Life Sciences Commons^™

Crop Production Simulation And Analysis Of Climate Scenarios Based On The Apsim Model For The Long Term Run Of The Western Loess Plateau, Xuan Yang, Yuying Shen

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

The APSIM model is an effective tool for making decisions on agricultural management. The model can simulate the biophysical process in farming systems, particularly economic and ecological features of the systems under climatic risk (Keating et al. 1998). The APSIM model has previously been used in the Loess Plateau (Tan, 2007; Chen et al. 2008). Based on climate data from the Loess Plateau from 1961-2010, we simulated three commonly grown crops, wheat, maize and lucerne. Additionally, by applying three climate change scenarios, we attempted to determine the production risk in the future, and gain an understanding of the …

Identifying Target Traits For Forage Grass Breeding Under A Changing Climate In Norway Using The Basgra Model, Mats Höglind, Tomas Persson, Marcel Van Oijen

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Grass-based dairy and livestock production constitutes the most important agricultural sector in Norway in economic terms, and 60% of the agricultural land in Norway is used for grass production. Climate change may have consider-able impact on the survival and productivity of grasslands, with consequences for the local supply of forage to live-stock, farmers’ income and the supply of dairy- and livestock-based food products to the global market. Farmers can adapt to climate change by choosing different grass species or cultivars or by changing management practices such as the timing and frequency of harvests. Plant breeders select new cultivars of grasses …

Climagie: A French Inra Project To Adapt The Grasslands To Climate Change, Jean-Louis Durand, Jérome Enjalbert, Laurent Hazard, Isabelle Litrico, Catherine Picon-Cochard, Marie-Pascale Prudhomme, Florence Volaire

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Climate change in France, central and southern Europe is expected to provoke more frequent and more intense summer water deficits, with increased amplitude in temperatures, exposing the same perennial crops to frosts as well as to heat waves and severe droughts. The impacts on sown monospecific grasslands have been assessed using crop models (Durand et al. 2010) but with less accuracy in extreme situations. Since less work has been done on intra-specific genetic variability there is urgent need to investigate both ranges of climate conditions and genetic variability (Poirier et al. 2012). Phenology and plant productivity responses to …

Data Integration And Modelling For The Assessment Of Future Climate Change Impacts On Natural Pasturelands Of The Alps, Camilla Dibari, Giovanni Argenti, Marco Moriondo, Marco Bindi

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Evidence shows that in the last century in the Alps area warming was roughly three times the global average and, according to future projections, this trend is expected to worsen in the next decades. Moreover, the species-rich permanent grasslands characterizing the marginal areas of the Alpine landscape are acknowledged as very sensitive and vulnerable ecosystems to climate change (IPCC 2007). So far several studies have investigated the climate effects only on specific Alpine grassland species at a very small scale, while a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on Alpine mountain grasslands distribution and composition at a territorial …

Climate Changes And Trends In Phenology Of Woody And Herb Plants In Inner Mongolia, 1981–2010, Yurong Wei, Yanfang Cao, Zhicun Wang, Xuebiao Pan

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

The phenology of plants is a comprehensive reflection of seasonal climatological and ecological conditions and may be used as an indicator of climate change (Thomas et al. 2000; Volker and Annette 2004; Li et al. 2005). Analysis was made of the dates of sprouting, flowering and defoliating of woody and herb plants observed on 24 Agricultural Meteorological Stations in Inner Mongolia, China from 1980 to 2010. To assess the potential future change data was analysed for the 2011 to 2050 period using the England Hadley Climate Centre scenario (Wei et al. 2012).

Precipitation Pattern Change Influence On Vegetation Of Xilingol Grassland In Inner Mongolia, China, Wulanbter, Yurong Wei, Pengtao Liu, Xirong Jiang

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

The Xilingol grassland covers the region bounded by 41’09”–45’31” N and 111’14”–118’25” E. It is representative of a typical steppe in northern China, with the major native grass species present being Aneurolepidium chinense and Stipa spp. However these grasslands have become increasingly degraded due to desertification and/or the impacts of human activities resulting in the previous climax plant community becoming substantially altered.

In the Xilingol League most weather station started observations around 1960 (earliest 1952), however, grassland phenology and biomass measurement only started in 1980. The growing season runs from the 1st May to the 30th September. Between 1961-2010, the …

Assessing Resilience Of Pasture Production To Climatic Changes, Brendan R. Cullen, Richard P. Rawnsley, Richard J. Eckard

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Increasing temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations, together with changes to rainfall patterns, will influence seasonal pasture production; however climate change projections for south eastern Australia are uncertain (CSIRO and BoM 2007). Despite this, climate change impact assessments generally rely on specific climate projections, but in this study an alternative approach was developed to test the resilience of production to incremental changes in climate.

Impacts Of Projected Climate Change On Pasture Growth And Safe Carrying Capacities For Three Extensive Grazing Land Regions In Northern Australia, Giselle L. Whish, Robyn A. Cowley, Lester I. Pahl, Joe C. Scanlan, Neil D. Macleod

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

The northern beef industry is a major component of the regional economies of Queensland, Northern Territory and northern Western Australia, and has contributed an estimated $5 billion to Australia’s economy in 2009-10. Projected climate change will have an adverse impact on Australia’s agricultural production (McKeon et al. 2008) with an expected 3.5% decline in beef production in northern Australia by 2030 (Heyhoe et al. 2008). The GRASP pasture production model (McKeon et al. 2000) has been used to evaluate impacts of climate change in Australia’s rangelands (Crimp et al. 2002, McKeon et al. 2008), with …

Impact On Grassland Biomass From Climate Warming And Drying, Suying Li, Li Yang

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

It is becoming increasingly urgent to assess the impact of climate change on grassland biomass due to the important role these grasslands play in animal production. The typical steppe in Xilinhot of Inner Mongolia is the most representative vegetation types in the temperate grasslands of the northern China. One means to determine climate change is using the Aridity index (AI, also referred to as the dry degree of climate in this article) that is based on both temperature and precipitation (Arora 2002; Bannayan et al.. 2010; Nastos et al. 2012). The objective of this paper was to indicate how …

Future Climate Change Impacts On Pasture Biomass In Mongolia, Erdenetsetseg Baasandai, Erdenetuya Magsar

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

The main objective of this study is to estimate pasture biomass changes in Mongolia using the simulation model CENTURY. For the study framework we used the fenced pasture biomass data from 1960’s to 2008, over 60 meteorological stations and simulation data of the carbon, nitrogen, aboveground and belowground biomass, potential evapotranspiration, evaporation, transpiration and precipitation data across these grasslands. The simulated climatic and other parameters were estimated meteorological station based and their differences between 2 time periods were calculated. With purpose to make comparison of the present situation to the future situation used Climate Change Scenarios under A2, A1B and …

Comparative Analysis Of Climate Change Adaptation Options Across The Southern Australian Livestock Industry, Afshin Ghahramani, Andrew D. Moore

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Climate change is predicted to have a substantial negative effect on the productivity of grasslands across southern Australia (Moore and Ghahramani 2013). We used the GRAZPLAN biophysical simulation models to assess several possible grassland management and animal genetic improvement adaptations under SRES A2 climate change scenario. Simulations spanned the five dimensions of geography, time, global circulation models, enterprise, and adaptations. Impact of climate change was predicted to reduce profitability of livestock industry by 46%, 58%, and 72% at 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively. Increasing soil fertility could return the average profitability of five livestock enterprises to its historical level at …

Modelling Adaptation And Mitigation Strategies For Southern Livestock Industries Of Australia, Richard J. Eckard, Richard P. Rawnsley, Brendan R. Cullen, Matthew Bell, Karen Christie

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Climate change will impact on the Australian grazing industries both through mitigation policies and the impact of warmer temperatures, increased atmospheric CO₂ and changed rainfall patterns (Cullen et al. 2009; Eckard et al. 2010). Mechanistic models are useful tools to inform our understanding of the complex interactions between future climates and the soil, plant, animal and management in livestock production systems.

This paper summarises the results of a number of whole farm systems modelling studies investigating likely impacts of climate change, adaptation options and emissions implications for livestock production in southern Australia.

Challenges And Opportunities For Improving Eco-Efficiency Of Tropical Forage-Based Systems To Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Michael Peters, Mario Herrero, Myles Fish, Karl-Heinz Erb, Idupulapati M. Rao, Guntur V. Subbarao, Aracely Castro, Jacobo Arango, Julian Chará, Enrique Murgueitio, Rein Van Der Hoek, Peter Läderach, Glenn Hyman, Jeimar Tapasco, Bernardo Strassburg, Birthe K. Paul, Alvaro Rincón, Rainer Schultze-Kraft, Steve Fonte, Timothy Searchinger

IGC Proceedings (1997-2023)

Forage-based livestock production plays a key role in national and regional economies, for food security and poverty alleviation. Livestock production is also considered as a major contributor to agricultural GHG emissions, however. While demand for livestock products is predicted to continue to increase, there is political and societal pressure both to reduce environmental impacts and to convert some of the pasture area to alternative uses such as crop production and environmental conservation. Thus it is essential to develop approaches for sustainable intensification of livestock systems to mitigate GHG emissions, addressing biophysical, socioeconomic and policy challenges. This paper highlights the potential …