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Articles 1 - 29 of 29
Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences
A Coupled Model Of Population, Poaching, And Economic Dynamics To Assess Rhino Conservation Through Legal Trade, Henry Doyle, Kylie Champagne, Ditto Rajpal, Grace Seebeck, David J. Gerberry
A Coupled Model Of Population, Poaching, And Economic Dynamics To Assess Rhino Conservation Through Legal Trade, Henry Doyle, Kylie Champagne, Ditto Rajpal, Grace Seebeck, David J. Gerberry
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Rhinoceros populations in Africa are in peril largely due to the high value of their horns and the poaching that ensues. The strategy of legalizing the international trade of rhino horn is receiving increased support among both the people and government officials in Africa. Many in the international conservation community remain opposed to the idea. The legalization strategy is straightforward in theory: legalizing the trade of rhino horn will introduce a large quantity of horn to the market, the increased supply will lead to lower prices for rhino horn, and lower prices will reduce the overall poaching pressure these animals …
Contrasting Tick Species Behaviors: A Course-Based Undergraduate Research Experience (Cure), Sara Benham, Shovan Dutta, Rohan Maddamsetti, Clayton Wright, Alena Anderson, David T. Gauthier, Holly D. Gaff
Contrasting Tick Species Behaviors: A Course-Based Undergraduate Research Experience (Cure), Sara Benham, Shovan Dutta, Rohan Maddamsetti, Clayton Wright, Alena Anderson, David T. Gauthier, Holly D. Gaff
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Tick-borne diseases are on the rise throughout the world, and there is a need to better understand tick behavior in order to identify potential new interventions. Ticks have a complex life history and can survive months off-host. There is a lack of large-scale data on off-host tick behavior, which leaves a gap in understanding of tick biology outside of tick-host interactions. Introducing undergraduate students to authentic research early in their studies can help prepare them for independent inquiry in upper-level classes. To address the student needs and fill gaps in tick research, students in introductory biology courses recorded observations of …
An Investigation Of Mitigation Measures On The Spread Of Covid-19 In A College Classroom Using Agent-Based Modeling, Saharsh Talwar, Anne E. Yust
An Investigation Of Mitigation Measures On The Spread Of Covid-19 In A College Classroom Using Agent-Based Modeling, Saharsh Talwar, Anne E. Yust
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
In this manuscript, we describe the process of using agent-based modeling in NetLogo to create a simulation of COVID-19 spread in a traditional college classroom. The model allows for an evaluation of different preventative measures implemented by the University of Pittsburgh, including the cohort classroom attendance model, mask and vaccine mandates, contact tracing, and classroom sanitation. Through the use of the model's interactive interface, the impact of adjusting specific measures by the institution could be visualized, providing a valuable tool for combating diseases that spread through droplet transmission.
Modeling The Population Demographics & Viability Of Imperiled Guzmania Monostachia Populations, Helen Pennington, Pranay Lingareddy, Erin N. Bodine
Modeling The Population Demographics & Viability Of Imperiled Guzmania Monostachia Populations, Helen Pennington, Pranay Lingareddy, Erin N. Bodine
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Guzmania monostachia is a large, long-lived bromeliad whose leaves grow in a rosette pattern and is native to the Americas, but endangered in Florida due to damage caused by the invasive weevil Metamasius callizona. Each G. monostachia rosette can reproduce sexually via flowers or asexually by producing clonal offshoot rosettes. We model the population dynamics and demographic structure of a G. monostachia population using a Lefkovitch matrix model where each state represents a demographic class of rosettes. Model analysis over a range of uncertain parameters show the conditions under which a G. monostachia population is viable in the absence …
A Statistical Analysis Of The Change In Age Distribution Of Spawning Hatchery Salmon, Rachel Macaulay, Emily Barrett, Grace Penunuri, Eli E. Goldwyn
A Statistical Analysis Of The Change In Age Distribution Of Spawning Hatchery Salmon, Rachel Macaulay, Emily Barrett, Grace Penunuri, Eli E. Goldwyn
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Declines in salmon sizes have been reported primarily as a result of younger maturation rates. This change in age distribution poses serious threats to salmon-dependent peoples and ecological systems. We perform a statistical analysis to examine the change in age structure of spawning Alaskan chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha using 30 years of hatchery data. To highlight the impacts of this change, we investigate the average number of fry/smolt that each age of spawning chum/Chinook salmon produce. Our findings demonstrate an increase in younger hatchery salmon populations returning to spawn, and fewer amounts of fry produced …
A Dynamical System Model Of Dengue Transmission For Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, Gregory Schmidt, Benjamin Whipple, Vinodh Chellamuthu, Xiaoxia Xie
A Dynamical System Model Of Dengue Transmission For Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, Gregory Schmidt, Benjamin Whipple, Vinodh Chellamuthu, Xiaoxia Xie
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The dengue virus is a serious concern in many parts of the world, including Brazil. As data indicates, a prominent vector for dengue is the mosquito Aedes aegypti. By using the dengue incidence records from the Brazilian SINAN database, we estimate the population of A. aegypti within the city of Rio de Janeiro. Using historical climate data for Rio de Janeiro and the computed population estimates, we extend an existing model for the population dynamics of mosquitoes to incorporate precipitation in aquatic stages of development for A. aegypti.
Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug
Hepatitis B And D: A Forecast On Actions Needed To Reduce Incidence And Achieve Elimination, Scott Greenhalgh, Andrew Klug
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Viral hepatitis negatively affects the health of millions, with the worst health outcomes associated with the hepatitis D virus (HDV). Fortunately, HDV is rare and requires prior infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) before it can establish infection and transmit. Here, we develop a mathematical model of HBV and HDV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa to investigate the effects of hepatitis B vaccination on both HBV and HDV. Our findings illustrate a hepatitis B vaccination rate above 0.006 year-1 reduces hepatitis D by over 90%, and a vaccination rate above 0.0221 year-1 reduces hepatitis B by over 90%, …
Analysis Of Sir Epidemic Models With Sociological Phenomenon, Robert F. Allen, Katherine C. Heller, Matthew A. Pons
Analysis Of Sir Epidemic Models With Sociological Phenomenon, Robert F. Allen, Katherine C. Heller, Matthew A. Pons
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological differences. We compute the basic reproduction number for each model, as well as analyze the sensitivity of R0 to changes in sociological parameter values.
Effective Dose Fractionation Schemes Of Radiotherapy For Prostate Cancer, Jose Alvarez, Kathleen M. Storey, Pavitra Kannan, Heyrim Cho
Effective Dose Fractionation Schemes Of Radiotherapy For Prostate Cancer, Jose Alvarez, Kathleen M. Storey, Pavitra Kannan, Heyrim Cho
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Radiation therapy remains as one of the main cancer treatment modalities. Typical regimens for radiotherapy comprise a constant dose administered on weekdays, and no radiation on weekends. In this paper, we examine adaptive dosages of radiation treatment strategies for heterogeneous tumors using a dynamical system model that consist of radiation-resistant and parental populations with unique interactive properties, namely, PC3 and DU145 prostate cancer cell lines. We show that stronger doses of radiation given in longer time intervals, while keeping the overall dosage the same, are effective in PC3 cell lines, but not in DU145 cell lines. In addition, we tested …
A Study Of Covid-19 Mortality Under Varying Patient Frailty, Alison Sifuentes, Olcay Akman, Daniel Hrozencik
A Study Of Covid-19 Mortality Under Varying Patient Frailty, Alison Sifuentes, Olcay Akman, Daniel Hrozencik
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
For this study, we modeled the spread and mortality of COVID-19 throughout the city of Chicago. By incorporating group frailty into a classic SEIR infectious disease model, we were able to differentiate the population of Chicago by their response to COVID-19. Three age groups with different COVID-19-induced death rates were examined, and the model sought to showcase the multiplicative deviation of each age group death rate from the average disease-induced death rate. This adjustment for different death rates among age groups accounted for heterogeneity within the population, and sought to introduce a more accurate manner for modeling the spread of …
Kleptoparasitic Hawk-Dove Games, Isabella H. Evans-Riester, Chasity T. Kay, Karina L. Ortiz-Suarez, Jan Rychtář, Dewey Taylor
Kleptoparasitic Hawk-Dove Games, Isabella H. Evans-Riester, Chasity T. Kay, Karina L. Ortiz-Suarez, Jan Rychtář, Dewey Taylor
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The Hawk-Dove game is a classical game-theoretical model of potentially aggressive animal conflicts. In this paper, we apply game theory to a population of foraging animals that may engage in stealing food from one another. We assume that the population is composed of two types of individuals, Hawks and Doves. Hawks try to escalate encounters into aggressive contests while Doves engage in non-aggressive displays between themselves or concede to aggressive Hawks. The fitness of each type depends upon various natural parameters, such as food density, the mean handling time of a food item, as well as the mean times of …
A Dynamic Energy Budget Model Of Ornate Box Turtle Shell Growth, Tyler Skorczewski, Brandon Andersen
A Dynamic Energy Budget Model Of Ornate Box Turtle Shell Growth, Tyler Skorczewski, Brandon Andersen
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Many aspects of box turtle development may depend on size rather than age. Notable examples include sexual maturity and the development of the fully closing hinge in the shell that allows box turtles to completely hide in their shells. Thus, it is important to understand how turtles grow in order to have a complete understanding of turtle biology. Previous studies show that turtle shell growth behaves in a logistic manner. These studies use functional models that fit the data well but do little to explain mechanisms. In this work we use the ideas found in dynamic energy budget theory to …
Flattening The Curve: The Effects Of Intervention Strategies During Covid-19, Kelly A. Reagan, Rachel J. Pryor, Gonzalo M. Bearman, David M. Chan
Flattening The Curve: The Effects Of Intervention Strategies During Covid-19, Kelly A. Reagan, Rachel J. Pryor, Gonzalo M. Bearman, David M. Chan
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
COVID-19 has plagued countries worldwide due to its infectious nature. Social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are two main strategies employed to prevent its spread. A SIR model with a time-dependent transmission rate is implemented to examine the effect of social distancing and PPE use in hospitals. These strategies’ effect on the size and timing of the peak number of infectious individuals are examined as well as the total number of individuals infected by the epidemic. The effect on the epidemic of when social distancing is relaxed is also examined. Overall, social distancing was shown to …
Impulse Vaccination Model For The Control Of Devil Facial Tumor Disease, Zachary Bobbitt, Timothy Comar, Megan O. Powell, Catherine Roberts, Nicholas Schneider, Teagen Smith
Impulse Vaccination Model For The Control Of Devil Facial Tumor Disease, Zachary Bobbitt, Timothy Comar, Megan O. Powell, Catherine Roberts, Nicholas Schneider, Teagen Smith
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is a cancer that affects Tasmanian devils and that has caused the devil population to grossly decline since 1996. We present an SEIVR model to explore if recent advances in DFTD vaccines can help the wild population recover. Considering both and bi-annual impulse of vaccinating wild devils through food drops and introducing vaccinated captive-bred devils into the population, we explore the vaccine efficacy, percent of healthy devils receiving the vaccine, and years of campaign necessary for the devil population to have a long-term recovery. Based on our initial parameter estimations, we find a stable population …
Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz
Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …
Period Estimation And Noise In A Neutrally Stable Stochastic Oscillator, Kevin R. Sanft, Ben F. M. Intoy
Period Estimation And Noise In A Neutrally Stable Stochastic Oscillator, Kevin R. Sanft, Ben F. M. Intoy
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The periods of the orbits for the well-mixed cyclic three-species Lotka-Volterra model far away from the fixed point are studied. For finite system sizes, a discrete stochastic approach is employed and periods are found via wavelet analysis. As the system size is increased, a hierarchy of approximations ranging from Poisson noise to Gaussian noise to deterministic models are utilized. Based on the deterministic equations, a mathematical relationship between a conserved quantity of the model and the period of the population oscillations is found. Exploiting this property we then study the deterministic conserved quantity and period noise in finite size systems.
A Demographic Model Of An Endangered Florida Native Bromeliad (Tillandsia Utriculata), Zoe S. Brookover, Alexandra M. Campbell, Brian D. Christman, Sydney L. Davis, Erin N. Bodine
A Demographic Model Of An Endangered Florida Native Bromeliad (Tillandsia Utriculata), Zoe S. Brookover, Alexandra M. Campbell, Brian D. Christman, Sydney L. Davis, Erin N. Bodine
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The large, long-lived, epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia utriculata is currently listed as state-endangered in Florida due to significant population reduction from predation by an invasive weevil, Metamasius callizona. We have developed a novel demographic model of a population of T. utriculata in Myakka River State Park (MRSP) in Sarasota, Florida using a stage-structured matrix model. Analysis of the model revealed conditions for population viability over a variety of parameter scenarios. Model analysis showed that without weevil predation the minimum germination rate required for population viability is low (4–16%), and that given a viable population at structural equilibrium we would expect …
A Milestone For Spora, Editorial Board
A Milestone For Spora, Editorial Board
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
With the sixth volume, Spora is entering its next phase. The Editorial Board is happy to expand the journal's role in disseminating work conducted by research groups with at least one student author. With the new emphasis on student-driven research, Spora welcomes submissions related to Ph.D. dissertations, master's theses, and undergraduate research projects.
Introducing Volume 4, Editorial Board
Introducing Volume 4, Editorial Board
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This report provides a brief introduction to Spora and what you can expect from the articles included in this volume.
Welcome To Volume 5, Editorial Board
Welcome To Volume 5, Editorial Board
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Spora is entering its sixth year with an expanded and evolved focus on publishing a broad spectrum of articles in mathematical biology. Starting with the new volume, manuscripts from student-driven research projects will be considered as long as at least one author is a doctoral, master's, or undergraduate student.
Analysis Of An Agent-Based Model For Predicting The Behavior Of Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys Nobilis) Under The Influence Of Acoustic Deterrence, Craig Garzella, Joseph Gaudy, Karl R. B. Schmitt, Arezu Mansuri
Analysis Of An Agent-Based Model For Predicting The Behavior Of Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys Nobilis) Under The Influence Of Acoustic Deterrence, Craig Garzella, Joseph Gaudy, Karl R. B. Schmitt, Arezu Mansuri
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are an invasive, voracious, highly fecund species threatening the ecological integrity of the Great Lakes. This agent-based model and analysis explore bighead carp behavior in response to acoustic deterrence in an effort to discover properties that increase likelihood of deterrence system failure. Results indicate the most significant (p < 0.05) influences on barrier failure are the quantity of detritus and plankton behind the barrier, total number of bighead carp successfully deterred by the barrier, and number of native fishes freely moving throughout the simulation. Quantity of resources behind the barrier influence bighead carp to penetrate when populations are resource deprived. When native fish populations are low, an accumulation of phytoplankton can occur, increasing the likelihood of an algal bloom occurrence. Findings of this simulation suggest successful implementation with proper maintenance of an acoustic deterrence system has potential of abating the threat of bighead carp on ecological integrity of the Great Lakes.
Combating Tuberculosis: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis To Develop Strategies For Treatment And Prevention, Kendall B. Clark, Mayleen Cortez, Cristian Hernandez, Beth E. Thomas, Allison L. Lewis
Combating Tuberculosis: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis To Develop Strategies For Treatment And Prevention, Kendall B. Clark, Mayleen Cortez, Cristian Hernandez, Beth E. Thomas, Allison L. Lewis
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Although many organizations throughout the world have worked tirelessly to control tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, no country has yet been able to eradicate the disease completely. We present two compartmental models representing the spread of a TB epidemic through a population. The first is a general TB model; the second is an adaptation for regions in which HIV is prevalent, accounting for the effects of TB/HIV co-infection. Using active subspaces, we conduct time-dependent sensitivity analysis on both models to explore the significance of certain parameters with respect to the spread of TB. We use the results of this sensitivity analysis to …
Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell
Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Studies done on interactions between spores and macrophages done in vitro show inconsistent results based on experimental protocol and inhibit meaningful extrapolation to in vivo. In this study, we perform a sensitivity analysis of a model representing in vitro studies of interactions between anthrax spores and macrophages to help address the effects of these inconsistencies. We perform both local and global analyses using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients. Our analysis indicates the amount of intracellular bacteria over time is most sensitive to the killing of intracellular bacteria by the macrophages and replication of the bacteria inside …
Introducing Volume 3, Editorial Board
Introducing Volume 3, Editorial Board
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This report provides a brief introduction to Spora and what you can expect from the articles included in this volume.
Stochastic Analysis Of A Mammalian Circadian Clock Model: Small Protein Number Effects, David W. Morgens, Blerta Shtylla
Stochastic Analysis Of A Mammalian Circadian Clock Model: Small Protein Number Effects, David W. Morgens, Blerta Shtylla
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The circadian clock, responsible for coordinating organism function with daily and seasonal changes in the day-night cycle, is controlled by a complex protein network that constitutes a robust biochemical oscillator. Deterministic ordinary differential equation models have been used extensively to model the behavior of these central clocks. However, due to the small number of proteins involved in the circadian oscillations, mathematical models that track stochastic variations in the numbers of clock proteins may reveal more complex and biologically relevant behaviors. In this paper, we compare the response of a robust yet detailed deterministic model for the mammalian circadian clock with …
Examining The Electrical Excitation, Calcium Signaling, And Mechanical Contraction Cycle In A Heart Cell, Kristen Deetz, Nygel Foster, Darius Leftwich, Chad Meyer, Shalin Patel, Carlos Barajas, Matthias K. Gobbert, Zana Coulibaly
Examining The Electrical Excitation, Calcium Signaling, And Mechanical Contraction Cycle In A Heart Cell, Kristen Deetz, Nygel Foster, Darius Leftwich, Chad Meyer, Shalin Patel, Carlos Barajas, Matthias K. Gobbert, Zana Coulibaly
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
As the leading cause of death in the United States, heart disease has become a principal concern in modern society. Cardiac arrhythmias can be caused by a dysregulation of calcium dynamics in cardiomyocytes. Calcium dysregulation, however, is not yet fully understood and is not easily predicted; this provides motivation for the subsequent research. Excitation-contraction coupling (ECC) is the process through which cardiomyocytes undergo contraction from an action potential. Calcium induced calcium release (CICR) is the mechanism through which electrical excitation is coupled with mechanical contraction through calcium signaling. The study of the interplay between electrical excitation, calcium signaling, and mechanical …
Age-Structured And Vaccination Models Of Devil Facial Tumor Disease, Christopher D. Bruno, Timothy Comar, Megan O. Powell, Adjo Tameklo
Age-Structured And Vaccination Models Of Devil Facial Tumor Disease, Christopher D. Bruno, Timothy Comar, Megan O. Powell, Adjo Tameklo
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Tasmanian devil populations have been devastated by devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) since its first appearance in 1996. The average lifespan of a devil has decreased from six years to three years. We present an age-structured model to represent how the disease has affected the age and breeding structures of the population. We show that with the recent increase in the breeding of juvenile devils, the overall devil population will increase but not nearly to pre-DFTD levels. The basic reproductive number may be increased with the influx of young breeding devils. In addition, our model shows that the release of …
Modeling Aggregation Of Proliferating Microglia In Response To Amyloid-Beta In Dementia, Adrienne C. Kinney, Ellen R. Swanson
Modeling Aggregation Of Proliferating Microglia In Response To Amyloid-Beta In Dementia, Adrienne C. Kinney, Ellen R. Swanson
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Amyloid-beta plaques are prominent biological markers in dementia brains. In response to plaque formation, the brain's immune cells, microglia, become reactive. Microglia are measurable cells that surround amyloid-beta plaques, indicating their location. A system of partial differential equations describes the concentration of microglia in dementia brains by incorporating chemotactic signaling. However, this system fails to incorporate increasing numbers of reactive microglia cells in response to amyloid-beta aggregation. A system of ordinary differential equations describing the number of significant cells and proteins in the brain suggests the amount of reactive microglia increases significantly during the progression of dementia. We couple these …
Modeling And Analysis Of Germ Layer Formations Using Finite Dynamical Systems, Alexander Garza, Megan Eberle, Eric A. Eager
Modeling And Analysis Of Germ Layer Formations Using Finite Dynamical Systems, Alexander Garza, Megan Eberle, Eric A. Eager
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The development of an embryo from a fertilised egg to a multicellular organism proceeds through numerous steps, with the formation of the three germ layers (endoderm, mesoderm, ectoderm) being one of the first. In this paper we study the mesendoderm (the tissue that collectively gives rise to both mesoderm and endoderm) gene regulatory network for two species, \textit{Xenopus laevis} and the axolotl (\textit{Ambystoma mexicanum}) using Boolean networks. We find that previously-established bistability found in these networks can be reproduced using this Boolean framework, provided that some assumptions used in previously-published differential equations models are relaxed. We conclude by discussing our …