Tax Law Commons^™

Macroeconomic Modeling Of Tax Policy: A Comparison Of Current Methodologies, Itai Grinberg, Alan J. Auerbach, Thomas A. Barthold, Nicholas Bull, W. Gavin Elkins, Pamela J. Moomau, Rachel Moore, Benjamin Page, Brandon Pecoraro, Kyle Pomerleau

Alan J. Auerbach

The macroeconomic effects of tax reform are a subject of significant discussion and controversy. In 2015, the House of Representatives adopted a new “dynamic scoring” rule requiring a point estimate within the budget window of the deficit effect due to the macroeconomic response to certain proposed tax legislation. The revenue estimates provided by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for major tax bills often play a critical role in Congressional deliberations and public discussion of those bills. The JCT has long had macroeconomic analytic capability, and in recent years, responding to Congress’ interest in macrodynamic estimates for …