Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

A Hierarchial Neural Network Implementation For Forecasting, B. Fulkerson, M. A. Ozbayoglu, Cihan H. Dagli

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, a hierarchical neural network architecture for forecasting time series is presented. The architecture is composed of two hierarchical levels using a maximum likelihood competitive learning algorithm. The first level of the system has three experts each using backpropagation and a gating network to partition the input space in order to map the input vectors to the output vectors. The second level of the hierarchical network has an expert using fuzzy ART for producing the correct trend coming from the first level. The experiments show that the resulting network is capable of forecasting the changes in the input …