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Risk Analysis Commons

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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

Toward Risk Assessment 2.0: Safety Supervisory Control And Model-Based Hazard Monitoring For Risk-Informed Safety Interventions, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh Aug 2016

Toward Risk Assessment 2.0: Safety Supervisory Control And Model-Based Hazard Monitoring For Risk-Informed Safety Interventions, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh

Faculty Publications

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA׳s limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the …


Temporal Logic For System Safety Properties And Hazard Monitoring, Francesca Favaro, J. Saleh Jan 2016

Temporal Logic For System Safety Properties And Hazard Monitoring, Francesca Favaro, J. Saleh

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Software In Military Aviation And Drone Mishaps: Analysis And Recommendations For The Investigation Process, Veronica Foreman, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh, Christopher Johnson May 2015

Software In Military Aviation And Drone Mishaps: Analysis And Recommendations For The Investigation Process, Veronica Foreman, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh, Christopher Johnson

Faculty Publications

Software plays a central role in military systems. It is also an important factor in many recent incidents and accidents. A safety gap is growing between our software-intensive technological capabilities and our understanding of the ways they can fail or lead to accidents. Traditional forms of accident investigation are poorly equipped to trace the sources of software failure, for instance software does not age in the same way that hardware components fail over time. As such, it can be hard to trace the causes of software failure or mechanisms by which it contributed to accidents back into the development and …


System Safety Principles: A Multidisciplinary Engineering Perspective, Joseph Saleh, Karen Marais, Francesca Favaro May 2014

System Safety Principles: A Multidisciplinary Engineering Perspective, Joseph Saleh, Karen Marais, Francesca Favaro

Faculty Publications

System safety is of particular importance for many industries. Broadly speaking, it refers to the state or objective of striving to sustainably ensure accident prevention through actions on multiple safety levers (technical, organizational, and regulatory). While complementary to risk analysis, it is distinct in one important way: risk analysis is anticipatory rationality examining the possibility of adverse events (or accident scenarios), and the tools of risk analysis support and in some cases quantify various aspects of this analysis effort. The end-objective of risk analysis is to help identify and prioritize risks, inform risk management, and support risk communication. These tools …


Analysis Of Software Contributions To Military Aviation And Drone Mishaps, Veronica Foreman, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh Jan 2014

Analysis Of Software Contributions To Military Aviation And Drone Mishaps, Veronica Foreman, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh

Faculty Publications

Software is assuming an increasing role in the aerospace industry, and by the same token it is also playing an increasing role in many recent incidents and accidents of both military and commercial vehicles. To better understand this role, we examine two case studies from the accident database of the Air Force Accident Investigation Board (AIB). We previously illustrated the limitations of the notion of “software failure” and developed, in its stead, the notion of software contribution to adverse events. We show here how specific operational scenarios, generally unconsidered during the software development and testing, trigger those contributions. We provide …