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What Exactly Are You Inferring? A Closer Look At Hypothesis Testing, Mc Newman

VIMS Articles

This critical review describes the confused application of significance tests in environmental toxicology and chemistry that often produces incorrect inferences and indefensible regulatory decisions. Following a brief review of statistical testing theory, nine recommendations are put forward. The first is that confidence intervals be used instead of hypothesis tests whenever possible. The remaining recommendations are relevant if hypothesis tests are used. They are as follows: Define and justify Type I and II error rates a priori; set and justify an effect size a priori; do not confuse p(E vertical bar H-0) and p(H-0 vertical bar E); design tests permitting Positive …