Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Aircraft Demand Forecasting, Kayla M. Monahan

Masters Theses

This thesis aims to forecast aircraft demand in the aerospace and defense industry, specifically aircraft orders and deliveries. Orders are often placed by airline companies with aircraft manufacturers, and then suddenly canceled due to changes in plans. Therefore, at some point during the three-year lead time, the number of orders placed and realized deliveries may be quite different. As a result, orders and deliveries are very difficult to predict and are influenced by many different factors. Among these factors are past trends, macroeconomic indicators as well as aircraft sales measures. These predictor variables were analyzed thoroughly, then used with time …