Law Commons^™

Exploring Performance In Air Force Science And Technology Programs, Eric A. Plack, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick

Faculty Publications

Science and technology (S&T) programs serve an important function in the defense acquisition process as the initial phase leading to discovery and development of warfighting technology. The results of these programs impact the larger major defense acquisition programs, which integrate the technologies in subsequent phases of the life cycle. Despite this important role, little prior research has examined the performance of S&T programs. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of technological maturation as a critical success factor in Air Force S&T programs. The results suggest that S&T programs with mature technologies are more likely to experience above average …

Use Of Factors In Development Estimates: Improving The Cost Analysis Toolkit, Matthew R. Markman, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Factor Estimating is a technique commonly used by defense acquisition analysts to develop cost estimations. However, previous studies developing factors for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase of the life cycle are limited. This research expands the current toolkit for cost analysts by developing cost factors in previously unexplored areas. More specifically, over 400 cost reports are utilized to create new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and Service. The factors are developed for those elements that are common in a wide array of projects such as program …

Contractual Procurement Alternatives Of Air Force Contingency Pharmaceuticals: A Cost-Benefit Analysis, Adam J. Brubakken, John M. Dickens, Jason Andrerson, William A. Cunningham Iii

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to explore effective supply chain principles, through the theory of transaction cost economics, as measures to improve current contingency pharmaceutical item shortfalls in the Air Force Medical Service (AFMS) Contingency Pharmaceutical Programme. Design/methodology/approach — In this research, AFMS contingency pharmaceutical data was collected from various databases, including the Joint Medical Asset Repository, Medical Contingency Requirements Workflow and the Medical Requirements List. Through the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, alternative sourcing and fulfilment practices are evaluated. Findings — The findings of this research indicate that the application of centralized purchasing principles, in an effort to leverage prime …

Analysis Of Military Construction Cost Growth In Usaf Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Emily E. Angell, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Alfred E. Thal Jr.

Faculty Publications

This study uses descriptive and inferential statistics to identify cost growth Analysis of Military Construction of military construction (MILCON) at the programmatic level, while bridging the gap between Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) estimates and actual project costs. Findings of this study aid the cost community with appropriate allocation of resources in developing these estimates. Overall, Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) appear to experience more negative growth (cost savings) in MILCON estimates on reviewed SARs— typically less than 0.2% of the total program cost. SAR estimates became more accurate from the first to last SAR in comparison to the total MILCON …

A Case For Open Mission Systems In Dod Aircraft Avionics, Michael J. Brown, R. David Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The DOD is adopting open mission systems (OMS) as the future in the military aviation environment. OMS proponents promise reduced costs and truncated schedules through increased competition in the marketplace and reduced coding efforts. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have examined the success of these open architectures in the DOD. Therefore, we investigate costs and schedule for a recent DOD avionics OMS demonstration platform in comparison to 13 historically analogous programs.

Text Mining Analysis Of Acquisition Reforms And Expert Views, Amanda L. Mcgowin, Jonathan D. Ritschel, R. David Fass, Bradley C. Boehmke

Faculty Publications

Legislation, in the form of acquisition reforms, is historically enacted to address perceived cost, schedule, and performance problems in the defense acquisition system. Text mining is utilized to examine five major reforms and a compendium of views from 32 acquisition experts to identify commonalities and disconnects.

Cyber War And Deterrence: Applying A General Theoretical Framework, Isaac Nacita [*], Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

There is a saying that politicians and generals are always fighting the last war, which is emphasized when the weapons and characteristics of warfare are changing rapidly. However, if this is true, it is often not due to an inability to learn lessons from previous conflicts, but to “overlearn” or overcompensate for the failures and experiences of the past. In reality, this is not a learning problem but one of forming poor implications from historical events, which leads to poor applications of doctrine the next time around. The DOD now acknowledges that warfare has extended into cyberspace, and it is …

Likelihood And Cost Impact Of Engineering Change Requirements For Dod Contracts, James C. Ellis, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine, Brandon Lucas, Ian S. Cordell

Faculty Publications

Purpose: There appears to be no empirical-based method in the literature for estimating if an engineering change proposal (ECP) will occur or the dollar amount incurred. This paper aims to present an empirically based approach to address this shortfall.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the cost assessment data enterprise database, 533 contracts were randomly selected via a stratified sampling plan to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP and the other to determine the expected median per cent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP was likely. Both models adopted a stepwise approach. A …

Estimating An Acquisition Program’S Likelihood Of Staying Within Cost And Schedule Bounds, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Program managers use prior experience to spot potential programmatic areas of concern. Augmenting this experience, the authors present an empirical procedure to estimate the likelihood of a program not exceeding two schedule and cost thresholds: (a) 15 percent of the initial total acquisition cost estimate from Milestone (MS) B to Initial Operating Capability (IOC); and (b) 15 percent of the estimated length (in months) between MS B and IOC—the second bound being 25 percent of the cost and schedule estimate. Using logistic regression and odds ratios, the authors analyze 49 Department of Defense programs and generally find that electronic system …

Modeling Median Will-Cost Estimates For Defense Acquisition Programs, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay Koschnick, Brandon Lucas

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.

Design/methodology/approach: Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS …

Analyzing Cost Growth At Program Stages For Dod Aircraft, Scott J. Kozlak, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon Lucas, Michael J. Seibel

Faculty Publications

This research examines Cost Growth Factors (CGF) at various program stages for 30 Department of Defense aircraft programs. From Milestone (MS) B, the authors determine CGFs at the Critical Design Review (CDR), First Flight (FF), Development Test and Evaluation End, Initial Operational Capability (IOC), and Full Operational Capability. They find development CGFs are significantly larger than procurement CGFs. Additionally, cost growth primarily occurs early in the program. At CDR, which occurs on average at the 12 percent completion point of a program, aircraft programs had already experienced on average 15 percent of their total program cost growth. The first spike …

The Myth Of Strategic And Tactical Airlift, Jacob D. Maywald, Adam D. Reiman, Alan A. Johnson, Robert E. Overstreet

Faculty Publications

In the 21st century, our ability to quickly and decisively deliver combat forces and equipment is of the utmost importance in achieving our national security objectives. The swiftness and flexibility of the US Air Force’s mobility airlift fleet is the key to executing a rapid global mobility strategy. The operational effectiveness and efficiency of military air transportation relies on the expertise and intuition of Air Mobility Command’s (AMC) mobility planners. Working in coordination with the United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) and geographic combatant commands (GCC), AMC is responsible for the tasking and tracking of almost 900 daily mobility sorties worldwide. …

Brandishing Our Air, Space, And Cyber Swords: Recommendations For Deterrence And Beyond, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

This article examines how the nation could better prepare to deter aggressive action in space and cyberspace, and if necessary, prevail should deterrence fail. The key themes throughout this article include a strong need for space and cyber situational awareness, the need for an international attribution and escalation framework, and a national investment in space and cyber education, along with an updated national strategy and military doctrine. Although related, this article focuses on deterrence and avoids the topic of cyber coercion.

Acquisition Challenge: The Importance Of Incompressibility In Comparing Learning Curve Models, Justin R. Moore, John J. Elshaw, Adedeji B. Badiru, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly …

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …

Investigation Into The Ratio Of Operating And Support Costs To Life-Cycle Costs For Dod Weapon Systems, Gary L. Jones, Edward D. White, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

Recent legislation, such as the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, requires a renewed emphasis on understanding Operating and Support (O&S) costs. Conventional wisdom within the acquisition community suggests a 70:30 cost ratio with respect to O&S and acquisition of an average weapon system. Using 37 Air Force and Navy programs, the authors estimate the mean overall ratio of O&S costs to acquisition costs to be closer to 55:45, although many weapon systems displayed significant deviation from this 55 percent average. Contributing factors such as life expectancy and acquisition strategy (i.e., new system or modification) affect this variance. Their …

Defense Contractor Buyer-Seller Relationships: Theoretical Approaches, Carl R. Templin

Faculty Publications

This article examines the applicability of three theoretical approaches to defining defense buyer-seller relationships. Economic Free-Market Theory explains the relative economic power of the participants but ignores the legal, political, and socioeconomic aspects so pervasive in defense acquisitions. Transaction Cost Economics provides a framework for determining the most cost-effective type of contract governance for each transaction. Systems theory explores the degree of interdependence between the buyers and sellers systems. Each theory contributes unique insights into defense buyer-seller relationships that can be used to judge the appropriateness of contracting laws, regulations, policies, and management approaches for specific acquisition environments.

Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact Or Fiction, David D. Christensen

Faculty Publications

Program managers are advocates by necessity, When taken to the extreme, program advocacy can result in the suppression of adverse information about the status of a program gram. Such was the case in the Navy's A-12 Program. In A-12 Administrative inquiry, Beach (1990) speculates that such abiding cultural problems were not unique to the Navy. To test that assertion, this paper examines cost overrun data on 64 completed acquisition contracts extracted from the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary database. Cost overruns at various contract completion points are compared with projected final cost overruns estimated by contractor and government personnel. 17 comparison …