Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

A Predictive Game Theoretic Model To Assess Us - Russian Response To An Islamic Safe-Haven In The Caucasus Region, Christopher Wayne Hartline

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The thesis examines possible US and Russian policy decisions following the establishment of an Islamist safe-haven in Chechnya. Conflicting national policies affect the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Domestic and international political considerations constrain the decision-making of the two nations. The author applies game theory to examine the sequential decision-making of the two nations. The extensive form model draws outcome payoff values from a bounded uniform distribution. This approach naturally models uncertainty; and, it allows repeated probabilistic instantiations of the model. These instantiations produce a range of solutions. The most likely outcome was a negotiated settlement, generally following a tit-for-tat …