Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment And Evidential Credibility, Patrick Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist …