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Modeling Median Will-Cost Estimates For Defense Acquisition Programs, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay Koschnick, Brandon Lucas
Modeling Median Will-Cost Estimates For Defense Acquisition Programs, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay Koschnick, Brandon Lucas
Faculty Publications
Purpose: The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.
Design/methodology/approach: Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS …