality Database, For Empirical Modeling Of Individual Tree Mortality After Fire, C. Alina Cansler, Sharon M. Hood, J. Morgan Varner, Phillip J. Van Mantgem, Michelle C. Agne, Matthew Ayres, Robert A. Andrus, Jonathon D. Bakker, Michael A. Battaglia, Shelby A. Weiss, Multiple Additional Authors
The Fire And Tree Mortality Database, For Empirical Modeling Of Individual Tree Mortality After Fire, C. Alina Cansler, Sharon M. Hood, J. Morgan Varner, Phillip J. Van Mantgem, Michelle C. Agne, Matthew Ayres, Robert A. Andrus, Jonathon D. Bakker, Michael A. Battaglia, Shelby A. Weiss, Multiple Additional Authors
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Wildland fires have a multitude of ecological effects in forests, woodlands, and savannas across the globe. A major focus of past research has been on tree mortality from fire, as trees provide a vast range of biological services. We assembled a database of individual-tree records from prescribed fires and wildfires in the United States. The Fire and Tree Mortality (FTM) database includes records from 164,293 individual trees with records of fire injury (crown scorch, bole char, etc.), tree diameter, and either mortality or top-kill up to ten years post-fire. Data span 142 species and 62 genera, from 409 fires occurring …
Hydrochorous Seed Dispersal In Riparian Forests Altered By Urbanization, Christa Von Behren, J. Alan Yeakley
Hydrochorous Seed Dispersal In Riparian Forests Altered By Urbanization, Christa Von Behren, J. Alan Yeakley
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
While riparian habitat alterations from urban stream syndrome are known to affect vegetation establishment and survival, the degree to which riparian seed delivery by hydrochory is affected by urbanization is unclear. We hypothesized that (1) there would be a reduction in the overall number of seeds deposited by streams as watershed urbanization increased; and (2) in the most urbanized watersheds, seeds deposited by water would be predominantly from species with traits favoring dispersal in general, including tall stature and high seed production, and favoring deposition by water in particular, including large seed size and the presence of a dispersal appendage. …
Wildland Fire Reburning Trends Across The Us West Suggest Only Short-Term Negative Feedback And Differing Climatic Effects, Brian Buma, Shelby A. Weiss, K. Hayes, Melissa S. Lucash
Wildland Fire Reburning Trends Across The Us West Suggest Only Short-Term Negative Feedback And Differing Climatic Effects, Brian Buma, Shelby A. Weiss, K. Hayes, Melissa S. Lucash
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Wildfires are a significant agent of disturbance in forests and highly sensitive to climate change. Short-interval fires and high severity (mortality-causing) fires in particular, may catalyze rapid and substantial ecosystem shifts by eliminating woody species and triggering conversions from forest to shrub or grassland ecosystems. Modeling and fine-scale observations suggest negative feedbacks between fire and fuels should limit reburn prevalence as overall fire frequency rises. However, while we have good information on reburning patterns for individual fires or small regions, the validity of scaling these conclusions to broad regions like the US West remains unknown. Both the prevalence of reburning …
Forests And Mental Health In South Africa: Panel Data Evidence, Dambala Gelo
Forests And Mental Health In South Africa: Panel Data Evidence, Dambala Gelo
Forest Collaborative Research
Slides from a presentation that examines the linkages between the green environment (urban forests, green open urban space) and mental health in South Africa. The author used representative panel data from the National Income Dynamics Survey, including the Center for Epidemiological Studies Short Depression Scale, to uncover these links.
Economics Of Afforestation: A Global Leadership Opportunity For Efd, Jeffrey R. Vincent
Economics Of Afforestation: A Global Leadership Opportunity For Efd, Jeffrey R. Vincent
Forest Collaborative Research
Slides from a presentation that examines the economics of afforestation and forest restoration in light of climatic changes, rising CO2 levels, carbon sequestration and other factors. Provides directions for further research, including retrospective analysis of previous afforestation projects, and targeted analysis of impediments to institutional investment in afforestation.
Concept Note: Mexico, Danae Hernandez, Alejandro López-Feldman, Fernanda Márquez-Padilla
Concept Note: Mexico, Danae Hernandez, Alejandro López-Feldman, Fernanda Márquez-Padilla
Forest Collaborative Research
Slides from a presentation that explores the connections between forest cover and deforestation on human health. The authors analyze medical records from the Mexican National Social Security Institute (IMSS) to determine the extent to which health outcomes are related to proximity to forests or deforested areas.
Forest And Health: China Case, Shilei Liu, Jintao Xu
Forest And Health: China Case, Shilei Liu, Jintao Xu
Forest Collaborative Research
Slides from a presentation that examines the relationship between ecosystem change and human health in China. The authors reviewed data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other sources to search for links between afforestation, forest protection and human health.
Widespread Severe Wildfires Under Climate Change Lead To Increased Forest Homogeneity In Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests, Brooke Alyce Cassell, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Matthew Hurteau, E. Louise Loudermilk
Widespread Severe Wildfires Under Climate Change Lead To Increased Forest Homogeneity In Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests, Brooke Alyce Cassell, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Matthew Hurteau, E. Louise Loudermilk
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed-conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire-prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results …
Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day
Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures …
Estimating The Present Value Of Carbon Sequestration In U.S. Forests, 2015–2050, For Evaluating Federal Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Robert T. Haight, Randall Bluffstone, Jeffrey D. Kline, John D. Coulston, David N. Wear, Kate Zook
Estimating The Present Value Of Carbon Sequestration In U.S. Forests, 2015–2050, For Evaluating Federal Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Robert T. Haight, Randall Bluffstone, Jeffrey D. Kline, John D. Coulston, David N. Wear, Kate Zook
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
We demonstrate an application evaluating carbon sequestration benefits from federal policy alternatives. Using detailed forest inventory data, we projected carbon sequestration outcomes in the coterminous 48 states for a baseline scenario and three policy scenarios through 2050. Alternatives included (1) reducing deforestation from development, (2) afforestation in the eastern United States and reforestation in the western United States, and (3) reducing stand-replacing wildfires. We used social cost of carbon estimates to evaluate the present value of carbon sequestration benefits gained with each policy. Results suggest that afforestation and reforestation would provide the greatest marginal increase in carbon benefit, far exceeding …
Fine-Scale Assessment Of Cross-Boundary Wildfire Events In The Western United States, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
Fine-Scale Assessment Of Cross-Boundary Wildfire Events In The Western United States, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
We report a fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events for the western US. We used simulation modeling to quantify the extent of fire exchange among major federal, state, and private land tenures and mapped locations where fire ignitions can potentially affect populated places. We examined how parcel size affects wildfire transmission and partitioned the relative amounts of transmitted fire between human and natural ignitions. We estimated that 85 % of the total predicted wildfire activity, as measured by area burned, originates from four land tenures (Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, private, and state lands) and 63 % of the …
Four-Fold Increase In Solar Forcing On Snow In Western U.S. Burned Forests Since 1999, Kelly E. Gleason, Joseph R. Mcconnell, Monica M. Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Wendy M. Calvin
Four-Fold Increase In Solar Forcing On Snow In Western U.S. Burned Forests Since 1999, Kelly E. Gleason, Joseph R. Mcconnell, Monica M. Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Wendy M. Calvin
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Forest fires are increasing across the American West due to climate warming and fire suppression. Accelerated snow melt occurs in burned forests due to increased light transmission through the canopy and decreased snow albedo from deposition of light-absorbing impurities. Using satellite observations, we document up to an annual 9% growth in western forests burned since 1984, and 5 day earlier snow disappearance persisting for >10 years following fire. Here, we show that black carbon and burned woody debris darkens the snowpack and lowers snow albedo for 15 winters following fire, using measurements of snow collected from seven forested sites that …
Spatial Factor Models For High-Dimensional And Large Spatial Data: An Application In Forest Variable Mapping, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez, Andrew O. Finley, Abhirup Datta, Chad Babcock, Hans-Erik Andersen, Bruce D. Cook, Douglas C. Morton, Sudipto Banerjee
Spatial Factor Models For High-Dimensional And Large Spatial Data: An Application In Forest Variable Mapping, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez, Andrew O. Finley, Abhirup Datta, Chad Babcock, Hans-Erik Andersen, Bruce D. Cook, Douglas C. Morton, Sudipto Banerjee
Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations
Gathering information about forest variables is an expensive and arduous activity. As such, directly collecting the data required to produce high-resolution maps over large spatial domains is infeasible. Next generation collection initiatives of remotely sensed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data are specifically aimed at producing complete-coverage maps over large spatial domains. Given that LiDAR data and forest characteristics are often strongly correlated, it is possible to make use of the former to model, predict, and map forest variables over regions of interest. This entails dealing with the high-dimensional (∼102 ) spatially dependent LiDAR outcomes over a large number …
Patterns And Drivers Of Recent Disturbances Across The Temperate Forest Biome, Andreas Sommerfeld, Cornelius Senf, Brian Buma, Anthony W. D'Amato, Tiphaine Despres, Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal, Shawn Fraver, Lee E. Frelich, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Sarah J. Hart, Brian J. Harvey, Hong S. He, Tomáš Hlásny, Andrés Holz, Multiple Additional Authors
Patterns And Drivers Of Recent Disturbances Across The Temperate Forest Biome, Andreas Sommerfeld, Cornelius Senf, Brian Buma, Anthony W. D'Amato, Tiphaine Despres, Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal, Shawn Fraver, Lee E. Frelich, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Sarah J. Hart, Brian J. Harvey, Hong S. He, Tomáš Hlásny, Andrés Holz, Multiple Additional Authors
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and …
Landscape Drivers Of Recent Fire Activity (2001- 2017) In South-Central Chile, David B. Mcwethy, Aníbal Pauchard, Rafeal García, Andrés Holz, Mauro E. Gonzales, Thomas T. Veblen, Julian Stahl, Bryce Currey
Landscape Drivers Of Recent Fire Activity (2001- 2017) In South-Central Chile, David B. Mcwethy, Aníbal Pauchard, Rafeal García, Andrés Holz, Mauro E. Gonzales, Thomas T. Veblen, Julian Stahl, Bryce Currey
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
In recent decades large fires have affected communities throughout central and southern Chile with great social and ecological consequences. Despite this high fire activity, the controls and drivers and the spatiotemporal pattern of fires are not well understood. To identify the large-scale trends and drivers of recent fire activity across six regions in south-central Chile (~32–40° S Latitude) we evaluated MODIS satellite-derived fire detections and compared this data with Chilean Forest Service records for the period 2001–2017. MODIS burned area estimates provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive record of fire activity across an important bioclimatic transition zone between dry Mediterranean …
Using Transboundary Wildfire Exposure Assessments To Improve Fire Management Programs: A Case Study In Greece, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Kostas Kalabokidis
Using Transboundary Wildfire Exposure Assessments To Improve Fire Management Programs: A Case Study In Greece, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Kostas Kalabokidis
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land …
More Than The Sum Of Its Parts: How Disturbance Interactions Shape Forest Dynamics Under Climate Change, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Brian R. Sturtevant, Eric J. Gustafson, Alec M. Kretchun, Jane R. Foster
More Than The Sum Of Its Parts: How Disturbance Interactions Shape Forest Dynamics Under Climate Change, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Brian R. Sturtevant, Eric J. Gustafson, Alec M. Kretchun, Jane R. Foster
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process-based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north-central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with …
The Economic Contribution Of Stewardship Contracting: Two Case Studies From The Mount Hood National Forest, Jean M. Daniels, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Nathan Poage
The Economic Contribution Of Stewardship Contracting: Two Case Studies From The Mount Hood National Forest, Jean M. Daniels, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Nathan Poage
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
We conducted an economic analysis of two case study stewardship contracts on the Mount Hood National Forest in western Oregon. Stewardship contracting has been embraced by some federal managers to achieve restoration goals while providing economic benefits to local communities. Little is known about economic contributions from stewardship contracts, including how they compare against Secure Rural Schools funding or the century-old payments to counties revenue sharing system. Using expenditure data from sale purchasers, contractors, and fiscal agents, we developed methodology to track spending and used IMPLAN software to estimate economic contributions and multipliers. Results showed that (1) commercial thinning, service …
Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure In The Southwestern United States, Alan A. Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Ana M.G. Barros
Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure In The Southwestern United States, Alan A. Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Ana M.G. Barros
Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
We assessed transboundary wildfire exposure among federal, state, and private lands and 447 communities in the state of Arizona, southwestern United States. The study quantified the relative magnitude of transboundary (incoming, outgoing) versus nontransboundary (i.e., self-burning) wildfire exposure based on land tenure or community of the simulated ignition and the resulting fire perimeter. We developed and described several new metrics to quantify and map transboundary exposure. We found that incoming transboundary fire accounted for 37% of the total area burned on large parcels of federal and state lands, whereas 63% of the area burned was burned by ignitions within the …
Northwest Forest Plan The First 20 Years (1994-2013): Watershed Condition Status And Trend, Stephanie A. Miller, Sean N. Gordon, Peter Eldred, Ronald M. Beloin, Steve Wilcox, Mark Raggon, Heidi Andersen, Ariel Muldoon
Northwest Forest Plan The First 20 Years (1994-2013): Watershed Condition Status And Trend, Stephanie A. Miller, Sean N. Gordon, Peter Eldred, Ronald M. Beloin, Steve Wilcox, Mark Raggon, Heidi Andersen, Ariel Muldoon
Institute for Sustainable Solutions Publications and Presentations
We used two data sets to evaluate stream and upslope/riparian condition for sixth-field watersheds in each aquatic province within the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area. The stream evaluation was based on stream sampling data collected from 2002 to the 2013 (214 watersheds) as part of an eight year repeating (rotating) sample design. We are currently halfway through our second rotation of stream sampling, and have repeated 110 watersheds since the second rotation began in 2009. The analysis presented in this report uses roughly half the number of watersheds as was originally intended by the sample design since re-visitation will not …
Divergent Trends In Ecosystem Services Under Different Climate-Management Futures In A Fire-Prone Forest Landscape, Joshua S. Halofsky, Jessica E. Halofsky, Miles A. Hemstrom, Anita T. Morzillo, Xiaoping Zhou, Daniel C. Donato
Divergent Trends In Ecosystem Services Under Different Climate-Management Futures In A Fire-Prone Forest Landscape, Joshua S. Halofsky, Jessica E. Halofsky, Miles A. Hemstrom, Anita T. Morzillo, Xiaoping Zhou, Daniel C. Donato
Institute for Natural Resources Publications
While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in …