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Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
Theses and Dissertations
Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …
Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth
Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth
Theses and Dissertations
The accuracy of cost estimates is vital during this era of budget constraints. A key component of this accuracy is regularly updating the cost estimate at completion (EAC). A 2014 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) improved the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion (EAC) for space system contracts. The study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying duration estimate was accurate. This research attempts to improve the accuracy of the duration estimate from the AFCAA study; accuracy is evaluated with the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The methods researched here …